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Whidbey Island Observations and Predictions
NWS Weather Simulation Model Forecasts all wind speeds in Knots.
10 knots → 11.5 mph → 18.5 kph
Tatoosh and Smith data last acquired Sunday, Nov 15, 2009 at 7:49PM PST
click here Tatoosh or Smith Islands for most recent obs.
Usually, good West winds when Tatoosh is .03" (1 millibar) higher than Smith. (according to LW)
The Tatoosh to Whidbey Island pressure difference is currently -0.18 in
TatooshTatoosh 5-day Atmospheric PressureAtmospheric Pressure (PRES):29.67 in
SmithSmith 5-day Plot Atmospheric PressureAtmospheric Pressure (PRES):29.82 in
link to realtime data at wunderground
Smith Island Continuous Winds (Source data updated hourly hh:18)
TIME
(PST)
5-day plot - Wind Direction WDIR5-day plot - Wind Speed WSPD
7:00 pmSSE ( 165 deg ) 37 kts
6:50 pmSSE ( 163 deg ) 36 kts
6:40 pmSSE ( 164 deg ) 37 kts
6:30 pmSSE ( 161 deg ) 37 kts
6:20 pmSSE ( 162 deg ) 37 kts
6:10 pmSSE ( 162 deg ) 38 kts

RASP FORECAST SURFACE MAPS(new ones posted early AM and mid evening when available) Animated loop
| 5AM | 6AM | 7AM | 8AM | 9AM | 10AM | 11AM | noon | 1PM | 2PM | 3PM | 4PM | 5PM | 6PM | 7PM | 8PM | 9PM | 10PM
Sunsight today 7:19 AM PST             Sunclipse today 4:30 PM PST

Whidbey NAS (MOS Forecasts last acquired fromhttp://www.fdtb.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmav.pl?sta=KNUW and http://www.fdtb.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmet.pl?sta=KNUW on Sunday, Nov 15, 2009 at 7:42PM PST)
Smith Island (MOS Forecasts last acquired fromhttp://www.fdtb.noaa.gov/mdl/forecast/text/nammme.txt and http://www.fdtb.noaa.gov/mdl/forecast/text/gfsmmg.txt on Sunday, Nov 15, 2009 at 7:42PM PST)
Whidbey Naval Air Station: Forecast Wind Speed (knots) and direction (azimuth) from the NAM forecast KNUW.
NAM MOS Forecast for Whidbey Naval Air Station KNUW   NAM Model run on   11/16/2009  at 0000UTC (-8 4PM PST)                      
Forecast Hour PST   10P|1AM 4AM 7AM 10A 1PM 4PM 7PM 10P|1AM 4AM 7AM 10A 1PM 4PM 7PM 10P|1AM 4AM 10A 4PM 
Wind Direction deg  140 140 150 150 150 160 170 130 140 160 160 180 180 170 170 230 270 130 130 130 130 
Forecast Wind kts    29  33  32  24  24  24  14  18  19  27  25  27  17  15   9  10   4   8  10  14  11 

GFS MOS Forecast for Whidbey Naval Air Station KNUW GFS Model run on 11/15/2009 at 1800UTC (-8 10AM PST) Forecast Hour PST 4PM 7PM 10P|1AM 4AM 7AM 10A 1PM 4PM 7PM 10P|1AM 4AM 7AM 10A 1PM 4PM 7PM 10P|4AM 10A Wind Direction deg 140 140 140 140 140 130 150 150 140 120 130 140 140 160 150 170 190 150 130 130 130 Forecast Wind kts 29 28 23 25 27 20 20 21 16 14 25 25 35 29 25 20 15 13 12 14 16
Smith Island: Forecast Wind Speed (knots) and direction (azimuth) (N48.32 W122.84)
NAM MOS Forecast for Smith Island SISW1 NAM Model run on   11/16/2009  at 0000UTC (-8 4PM PST)                      
Forecast Hour PST   10P|1AM 4AM 7AM 10A 1PM 4PM 7PM 10P|1AM 4AM 7AM 10A 1PM 4PM 7PM 10P|1AM 4AM 7AM 10A 
Wind Direction dg   150 140 150 150 160 160 140 130 150 160 170 180 180 180 220 260 240 140 140 150 150 
Forecast Wind kts    31  36  40  28  31  29  18  13  27  36  29  32  23  22  18  11  12  12  15  23  22 
Forecast Wind kts10  29  34  38  26  29  27  17  12  26  34  27  31  22  20  17  10  12  11  14  22  21 
 
