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Whidbey Island Observations and Predictions — Not much better than a crystal ball... Facebook  Digg   StumbleUpon   Twitter   Buzz Up!  
NWS Weather Simulation Model Forecasts all wind speeds in Knots.
10 knots → 11.5 mph → 18.5 kph

Recent Observations     Forecasts Below

Tatoosh and Smith data last acquired Monday, Sep 01, 2014 at 11:58PM PDT
click here Tatoosh or Smith Islands for most recent obs. Usually, good West winds when Tatoosh is .03" (1 millibar) higher than Smith. (according to LW)
With Tatoosh at 30.02 " and Whidbey NAS at - " , the Tatoosh to Whidbey Island pressure difference is currently 30.02 in
Full Smith Island Report from NWS
link to realtime data at wunderground
Current Wind Readings at Ft. Ebey
closest station to Ft Ebey

The sensor is on a bluff just North of FtEbey
link to realtime data at wunderground
Current Wind Readings at Ft. Ebey
closest station to Ft Ebey

The sensor is just North of FtEbey


StationTime Wind SpeedWind DirectionGusting to
< 1 mi N. of Ft. Ebey 11:57 PM 2.9 MPH WSW3.0 MPH
Bluff 1mi N. of Ft. Ebey 11:55 PM 4.0 MPH SW4.0 MPH
Point Wilson 11:10 PM 20mph / 9m/s NW 24mph / 11m/s
Port Townsend 190ft 11:45 PM 8mph / 4m/s NW 18mph / 8m/s
Port Townsend 0 ft 11:24 PM 10mph / 4m/s W 18mph / 8m/s
Smith Island 11:00 PM 20mph / 9m/s W 23mph / 10m/s
Whidbey NAS 11:09 PM 13mph / 6m/s SW
Race Rocks Bouy 11:00 PM 23mph / 10m/s W
Mesowest Bouy 46088 11:20 PM 18mph / 8m/s W 22mph / 10m/s
Metars: Top of Page

Forecasts
RASP FORECAST SURFACE (10M) WIND MAPS(new ones posted early AM and mid evening when available) Small Animated loop
Full scale maps of the ten meter wind:  |  8AM  |  9AM  |  10AM  |  11AM  |  noon  |  1PM  |  2PM  |  3PM  |  4PM  |  5PM  |  6PM  |  7PM  |  8PM
Sunsight 6:27 AM PDT             Sunclipse 7:52 PM PDT

Whidbey NAS (MOS Forecasts last acquired fromhttp://www.fdtb.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmav.pl?sta=KNUW and http://www.fdtb.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmet.pl?sta=KNUW on Monday, Sep 01, 2014 at 11:42PM PDT)
Smith Island (MOS Forecasts last acquired fromhttp://www.fdtb.noaa.gov/mdl/forecast/text/nammme.txt and http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/forecast/text/gfsmmg.txt on Monday, Sep 01, 2014 at 11:42PM PDT)
Whidbey Naval Air Station: Forecast Wind Speed (knots) and direction (azimuth) from the NAM forecast KNUW.
NAM MOS Forecast for Whidbey Naval Air Station KNUW   NAM Model run on    9/02/2014  at 0000UTC (-7 5PM PDT)                      
Forecast Hour PDT   11P|2AM 5AM 8AM 11A 2PM 5PM 8PM 11P|2AM 5AM 8AM 11A 2PM 5PM 8PM 11P|2AM 5AM 11A 5PM 
Wind Direction deg  240 250 240 200 190 170 250 260 260 280 250 190 260 270 280 000 000 000 150 280 260 
Forecast Wind kts    10   8   6   6  10  12  12   9   8   5   4   4   4   4   4   0   0   0   1   4   5 

