PM PDT
(MOS Forecasts last acquired from http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/products.shtml on Friday, Jul 25, 2008 at 5:42PM PDT) Whidbey Naval Air Station: Forecast Wind Speed (knots) and direction (azimuth) from the ETA forecast KNUW.
ETA MOS Forecast for Whidbey Naval Air Station KNUW Model run on 7/25/2008 at 1200UTC (-7 5AM PDT)
Forecast Hour PDT 11A 2PM 5PM 8PM 11P|2AM 5AM 8AM 11A 2PM 5PM 8PM 11P|2AM 5AM 8AM 11A 2PM 5PM 11P|5AM
Wind Direction deg 230280250220 200 180 190 170 180 280260240220220220210240270230 200 200
Forecast Wind kts 6 6 6 2 3 2 5 8 7 5 6 4 4 3 3 4 6 6 7 5 5
GFS MOS Forecast for Whidbey Naval Air Station KNUW Model run on 7/25/2008 at 1800UTC (-7 11AM PDT)
Forecast Hour PDT 5PM 8PM 11P|2AM 5AM 8AM 11A 2PM 5PM 8PM 11P|2AM 5AM 8AM 11A 2PM 5PM 8PM 11P|5AM 11A
Wind Direction deg 260210 180 170 150 170 190 260250230230220210220220270270250240 200 240
Forecast Wind kts 5 4 6 6 5 5 7 7 6 5 4 5 6 5 7 7 6 5 4 4 7
Smith Island: Forecast Wind Speed (knots) and direction (azimuth) (N48.32 W122.84)
ETA MOS Forecast for Smith Island SISW1 Model run on 7/25/2008 at 1200UTC (-7 5AM PDT)
Forecast Hour PDT 11A 2PM 5PM 8PM 11P|2AM 5AM 8AM 11A 2PM 5PM 8PM 11P|2AM 5AM 8AM 11A 2PM 5PM 8PM 11P|
Wind Direction dg 200 270250240240240220 170 170 260260240250240240240240240240230220
Forecast Wind kts 4 5 7 998 7 9 6 4 6 91088 6 5 6 7 1211
Forecast Wind kts10 4 4 6 88 7 6 8 6 4 6 99 7 7 6 5 6 7 1210GFS MOS Forecast for Smith Island SISW1 Model run on 7/25/2008 at 1800UTC (-7 11AM PDT)
Forecast Hour PDT 5PM 8PM 11P|2AM 5AM 8AM 11A 2PM 5PM 8PM 11P|2AM 5AM 8AM 11A 2PM 5PM 8PM 11P|2AM 5AM
Wind Direction dg 250220230210 190 180 170 210250240240240230230 200 240250250250250230
Forecast Wind kts 81111998 7 5 7 101010119 7 6 7 111198
Forecast Wind kts108111088 7 7 5 7 91010109 7 6 7 101098
If you follow these forecasts, please let me know which one seems to be the more reliable/accurate. They all start from the same raw data, but because they use different boundaries they end up with different results. TJ
Hours don't always match for GFS and ETA because GFS runs every 6 hours and eta every 12hours
ETA projections are for 6 through 84 hours in advance, from the initial model times of 0000, and 1200 UTC
GFS projections are for 6 through 84 hours in advance, from the initial model times of 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800.
Only 60 hour forecasts are reported here. LAMP forecast is updated every three hours.
from the WSW (250 degrees) at 9 MPH (8 knots; 4.2 m/s)
Visibility:
10 or more miles (16+ km)
Ceiling:
20,000 feet AGL
Clouds:
few clouds at 1,500 feet AGL scattered clouds at 10,000 feet AGL broken clouds at 20,000 feet AGL
Weather:
SOME DATA ABOVE MAY BE INACCURATE!!! "$" is an indication the sensor requires maintenance
Note from El Diablo: "Keystone ferry, NAS Whidbey and Race Rocks data are virtually superfluous to the topic of whether Fort Ebey is, or will be, soarable. These are my own observations from twelve years and well over a thousand hours soaring there."
Jim Martyn (El Diablo)
2 miles north of Fort Ebey, along the bluff
MM5 forecasts
Click here to check for a more recent one. (May happen between 9 and 10 o'clock)
Note that both Ft. Ebey and Smith Island coordinates generate the same meteogram and sounding from the MM5. The one below is for KNUW, which is different.
That means that according to MM5, the forecast for Ft. Ebey is the SAME as the forecast for Smith Island. Experience has shown that the winds an the Fort can be quite different from Smith Island, so ask a long time Whidbey person for interpretation of the data. Remember that "Whidbey is On" may mean anything from steady 8 mph from SW to gusty 25+mph from the WNW, depending on who is saying it.
For soundings and metograms from other domains, use
To Get Digital Forecasts or Topo Maps, TJ's Full Weather Widget Enter an arbitrary decimal lattitude and longitude (within the continental US for forecast and topo).
CLD = forecast categories of total sky cover valid at that hour.
WDR = forecasts of the 10-meter wind direction at the hour, given in tens of degrees.
WSP = forecasts of the 10-meter wind speed at the hour, given in knots.
P06 = probability of precipitation (PoP) during a 6-h period ending at that time.
The 6 hour PoPs are valid for intervals of 6-12, 12-18, 18-24, 24-30, 30-36, 36-42, 42-48, 48-54 and 54-60 hours after the initial data times.
P12 = PoP during a 12-h period ending at that time.
The 12 hour PoPs are valid for intervals of 12-24, 24-36, 36-48 and 48-60 hours after the initial data times.
In the message, the PoPs are tabulated at the end time of the noted time interval. The numeric values of the PoPs are given to the nearest percent, ranging between 0 and 100%. A missing forecast is indicated by "999".
T06 = probability of thunderstorms/conditional probability of severe thunderstorms during the 6-hr period ending at the indicated time.
T12 = probability of thunderstorms/conditional probability of severe thunderstorms during the 12-hr period ending at the indicated time.
Q06 = quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) category for liquid equivalent precipitation amount during a 6-h period ending at that time.
Q12 = QPF category for liquid equivalent precipitation amount during a 12-h period ending at the indicated time.
SNW = snow fall categorical forecasts during a 24-h period ending at the indicated time.
CIG = ceiling height categorical forecasts at the hour.
Cloud (CLD) Categories
ABBREV
MAV/ETA/NGM octa=1/8 of sky
AVN/GFS/MET
CL
clear
0/10 of opaque clouds
SC
scattered > 0 to 4 octas
1/10 to 5/10 of opaque clouds
BK
broken > 4 to < 8 octas
6/10 to 9/10 of opaque clouds
OV
overcast
10/10 of opaque clouds or totally obscured
XX
MISSING
Missing
MAV Ceiling Height Categories
1
< 200 feet
2
200 - 400 feet
3
500 - 900 feet
4
1000 - 1900 feet
5
2000 - 3000 feet
6
3100 - 6500 feet
7
6600 - 12,000 feet
8
> 12,000 feet or unlimited ceiling
MAV Visibility (VIS) Categories
1
1/2 mile or less
2
more than 1/2 - or less than 1 mile
3
1 mile - less than 2
4
2 - less than 3 miles
5
3 - 5 miles
6
6 miles
7
Vis is > 6 miles
QPF Liquid
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS: QPF CATEGORIES MAV and MET
WDIR