 GFS MOS Forecast for Smith Island SISW1  GFS Model run on   11/15/2009  at 1800UTC (-8 10AM PST)                      
Forecast Hour PST   4PM 7PM 10P|1AM 4AM 7AM 10A 1PM 4PM 7PM 10P|1AM 4AM 7AM 10A 1PM 4PM 7PM 10P|1AM 4AM 
Wind Direction dg   140 140 140 150 150 140 150 150 160 130 130 150 140 160 160 190 200 160 140 140 130 
Forecast Wind kts    26  29  30  39  38  24  26  26  18  21  38  43  45  35  35  25  19  15  16  19  20 
Forecast Wind kts10  24  27  29  37  36  23  25  25  17  20  35  41  42  33  33  24  18  14  15  18  19 
MOS forecasts last acquired Sunday, Nov 15, 2009 at 7:42PM PST

Below is the 24 hour LAMP Forecast — winds only. Click here for complete LAMP forecast for KNUW last accessed Nov 15 at 7:35PM PST
KNUW WHIDBEY IS.NAS GFS LAMP GUIDANCE 11/16/2009 7:00 PM PST Model Run
Hour 8PM 9PM 10PM 11PM 12AM 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10AM 11AM 12PM 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM
WDR
WSP33333330302828292928272423242424252523221918171821

RASP Forecast winds for Ft Ebey at 48.220 -122.76 as calculated for 5 different domains

from TJ's DrJack RASP forecasts All speeds are in knots.
The ForecastPd tells how many hours ahead the forecast was for when it was made.
Blipspot for 16 Nov 2009 -- Ebey (PNW region) 4km grid
VALID.TIME 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 VALID.TIME
ForecastPd 16.0h 17.0h 18.0h 19.0h 20.0h 21.0h 22.0h 23.0h 24.0h 25.0h 26.0h 27.0h --h ForecastPd
Sfc_W_Dir 162 161 158 155 156 165 166 164 152 154 138 132 - Sfc_W_Dir
Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt 35 36 36 34 32 29 24 21 19 20 15 13 - Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt
Blipspot for -- Ebey (BLAN region) 4km grid
VALID.TIME 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 VALID.TIME
ForecastPd --h --h --h --h --h --h --h --h --h --h --h --h --h ForecastPd
Sfc_W_Dir - - - - - - - - - - - - - Sfc_W_Dir
Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt - - - - - - - - - - - - - Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt
Blipspot for 15 Nov 2009 -- Ebey (EBEY region) 4km grid
VALID.TIME 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 VALID.TIME
ForecastPd 4.0h 5.0h 6.0h 7.0h 8.0h 9.0h 10.0h 11.0h 12.0h 13.0h 14.0h 15.0h --h ForecastPd
Sfc_W_Dir 152 152 151 151 151 150 150 151 150 152 153 151 - Sfc_W_Dir
Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt 30 30 29 29 29 29 29 29 28 28 28 28 - Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt
Blipspot for 15 Nov 2009 -- Ebey (EBEY region) 1.3km grid
VALID.TIME 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 VALID.TIME
ForecastPd 4.0h 5.0h 6.0h 7.0h 8.0h 9.0h 10.0h 11.0h 12.0h 13.0h 14.0h 15.0h --h ForecastPd
Sfc_W_Dir 151 151 148 147 146 146 144 144 146 147 150 152 - Sfc_W_Dir
Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt 32 33 32 33 33 32 32 31 30 29 29 31 - Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt
Blipspot for 15 Nov 2009 -- Ebey (SKAG region) 4km grid
VALID.TIME 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 VALID.TIME
ForecastPd --h --h --h --h --h --h --h --h --h --h --h --h --h ForecastPd
Sfc_W_Dir 148 150 151 150 150 147 144 145 149 - - - - Sfc_W_Dir
Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt 21 21 22 22 22 21 21 21 20 - - - - Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt

If you follow these forecasts, please let me know which one seems to be the more reliable/accurate. They all start from the same raw data, but because they use different boundaries they end up with different results. TJ Hours don't always match for GFS and ETA because GFS runs every 6 hours and eta every 12hours
ETA projections are for 6 through 84 hours in advance, from the initial model times of 0000, and 1200 UTC
GFS projections are for 6 through 84 hours in advance, from the initial model times of 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800.
Only 60 hour forecasts are reported here. LAMP forecast is updated every three hours.


