. A few showers should develop over the North interior and North Coast by midday or so. For the Puget Sound area — the main shot at any precipitation comes with a convergence zone that will form sometime after 21Z
before eventually dissipating over the Central Cascades late tonight. Both the WRF GFS and NAM models are insistent that we will get at least some precipitation out of the the Puget Sound convergence zone — between one and two tenths of an inch in the Seattle metropolitan area. The Cascades from King County Northward could get as much as a half inch. Precip chances were edged up slightly from the previous forecast. Today will be the coolest day in over a week. It will be interesting to see if sea tac manages 70 degrees. If it doesnt get there — our 70 degree or higher streak would end at 53 days which is now 2nd longest in the Seattle areas 121 year climate record. The upper level trough axis shifts into Northwest Montana by early Thursday morning
with a low amplitude upper level ridge building into Western Washington . Except for a few morning showers in the mountains — it will be a dry day on Thursday. Inland areas should be mostly sunny by afternoon while low level moisture could hang on a little longer near the coast with persistent onshore flow. Temperatures will rebound closer to climatic average on Thursday. The upper level ridge axis will shift East of the region by Friday afternoon
. 850 millibar temperatures peak near 12 or 13c on Friday — which translates to the warmest spots Seattle Southward warming to near 80. .
Long-term: — models are in good agreement with another upper level trough affecting the region this weekend
. None of the models are quick with ejecting the trough Eastward — so we are probably looking at several days of mostly cloudy skies — near or below normal temps — and chance of showers mainly for the coastal and mountain areas. The models start to go off the rails by the middle of next week with some pushing the trough Eastward and others forming a cutoff low to our South. Little change was Made to the extended forecast overnight. 27
will move Southeast down the B. C. Coast and over Southwest B. C. By 00Z this afternoon
. Strong onshore flow developed last night which has brought more marine air over the West WA interior. With no visible stratus on the coast last evening it will take until close to sunrise this morning for stratus to begin forming over the interior. The marine layer should be moderately deep with Marginal Visual Flight Rules ceilings expected. Ceilings will lift this afternoon — but the approaching upper level low will provide enough lift to maintain Visual Flight Rules broken ceilings after 18Z. Scattered showers should develop in the afternoon as the low moves down over cyvr. sea — good Visual Flight Rules conditions should continue until around 12Z when Marginal Visual Flight Rules stratus should begin forming. The stratus will lift in the late morning and afternoon for layers scattered broken clouds at 3000 ft. bkn050. A few light showers may develop this afternoon. Surface winds will remain South Southwest up to 6 knots this morning — then 5-10 knots this afternoon. Kam
. Strong onshore flow last night brought Gale force winds to the Central and East Strait of Juan de Fuca. The Gale is still hanging on but winds should ease back to 15 to 25 knots early this morning. Both the arw and the Canadian lam maintain 15 to 25 kt Small Craft Advisory level winds in the Strait today before increasing the winds again to high end Small Craft Advisory this afternoon and tonight
. Both models also push the Small Craft Advisory winds over the parts of the North inland waters and Admiralty Inlet adjacent to the Strait — so Small Craft Advisory have been issued for both areas. A weak ridge will form just offshore Thursday night
for slightly weaker onshore flow. Moderate to strong onshore flow will redevelop Friday night — just ahead of a weak cold front approaching the area
. The front will move inland late Friday night or Saturday morning. Behind the front — a weak surface ridge will build along the coast this weekend. At this point with the surface ridge over West WA
— the 00Z WRF GFS is showing sub Small Craft Advisory winds in the Strait for Saturday and Sunday. Seems weird and a little hard to believe after the persistent onshore flow we have had for most of this summer. Kam
Gale Warning Central Strait and East entrance tonight. Small Craft Advisory Admiralty Inlet tonight.
The Area Forecast Discussion is issued four times daily around 3AM, 9AM, 3PM, and 9PM.
The original form of the discussion, in all CAPS can be found at http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/SEW/AFDSEW or With hyperlinks to Jargon http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?prod=XXXAFDSEW&wfo=sew&dict=no&version=0
Another form with hyperlinks to images referenced in the discussion can be found at: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/sew/gafd/latest_webafd.html
A complete list of airport weather stations used for the METAR reporting system is at: http://adds.aviationweather.gov/metars/stations.txt . Regional airports weather station designations are at the bottom of this page.
