Whidbey Island Forecast and Observations

Whidbey Island Observations and Predictions
NWS Weather Simulation Model Forecasts all wind speeds in Knots.
10 knots → 11.5 mph → 18.5 kph

Tatoosh and Smith data last acquired Sunday, Nov 15, 2009 at 7:49PM PST click here Tatoosh or Smith Islands for most recent obs.
Usually, good West winds when Tatoosh is .03" (1 millibar) higher than Smith. (according to LW)
The Tatoosh to Whidbey Island pressure difference is currently -0.18 in
Tatoosh	Tatoosh 5-day Atmospheric Pressure	Atmospheric Pressure (PRES):	29.67 in
Smith	Smith 5-day Plot Atmospheric Pressure	Atmospheric Pressure (PRES):	29.82 in

**Smith Island Continuous Winds** (Source data updated hourly hh:18)
TIME (PST)	WDIR	WSPD
7:00 pm	SSE ( 165 deg )	37 kts
6:50 pm	SSE ( 163 deg )	36 kts
6:40 pm	SSE ( 164 deg )	37 kts
6:30 pm	SSE ( 161 deg )	37 kts
6:20 pm	SSE ( 162 deg )	37 kts
6:10 pm	SSE ( 162 deg )	38 kts

RASP FORECAST SURFACE MAPS(new ones posted early AM and mid evening when available) Animated loop
| 5AM | 6AM | 7AM | 8AM | 9AM | 10AM | 11AM | noon | 1PM | 2PM | 3PM | 4PM | 5PM | 6PM | 7PM | 8PM | 9PM | 10PM
Sunsight today 7:19 AM PST Sunclipse today 4:30 PM PST

Whidbey NAS (MOS Forecasts last acquired fromhttp://www.fdtb.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmav.pl?sta=KNUW and http://www.fdtb.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmet.pl?sta=KNUW on Sunday, Nov 15, 2009 at 7:42PM PST)
Smith Island (MOS Forecasts last acquired fromhttp://www.fdtb.noaa.gov/mdl/forecast/text/nammme.txt and http://www.fdtb.noaa.gov/mdl/forecast/text/gfsmmg.txt on Sunday, Nov 15, 2009 at 7:42PM PST)
Whidbey Naval Air Station: Forecast Wind Speed (knots) and direction (azimuth) from the NAM forecast KNUW.

NAM MOS Forecast for Whidbey Naval Air Station KNUW   NAM Model run on   11/16/2009  at 0000UTC (-8 4PM PST)                      
Forecast Hour PST   10P|1AM 4AM 7AM 10A 1PM 4PM 7PM 10P|1AM 4AM 7AM 10A 1PM 4PM 7PM 10P|1AM 4AM 10A 4PM 
Wind Direction deg  140 140 150 150 150 160 170 130 140 160 160 180 180 170 170 230 270 130 130 130 130 
Forecast Wind kts    29  33  32  24  24  24  14  18  19  27  25  27  17  15   9  10   4   8  10  14  11 

GFS MOS Forecast for Whidbey Naval Air Station KNUW   GFS Model run on   11/15/2009  at 1800UTC (-8 10AM PST)                      
Forecast Hour PST   4PM 7PM 10P|1AM 4AM 7AM 10A 1PM 4PM 7PM 10P|1AM 4AM 7AM 10A 1PM 4PM 7PM 10P|4AM 10A 
Wind Direction deg  140 140 140 140 140 130 150 150 140 120 130 140 140 160 150 170 190 150 130 130 130 
Forecast Wind kts    29  28  23  25  27  20  20  21  16  14  25  25  35  29  25  20  15  13  12  14  16

Smith Island: Forecast Wind Speed (knots) and direction (azimuth) (N48.32 W122.84)