GFS MOS Forecast for Whidbey Naval Air Station KNUW GFS Model run on 9/02/2014 at 0000UTC (-7 5PM PDT) Forecast Hour PDT 11P|2AM 5AM 8AM 11A 2PM 5PM 8PM 11P|2AM 5AM 8AM 11A 2PM 5PM 8PM 11P|2AM 5AM 11A 5PM Wind Direction deg 250 240 240 200 180 180 230 250 250 260 240 200 270 300 270 290 230 140 130 290 270 Forecast Wind kts 1 4 5 7 14 14 17 12 13 5 6 6 5 5 6 2 2 2 2 6 6
LAMP forecast
LAMP forecast for Whidbey NAS
Smith Island: Forecast Wind Speed (knots) and direction (azimuth) (N48.32 W122.84)
NAM MOS Forecast for Smith Island SISW1 NAM Model run on    9/02/2014  at 0000UTC (-7 5PM PDT)                      
Forecast Hour PDT   11P|2AM 5AM 8AM 11A 2PM 5PM 8PM 11P|2AM 5AM 8AM 11A 2PM 5PM 8PM 11P|2AM 5AM 8AM 11A 
Wind Direction dg   250 250 250 230 210 200 260 260 270 270 240 170 170 240 270 280 260 250 260 300 270 
Forecast Wind kts    17  15  12   9  12  15  13  12  11   8   6   5   4   2   3   3   3   4   5   4   5 
Forecast Wind kts10  16  14  12   9  11  14  12  12  11   8   5   4   3   2   3   3   2   4   5   3   4 
 
 GFS MOS Forecast for Smith Island SISW1  GFS Model run on    9/02/2014  at 0000UTC (-7 5PM PDT)                      
Forecast Hour PDT   11P|2AM 5AM 8AM 11A 2PM 5PM 8PM 11P|2AM 5AM 8AM 11A 2PM 5PM 8PM 11P|2AM 5AM 8AM 11A 
Wind Direction dg   250 250 230 200 160 180 260 280 270 250 240 200 150 250 250 270 260 240 250 250 250 
Forecast Wind kts     8   9   8   9  10  12  14  11   9  10   9   5   4   3   4   5   4   5   5   4   3 
Forecast Wind kts10   8   9   8   8   9  11  14  11   9   9   8   5   4   3   3   5   4   5   4   4   3 
MOS forecasts last acquired Monday, Sep 01, 2014 at 11:42PM PDT

Below is the 24 hour LAMP Forecast — winds only. Click here for complete LAMP forecast for KNUW last accessed Sep 01 at 11:35PM PDT
KNUW WHIDBEY IS.NAS GFS LAMP GUIDANCE 9/02/2014 11:00 PM PDT Model Run
Hour 12AM 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10AM 11AM 12PM 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10PM 11PM 12AM
WDR
WSP 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 59111413131413151713151414141412

Tides Today at Ft. Ebey:
09/02 Tue 03:52 AM 0.47ft   Low Tide     
09/02 Tue 12:00 PM 5.96ft   High Tide     
09/02 Tue 03:59 PM 5.22ft   Low Tide     
09/02 Tue 09:47 PM 6.89ft   High Tide     
09/03 Wed 04:54 AM 0.15ft   Low Tide     
09/03 Wed 01:32 PM 6.31ft   High Tide     
09/03 Wed 05:20 PM 5.43ft   Low Tide     
09/03 Wed 10:44 PM 6.81ft   High Tide     

Full Tide Table for Ft. Ebey Partridge Point.

Blipspot for 2 Sep 2014 -- Ebey (PNW region) 4km grid
VALID.TIME 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 VALID.TIME
10M_Wind_Dir 199 176 239 228 187 174 180 175 173 256 270 283 285 10M_Wind_Dir
Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt 3 2 3 5 7 7 7 6 4 7 13 12 10 Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt
10M_Wind_Sp_Kt 3 2 3 5 7 8 7 6 4 7 14 13 11 10M_Wind_Sp_Kt

If you follow these forecasts, please let me know which one seems to be the more reliable/accurate. They start from the same raw data, but because they use different boundaries they end up with different results. TJ Hours don't always match for GFS and ETA because GFS runs every 6 hours and eta every 12hours
ETA projections are for 6 through 84 hours in advance, from the initial model times of 0000, and 1200 UTC
GFS projections are for 6 through 84 hours in advance, from the initial model times of 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800.
Only 60 hour forecasts are reported here. LAMP forecast is updated every three hours.