For a Glossary of jargon used in these discussions see this link
NWS Glossary lookup. You can either type in the word you are looking for in the box below or browse by letter.
Browse by letter:#
A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
To learn about cloud types see this article with pictures
Under normal conditions, a 1000 mb height is near the surface (sea level - 400 ft),
standard sea level pressure is 1013.25 mb at 15C°
By looking up current pressure and temperature, we can calculate what the standard mb height levels are today.
Standard sea level pressure is 1013.25 mb at 15C° — also known as a standard atmosphere.
Most of the time,
1000 mb is near the surface (sea level - 400 ft) (In really deep low pressure, Sea level pressure can drop well below 990mb.)
850 mb is near 1,500 meters (5,000 ft),
700 mb is near 3,000 meters (10,000 ft),
500 mb is near 5,500 meters (18,000 ft),
300 mb is near 9,300 meters (30,000 ft).
*Note: When 500mb heights are said to be "rising to 540" it means 5400m above sea level. (height above zero geopotential meters.)
But, confusingly, when discussing 850mb heights, the convention is to omit the leading 1, so that 850mb heights of "540 dam" are actually 1540 meters above sea level.
(What committee came up with all this? I guess we have to remember that bits used to be very expensive.)
Just remember that when (constant pressure) heights rise it means that the pressure on the surface is rising too. More on heights and how they are reported: http://www.theweatherprediction.com/basic/obs/
For Cloud levels (aka ceilings) in the untranslated discussion: Just add two zeros to the right to get the actual forecast cloud level in feet. So 030 is 3,000ft.
Alternate Weather Jargon glossaries:
NWS official glossary -- Very complete except for idiosyncratic forecasters Or use above form.
Contractions only from NOAA
METAR interpretation http://weather.cod.edu/notes/metar.html
NOAA's official abbreviations http://weather.cod.edu/notes/abrv.html
Acronyms ACARS Aeronautical Radio Communications Addressing Reporting System VFR Visual Flight Rules Numerical Forecast Models Abbreviations CMC Canadian Meteorological Centre ECMWF European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts GEM Global Environment Multiscale (CMC's short-range model) GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's Hurricane Model GFS Global Forecast System (formerly known as the AVN and MRF) MM5 Penn State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research's Mesoscale Model NAM North American Mesoscale (formerly known as the Eta) NGM Nested Grid Model NOGAPS Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System RUC Rapid Update Cycle Forecast Model SREF Short Range Ensemble Forecasts UKMET United Kingdom Meteorological Office Washington Airports and other NWS stations elevations in meters N W elev WA ARLINGTON MUNI KAWO 48 10N 122 10W 42 WA BELLINGHAM KBLI 48 48N 122 32W 50 WA WHATCOM (BLI) KHUH 48 57N 122 35W 26 WA BREMERTON NTNL KPWT 47 30N 122 45W 147 WA