NAM MOS Forecast for Smith Island SISW1 NAM Model run on   11/16/2009  at 0000UTC (-8 4PM PST)                      
Forecast Hour PST   10P|1AM 4AM 7AM 10A 1PM 4PM 7PM 10P|1AM 4AM 7AM 10A 1PM 4PM 7PM 10P|1AM 4AM 7AM 10A 
Wind Direction dg   150 140 150 150 160 160 140 130 150 160 170 180 180 180 220 260 240 140 140 150 150 
Forecast Wind kts    31  36  40  28  31  29  18  13  27  36  29  32  23  22  18  11  12  12  15  23  22 
Forecast Wind kts10  29  34  38  26  29  27  17  12  26  34  27  31  22  20  17  10  12  11  14  22  21 
 
 GFS MOS Forecast for Smith Island SISW1  GFS Model run on   11/15/2009  at 1800UTC (-8 10AM PST)                      
Forecast Hour PST   4PM 7PM 10P|1AM 4AM 7AM 10A 1PM 4PM 7PM 10P|1AM 4AM 7AM 10A 1PM 4PM 7PM 10P|1AM 4AM 
Wind Direction dg   140 140 140 150 150 140 150 150 160 130 130 150 140 160 160 190 200 160 140 140 130 
Forecast Wind kts    26  29  30  39  38  24  26  26  18  21  38  43  45  35  35  25  19  15  16  19  20 
Forecast Wind kts10  24  27  29  37  36  23  25  25  17  20  35  41  42  33  33  24  18  14  15  18  19

MOS forecasts last acquired Sunday, Nov 15, 2009 at 7:42PM PST

Below is the 24 hour LAMP Forecast — winds only. Click here for complete LAMP forecast for KNUW last accessed Nov 15 at 7:35PM PST

KNUW WHIDBEY IS.NAS GFS LAMP GUIDANCE 11/16/2009 7:00 PM PST Model Run
Hour	8PM	9PM	10PM	11PM	12AM	1AM	2AM	3AM	4AM	5AM	6AM	7AM	8AM	9AM	10AM	11AM	12PM	1PM	2PM	3PM	4PM	5PM	6PM	7PM	8PM
WDR
WSP	33	33	33	30	30	28	28	29	29	28	27	24	23	24	24	24	25	25	23	22	19	18	17	18	21

RASP Forecast winds for Ft Ebey at 48.220 -122.76 as calculated for 5 different domains

from TJ's DrJack RASP forecasts All speeds are in knots.
The ForecastPd tells how many hours ahead the forecast was for when it was made.

Blipspot	for	16	Nov	2009	--	Ebey	(PNW	region)	4km		grid
VALID.TIME	08:00	09:00	10:00	11:00	12:00	13:00	14:00	15:00	16:00	17:00	18:00	19:00	20:00	VALID.TIME
ForecastPd	16.0h	17.0h	18.0h	19.0h	20.0h	21.0h	22.0h	23.0h	24.0h	25.0h	26.0h	27.0h	--h	ForecastPd
Sfc_W_Dir	162	161	158	155	156	165	166	164	152	154	138	132	-	Sfc_W_Dir
Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt	35	36	36	34	32	29	24	21	19	20	15	13	-	Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt
Blipspot	for	--	Ebey	(BLAN	region)	4km		grid
VALID.TIME	08:00	09:00	10:00	11:00	12:00	13:00	14:00	15:00	16:00	17:00	18:00	19:00	20:00	VALID.TIME
ForecastPd	--h	--h	--h	--h	--h	--h	--h	--h	--h	--h	--h	--h	--h	ForecastPd
Sfc_W_Dir	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	Sfc_W_Dir
Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt
Blipspot	for	15	Nov	2009	--	Ebey	(EBEY	region)	4km		grid
VALID.TIME	08:00	09:00	10:00	11:00	12:00	13:00	14:00	15:00	16:00	17:00	18:00	19:00	20:00	VALID.TIME
ForecastPd	4.0h	5.0h	6.0h	7.0h	8.0h	9.0h	10.0h	11.0h	12.0h	13.0h	14.0h	15.0h	--h	ForecastPd
Sfc_W_Dir	152	152	151	151	151	150	150	151	150	152	153	151	-	Sfc_W_Dir
Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt	30	30	29	29	29	29	29	29	28	28	28	28	-	Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt
Blipspot	for	15	Nov	2009	--	Ebey	(EBEY	region)	1.3km		grid
VALID.TIME	08:00	09:00	10:00	11:00	12:00	13:00	14:00	15:00	16:00	17:00	18:00	19:00	20:00	VALID.TIME
ForecastPd	4.0h	5.0h	6.0h	7.0h	8.0h	9.0h	10.0h	11.0h	12.0h	13.0h	14.0h	15.0h	--h	ForecastPd
Sfc_W_Dir	151	151	148	147	146	146	144	144	146	147	150	152	-	Sfc_W_Dir
Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt	32	33	32	33	33	32	32	31	30	29	29	31	-	Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt
Blipspot	for	15	Nov	2009	--	Ebey	(SKAG	region)	4km		grid
VALID.TIME	08:00	09:00	10:00	11:00	12:00	13:00	14:00	15:00	16:00	17:00	18:00	19:00	20:00	VALID.TIME
ForecastPd	--h	--h	--h	--h	--h	--h	--h	--h	--h	--h	--h	--h	--h	ForecastPd
Sfc_W_Dir	148	150	151	150	150	147	144	145	149	-	-	-	-	Sfc_W_Dir
Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt	21	21	22	22	22	21	21	21	20	-	-	-	-	Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt

If you follow these forecasts, please let me know which one seems to be the more reliable/accurate. They all start from the same raw data, but because they use different boundaries they end up with different results. TJ Hours don't always match for GFS and ETA because GFS runs every 6 hours and eta every 12hours
ETA projections are for 6 through 84 hours in advance, from the initial model times of 0000, and 1200 UTC
GFS projections are for 6 through 84 hours in advance, from the initial model times of 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800.
Only 60 hour forecasts are reported here. LAMP forecast is updated every three hours.

Station	Time	Wind Speed	Wind Direction	Gusting to
Bluff 1mi N. of Ft. Ebey	7:45 PM	26.0 MPH	SE	46.0 MPH
Smith Island	7:00 PM	44mph / 20m/s	S	51mph / 23m/s
Whidbey NAS	6:56 PM	33mph / 15m/s	SE	46mph / 21m/s
Keystone Ferry	7:15 PM	39mph / 17m/s	SE
Race Rocks Bouy	7:00 PM	10mph / 5m/s	N

Metar from KNUW Whidbey Naval Air Station

Conditions at: KNUW (WHIDBEY IS. NAS, WA, US) observed 6:56 PM PST Temperature: 10.0°C (50°F) Dewpoint: 6.1°C (43°F) [RH = 77%] Pressure (altimeter): 29.85 inches Hg (2:10 AM PST.9 mb)
[Sea-level pressure: 1011.2 mb] Winds: from the SSE (150 degrees) at 33 MPH (29 knots; 15.1 m/s)
gusting to 46 MPH (40 knots; 20.8 m/s) Visibility: 10 or more miles (16+ km) Ceiling: 1,800 feet AGL Clouds: few clouds at 1,000 feet AGL
broken clouds at 1,800 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 8,000 feet AGL Weather:
SOME DATA ABOVE MAY BE INACCURATE!!!
"$" is an indication the sensor requires maintenance

Note from El Diablo: "Keystone ferry, NAS Whidbey and Race Rocks data are virtually superfluous to the topic of whether Fort Ebey is, or will be, soarable. These are my own observations from twelve years and well over a thousand hours soaring there."
Jim Martyn (El Diablo) 2 miles north of Fort Ebey, along the bluff
MM5 forecasts (times on UW generated MM5 forecast graphics are always UTC
Note that both Ft. Ebey and Smith Island coordinates generate the same meteogram and sounding from the MM5. The one below is for KNUW, which is different.
That means that according to MM5, the forecast for Ft. Ebey is the SAME as the forecast for Smith Island. Experience has shown that the winds an the Fort can be quite different from Smith Island, so ask a long time Whidbey person for interpretation of the data. Remember that "Whidbey is On" may mean anything from steady 8 mph from SW to gusty 25+mph from the WNW, depending on who is saying it.