MM5 forecasts (times on UW generated MM5 forecast graphics are always UTC
For soundings and metograms from other domains, useTJ's Weather Widget

NWS Meteogram — Digital Forecast for the next 48 hours:
WRF based meteogram from NWS for Whidbey Island near Ft Ebey
Current winds from the ferrys

RASP FORECAST SURFACE MAPS Small Animated loop

Full scale maps: 8AM | 9AM | 10AM | 11AM | noon | 1PM | 2PM | 3PM | 4PM | 5PM | 6PM | 7PM | 8PM
(when available)
Windcasts for the next few hours:
1st 2nd 3rd
4th 5th 5th
From http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/forecasts/graphical/sectors/sew.php#tabs
UW's Western Washington Forecast graphics for surface level pressure, temperature, and 10M winds SLP 1.3km resolution
    6hr     
11 o'clock
     9hr     
2 o'clock
    12hr     
5 o'clock
    15hr     
8 o'clock
    18hr     
11 o'clock
    21hr     
2 o'clock
    24hr     
5 o'clock
   27hr     
8 o'clock
UWWhether it is AM or PM depends on when the most recent run was completed. current 5 maps on one page.
UW< href="uw13kmsfcwind_18.html" title="UW 18-15 "> ahead 12hrs 5 maps on one page.
UW ahead 24hrs 7 maps
Link to all available UW 1.3km forecast maps.
MM5 Time Heights for Whidbey NAS KNUW 4km domain (Forecast soundings over time.)
MM5 Time Heights for Friday Harbor 4km domain (Forecast soundings over time.)
MM5 Time Heights for Victoria BC 4km domain (Forecast soundings over time.)
MM5 Time Heights for Vancouver BC CYVR 4km domain (Forecast soundings over time.)

Fort Ebey 48.23N -122.73W elev. 95ft   Graphical 48hrs (click here or scroll down)
Port Angeles RUC Meteogram from FSL
Canadian Forecast for the East end of Straight of Juan de Fuca
All BC Marine Forecasts including Juan de Fuca and Haro Strait
48 hour Digital forecasts for Fort Ebey:      On the water  ||     On land
  • Most recent METARs
    Oak Harbor weather camera for sky conditions.
    Port Townsend weather camera -- Can be pointed at the Ft. Ebey Baker preset includes most.
    Quick pictures of Wind on Ferry routes
    Get Ferry Wind picture between Anacortes and San Juan Islands
    Get Ferry Wind picture between Port Townsend Keystone Whidbey Island
    The official version of ferry winds

    View Larger Map
    Direct Links to Current Observations
    Current and recent Smith Island Observations 48.32 N 122.84 W National Data Bouy network
    Marrowstone bouy right off the Ft Flagler Pennsula
    Fort Worden bouy East of Port Townsend
    MesoWest
    Table of mesowest stations within 50 miles of Ft. Ebey
    Current Whidbey NAS observations 48.22N, 122.76W
    Oak Harbor Air Park 48.2500N, 122.6667W
    Near Joeseph Whidbey State Park 48.3067N, 122.6772W
    Bouy 46088 In water WSW of Ft. Ebey LAT: 48.3 LON -123.2
    Race Rocks Bouy Even further West.
    Port Townsend
    Victoria Automatic station just East of Victoria
    Langley Wa, South Whidbey Island

    Launch code graphical presentation of MOS GFS/AVN and ETA/NAM data


    Pretty Launch Code Graphical version of MOS ETA/NAM guidance for KNUW
    Pretty Launch Code Graphical version of MOS GFS/AVN guidance for KNUW