BURLINGTON/MT V KBVS 48 28N 122 25W 43 WA CHEHALIS CENTRAL KCLS 46 41N 122 59W 54 WA COLVILLE MUNICIP KCQV 48 32N 117 52W 572 WA DEER PARK KDEW 47 58N 117 26W 668 WA EASTSOUND/ORCAS KORS 48 42N 122 54W 8 WA ELLENSBURG KELN 47 02N 120 32W 519 WA EPHRATA KEPH 47 18N 119 31W 383 WA EVERETT KPAE 47 55N 122 17W 180 WA FAIRCHILD AFB KSKA 47 37N 117 39W 750 WA FORT LEWIS/GRAY KGRF 47 04N 122 34W 92 WA FRIDAY HARBOR KFHR 48 31N 123 02W 32 WA HANFORD KHMS 46 34N 119 35W 223 WA HOQUIAM KHQM 46 58N 123 56W 7 WA KELSO LONGVEIW KKLS 46 07N 122 54W 5 WA MOSES LAKE KMWH 47 12N 119 19W 362 WA OAK HARBOR AIRPA K76S 48 15N 122 40W 58 WA OLYMPIA KOLM 46 58N 122 54W 58 WA OMAK KOMK 48 28N 119 31W 395 WA PASCO KPSC 46 16N 119 07W 121 WA PORT ANGELES KCLM 48 07N 123 30W 85 WA PULLMAN/MOSCOW KPUW 46 45N 117 07W 773 WA PUYALLOP/THUN KPLU 47 06N 122 17W 164 WA QUILLAYUTE KUIL 47 56N 124 33W 54 WA RENTON KRNT 47 30N 122 13W 21 WA SEATTLE/BOEING KBFI 47 33N 122 19W 4 WA SEATTLE/METRO KSEA 47 27N 122 19W 136 WA SEATTLE/WFO KSEW 47 27N 122 18W 130 WA SEATTLE/ARTCC KZSE 47 17N 122 11W 99 WA SEATTLE/CAMANO I KATX 48 12N 122 30W 151 WA SHELTON KSHN 47 14N 123 08W 82 WA SPOKANE KOTX 47 41N 117 38W 727 WA SPOKANE/FELTS KSFF 47 41N 117 19W 609 WA SPOKANE/METRO KGEG 47 37N 117 32W 735 WA STAMPEDE PASS KSMP 47 17N 121 20W 1208 WA TACOMA KTIW 47 16N 122 35W 89 WA TACOMA/MC CHORD KTCM 47 07N 122 28W 98 WA TATOOSH/VOR KTOU 48 18N 124 38W 520 WA TOLEDO WINLOCK M KTDO 46 28N 122 47W 113 WA VANCOUVER KVUO 45 37N 122 39W 8 WA WALLA WALLA KALW 46 06N 118 17W 363 WA WENATCHEE KEAT 47 24N 120 12W 377 WA WHIDBEY IS. NAS KNUW 48 21N 122 39W 14 WA YAKIMA KYKM 46 34N 120 32W 324 WA BURLINGTON/MT V K75S 48 28N 122 25W 43 WA COLVILLE K63S 48 32N 117 52W 571 WA DEER PARK K07S 47 58N 117 26W 668 WA DESTRUCTION ISL 47 40N 124 31W 21 WA PORT ANGELES CG KNOW 48 08N 123 25W 4 WA SMITH ISLAND 48 19N 122 10W 15 WA PEARSON/VANCOUVR K60S 45 37N 122 39W 8 WA WEST POINT (LS) 47 40N 122 34W 3 BC ABBOTSFORD AIRPO CYXX 49 01N 122 22W 58 BC AGASSIZ (AUTO) CWZA 49 15N 121 46W 15 BC ENTRANCE IL AUTO CWEL 49 13N 123 47W 5 BC ESQUIMALT METOC CWPF 48 25N 123 25W 12 BC HOPE AIRPORT (MA CYHE 49 22N 121 28W 39 BC HOPE SLIDE CWKV 49 16N 121 13W 674 BC KELP REEFS CWZO 48 33N 123 14W 1 BC MALAHAT (AUTOB) CWKH 48 34N 123 34W 366 BC MERRY ISLAND CWMR 49 28N 123 55W 8 BC MT SICKER RADAR CXSI 48 51N 123 45W 1 BC NANAIMO AIRPORT CYCD 49 02N 123 52W 28 BC P. MEADOWS CS AU CWMM 49 12N 122 40W 5 BC RACE ROCKS AUTOB CWQK 48 17N 123 31W 5 BC SAND headS (LS) CWVF 49 06N 123 18W 1 BC SATURNA ISL (MAP CWEZ 48 46N 123 02W 7 BC SHERINGHAM AUTOB CWSP 48 22N 123 55W 21 BC SQUAMISH (AUTOB) CWSK 49 46N 123 10W 60 BC VANCOUVER (AUTOB CWHC 49 17N 123 07W 2 BC VANCOUVER INTL A CYVR 49 10N 123 10W 2 BC VIC. HARTLAND AU CWVV 48 31N 123 28W 49 BC VICTORIA (AUTOB) CWLM 48 25N 123 19W 70 BC VICTORIA HARBOUR CYWH 48 25N 123 23W 10 BC VICTORIA INTL AR CYYJ 48 38N 123 25W 19 BC VICTORIA UNIV CWYJ 48 28N 123 18W 39 BC W VANCOUVER AUTO CWWA 49 21N 123 10W 178 BC WHITE ROCK AUTOB CWWK 49 01N 122 46W 15