Right click on the image and choose "view or show image" to see the whole meteogram.
For soundings and metograms from other domains, use TJ's Weather Widget

NWS Meteogram — Digital Forecast for the next 48 hours:
WRF based meteogram from NWS for Whidbey Island near Ft Ebey

Current winds from the ferry
Anacortes to SanJuan Island
ferry winds

RASP FORECAST SURFACE MAPS Animated loop

| 8AM | 9AM | 10AM | 11AM | noon | 1PM | 2PM | 3PM | 4PM | 5PM | 6PM | 7PM | 8PM
(when available)
Windcasts for the next few hours:
1st

From http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/forecasts/graphical/sectors/sew.php#tabs

Western Washington Forecast graphics for surface level pressure, temperature, and 10M winds SLP
6hr 11 o'clock	9hr 2 o'clock	12hr 5 o'clock	15hr 8 o'clock	18hr 11 o'clock	21hr 2 o'clock	24hr 5 o'clock	27hr 8 o'clock
Whether it is AM or PM depends on when the most recent run was completed.

MM5 Time Heights for Whidbey NAS KNUW 4km domain (Forecast soundings over time.)

MM5 Time Heights for Friday Harbor 4km domain (Forecast soundings over time.)

MM5 Time Heights for Victoria BC 4km domain (Forecast soundings over time.)

MM5 Time Heights for Vancouver BC CYVR 4km domain (Forecast soundings over time.)

Fort Ebey 48.23N -122.73W elev. 95ft Graphical 48hrs (click here or scroll down)
USA Forecast for Straight of Juan de Fuca and Admiralty Inlet.
Canadian Forecast for the East end of Straight of Juan de Fuca
All BC Marine Forecasts including Juan de Fuca and Haro Strait
48 hour Digital forecasts for Fort Ebey: On the water || On land

Most recent METARs
Oak Harbor weather camera for sky conditions.
Port Townsend weather camera -- Can be pointed at the Ft. Ebey Baker preset includes most.
Quick pictures of Wind on Ferry routes

Get Ferry Wind picture between Anacortes and San Juan Islands

Get Ferry Wind picture between Port Townsend Keystone Whidbey Island

The official version of ferry winds

View Larger Map
Direct Links to Current Observations
Current and recent Smith Island Observations 48.32 N 122.84 W National Data Bouy network
MesoWest
Table of mesowest stations within 50 miles of Ft. Ebey
Current Whidbey NAS observations 48.22�N, 122.76�W
Oak Harbor Air Park 48.2500�N, 122.6667�W
Near Joeseph Whidbey State Park 48.3067�N, 122.6772�W
Bouy 46088 In water WSW of Ft. Ebey LAT: 48.3 LON -123.2
Race Rocks Bouy Even further West.
Port Townsend
Victoria Automatic station just East of Victoria
Langley Wa, South Whidbey Island

Launch code graphical presentation of MOS GFS/AVN and ETA data

Pretty Launch Code Graphical version of MOS ETA guidance for KNUW
Pretty Launch Code Graphical version of MOS GFS/AVN guidance for KNUW

Pretty Launch Code Graphical version of MOS GFS/AVN guidance for SISW1 Smith Island --- !!! They started doing it!! Thanks Mark!

Near Keystone Ferry Weather site. Lat:48.177� Lon:-122.642� Elevation: 120 ft

West Oceanfront Whidbey, Coupeville, WA
Partridge Point, Coupeville, WA (may be dead)
Crockett Lake, Coupeville, WA
Direct Links to MOS guidance forecasts:

For full explanations of the MOS ETA and the GFS MOS MAV forecasts.
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/products.shtml for all MOS text forecasts.
Full Smith Island ETA forecast
Full Smith Island GFS (AVN/MAV) forecast
Full ETA forecast MOS Whidbey NAS
Full GFS (AVN/MAV) forecast MOS Whidbey NAS
Full NGM Nested Grid Model MOS guidance Whidbey NAS
Localized Aviation MOS Program (Not available for Smith Island)
Full GFS LAMP for Whidbey NAS -- same stuff, but hourly forecasts and updated every 3 hours instead of 6 or 12...
Meteogram of above from LAMP (Requires Java)
All Nested Grid model forecasts were discontinued Jan 18 2008
List of all meso stations within 30 miles of Smith island
Marine forecast for the water out in front of the Fort.