    Pretty Launch Code Graphical version of MOS GFS/AVN guidance for SISW1 Smith Island --- !!! They started doing it!! Thanks Mark!
    Near Keystone Ferry Weather site.   Lat:48.177   Lon:-122.642   Elevation: 120 ft
    West Oceanfront Whidbey, Coupeville, WA
    Partridge Point, Coupeville, WA (may be dead)
    Crockett Lake, Coupeville, WA
    Direct Links to MOS guidance forecasts:
    For full explanations of the MOS ETA/NAM and the GFS MOS MAV forecasts.
    http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/products.shtml for all MOS text forecasts.
    Full Smith Island ETA/NAM forecast
    Full Smith Island GFS (AVN/MAV) forecast
    Full ETA/NAM forecast MOS Whidbey NAS
    Full GFS (AVN/MAV) forecast MOS Whidbey NAS
    Full NGM Nested Grid Model MOS guidance Whidbey NAS
    Localized Aviation MOS Program (Not available for Smith Island)
    Full GFS LAMP for Whidbey NAS -- same stuff, but hourly forecasts and updated every 3 hours instead of 6 or 12...
    Meteogram of above from LAMP (Requires Java)
    All Nested Grid model forecasts were discontinued Jan 18 2008
    List of all meso stations within 30 miles of Smith island
    Marine forecast for the water out in front of the Fort.
    "Translated" Marine forecast for the water out in front of the Fort. | ORIGINAL
    Conversion factors Enter known speed on
    right. Click convert.
    10 mph → 8.7knots →16 kph → 4.5 mps
    10knots → 11.5 mph → 18.5 kph → 5.14 mps
    10 kph → 6.2 mph → 5.4knots → 2.78 mps
    1 Meters/second (mps) → 197 feet/minute (fpm)
    10 Meters/second (mps) → 36kph → 22.8mph





    miles (mph)
    knots (kt)
    kilometers (km/h)
    meters/sec (m/s)
    (ft/sec) (ft/min)
    Beaufort
      

    Point Partridge todays tides
    Monthly tides for Point Partridge , light house.
    Map with tide links
    OA
    | TJ's Blanchard Page | TJ's Weather site map what else is available here. | All TJ's Weather and Paragliding links | Current conditions from APRS stations and wunderground | Digital Forecasts for flying sites |
    | Rapid Update soundings for flying sites | Wind's aloft Seattle and Vancouver | NWS normal weather forecasts |



    Forecasts
    NWS Forecast Whidbey Island
    NWS forecast classic format

    Pre-set digital forecasts for Flying Sites
    New experimental graphical forecast tool
    KING 5 TV's most recent video forecast

    To Get Digital Forecasts or Topo Maps,       TJ's Full Weather Widget
    Enter an arbitrary decimal lattitude and longitude (within the continental US for forecast and topo).
    New Latitude New Longitude

    Decoding the MOS forecasts:

  • Aviation (AVN) http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/info/decodemav.php
  • and Environmental ETA/NAM (NGM) http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/info/decodemet.php
    Cloud (CLD) Categories
     ABBREV  MAV/ETA/NGM octa=1/8 of sky AVN/GFS/MET
    CL clear 0/10 of opaque clouds
    SC scattered > 0 to 4 octas 1/10 to 5/10 of opaque clouds
    BK broken > 4 to < 8 octas 6/10 to 9/10 of opaque clouds
    OV overcast 10/10 of opaque clouds
    or totally obscured
    XX MISSING Missing
    MAV Ceiling Height Categories
    1 < 200 feet
    2 200 - 400 feet
    3 500 - 900 feet
    4 1000 - 1900 feet
    5 2000 - 3000 feet
    6 3100 - 6500 feet
    7 6600 - 12,000 feet
    8 > 12,000 feet or unlimited ceiling
    MAV Visibility (VIS) Categories
    1 1/2 mile or less
    2 more than 1/2 - or less than 1 mile
    3 1 mile - less than 2
    4 2 - less than 3 miles
    5 3 - 5 miles
    6 6 miles
    7 Vis is > 6 miles
    QPF Liquid QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS:
    QPF CATEGORIES MAV and MET
    0 no precipitation
    1 0.01 to 0.09 inches
    2 0.10 to 0.24 inches
    3 0.25 to 0.49 inches
    4 0.50 to 0.99 inches
    5 1.00 to 1.99 inches
    6 2.00 inches or greater


    Ebey Watchers?