Conversion factors		Enter known speed on right. Click convert.
10 mph →	8.7knots →	16 kph →	4.5 mps
10knots →	11.5 mph →	18.5 kph →	5.14 mps
10 kph →	6.2 mph →	5.4knots →	2.78 mps
1 Meters/second (mps) → 197 feet/minute (fpm)
10 Meters/second (mps) → 36kph → 22.8mph

Forecasts
NWS Forecast Whidbey Island
Pre-set digital forecasts for Flying Sites
New experimental graphical forecast tool
KING 5 TV's most recent video forecast

To Get Digital Forecasts or Topo Maps, TJ's Full Weather Widget
Enter an arbitrary decimal lattitude and longitude (within the continental US for forecast and topo).

Decoding the MOS forecasts:

Aviation (AVN) http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/info/decodemav.php

and Environmental ETA (NGM) http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/info/decodemet.php

DT = Day of the month, denoting the standard 3 or 4 letter station identifier.
HR = Forecast hour, i.e. how many hours from the model run time.
N/X = daytime maximum/nightime minimum surface temperatures.
TMP = surface temperature valid at that hour.
DPT = surface dewpoint valid at that hour.

CLD = forecast categories of total sky cover valid at that hour.
WDR = forecasts of the 10-meter wind direction at the hour, given in tens of degrees.
WSP = forecasts of the 10-meter wind speed at the hour, given in knots.

P06 = probability of precipitation (PoP) during a 6-h period ending at that time.
P12 = PoP during a 12-h period ending at that time.
T06 = probability of thunderstorms/conditional probability of severe thunderstorms during the 6-hr period ending at the indicated time.
T12 = probability of thunderstorms/conditional probability of severe thunderstorms during the 12-hr period ending at the indicated time.

Q06 = quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) category for liquid equivalent precipitation amount during a 6-h period ending at that time.
Q12 = QPF category for liquid equivalent precipitation amount during a 12-h period ending at the indicated time.
SNW = snow fall categorical forecasts during a 24-h period ending at the indicated time.
CIG = ceiling height categorical forecasts at the hour.

Cloud (CLD) Categories
ABBREV	MAV/ETA/NGM octa=1/8 of sky	AVN/GFS/MET
CL	clear	0/10 of opaque clouds
SC	scattered > 0 to 4 octas	1/10 to 5/10 of opaque clouds
BK	broken > 4 to < 8 octas	6/10 to 9/10 of opaque clouds
OV	overcast	10/10 of opaque clouds or totally obscured
XX	MISSING	Missing

MAV Ceiling Height Categories
1	< 200 feet
2	200 - 400 feet
3	500 - 900 feet
4	1000 - 1900 feet
5	2000 - 3000 feet
6	3100 - 6500 feet
7	6600 - 12,000 feet
8	> 12,000 feet or unlimited ceiling

MAV Visibility (VIS) Categories
1	1/2 mile or less
2	more than 1/2 - or less than 1 mile
3	1 mile - less than 2
4	2 - less than 3 miles
5	3 - 5 miles
6	6 miles
7	Vis is > 6 miles

QPF Liquid	QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS: QPF CATEGORIES MAV and MET
0	no precipitation
1	0.01 to 0.09 inches
2	0.10 to 0.24 inches
3	0.25 to 0.49 inches
4	0.50 to 0.99 inches
5	1.00 to 1.99 inches
6	2.00 inches or greater

New Latitude	New Longitude