StationTime Wind SpeedWind DirectionGusting to
Bluff 1mi N. of Ft. Ebey 7:45 PM 26.0 MPH SE46.0 MPH
Smith Island 7:00 PM 44mph / 20m/s S 51mph / 23m/s
Whidbey NAS 6:56 PM 33mph / 15m/s SE 46mph / 21m/s
Keystone Ferry 7:15 PM 39mph / 17m/s SE
Race Rocks Bouy 7:00 PM 10mph / 5m/s N

Metar from KNUW Whidbey Naval Air Station

Conditions at: KNUW (WHIDBEY IS. NAS, WA, US) observed 6:56 PM PST Temperature: 10.0°C (50°F) Dewpoint: 6.1°C (43°F) [RH = 77%] Pressure (altimeter): 29.85 inches Hg (2:10 AM PST.9 mb)
[Sea-level pressure: 1011.2 mb] Winds: from the SSE (150 degrees) at 33 MPH (29 knots; 15.1 m/s)
gusting to 46 MPH (40 knots; 20.8 m/s) Visibility: 10 or more miles (16+ km) Ceiling: 1,800 feet AGL Clouds: few clouds at 1,000 feet AGL
broken clouds at 1,800 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 8,000 feet AGL Weather:
SOME DATA ABOVE MAY BE INACCURATE!!!
"$" is an indication the sensor requires maintenance


Note from El Diablo: "Keystone ferry, NAS Whidbey and Race Rocks data are virtually superfluous to the topic of whether Fort Ebey is, or will be, soarable. These are my own observations from twelve years and well over a thousand hours soaring there."
Jim Martyn (El Diablo)   2 miles north of Fort Ebey, along the bluff

MM5 forecasts (times on UW generated MM5 forecast graphics are always UTC
Note that both Ft. Ebey and Smith Island coordinates generate the same meteogram and sounding from the MM5. The one below is for KNUW, which is different.
That means that according to MM5, the forecast for Ft. Ebey is the SAME as the forecast for Smith Island. Experience has shown that the winds an the Fort can be quite different from Smith Island, so ask a long time Whidbey person for interpretation of the data. Remember that "Whidbey is On" may mean anything from steady 8 mph from SW to gusty 25+mph from the WNW, depending on who is saying it.

Right click on the image and choose "view or show image" to see the whole meteogram.
For soundings and metograms from other domains, useTJ's Weather Widget


NWS Meteogram — Digital Forecast for the next 48 hours:
WRF based meteogram from NWS for Whidbey Island near Ft Ebey
Current winds from the ferry
Anacortes to SanJuan Island
ferry winds

RASP FORECAST SURFACE MAPS Animated loop

| 8AM | 9AM | 10AM | 11AM | noon | 1PM | 2PM | 3PM | 4PM | 5PM | 6PM | 7PM | 8PM
(when available)
Windcasts for the next few hours:
1st 2nd 3rd
4th 5th 5th
From http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/forecasts/graphical/sectors/sew.php#tabs
Western Washington Forecast graphics for surface level pressure, temperature, and 10M winds SLP
    6hr     
11 o'clock
     9hr     
2 o'clock
    12hr     
5 o'clock
    15hr     
8 o'clock
    18hr     
11 o'clock
    21hr     
2 o'clock
    24hr     
5 o'clock
   27hr     
8 o'clock
Whether it is AM or PM depends on when the most recent run was completed.
MM5 Time Heights for Whidbey NAS KNUW 4km domain (Forecast soundings over time.)
MM5 Time Heights for Friday Harbor 4km domain (Forecast soundings over time.)
MM5 Time Heights for Victoria BC 4km domain (Forecast soundings over time.)
MM5 Time Heights for Vancouver BC CYVR 4km domain (Forecast soundings over time.)

Fort Ebey 48.23N -122.73W elev. 95ft   Graphical 48hrs (click here or scroll down)
USA Forecast for Straight of Juan de Fuca and Admiralty Inlet.
Canadian Forecast for the East end of Straight of Juan de Fuca
All BC Marine Forecasts including Juan de Fuca and Haro Strait
48 hour Digital forecasts for Fort Ebey:      On the water  ||     On land
  • Most recent METARs
    Oak Harbor weather camera for sky conditions.
    Port Townsend weather camera -- Can be pointed at the Ft. Ebey Baker preset includes most.
    Quick pictures of Wind on Ferry routes
    Get Ferry Wind picture between Anacortes and San Juan Islands
    Get Ferry Wind picture between Port Townsend Keystone Whidbey Island
    The official version of ferry winds

    View Larger Map
    Direct Links to Current Observations
    Current and recent Smith Island Observations 48.32 N 122.84 W National Data Bouy network
    MesoWest
    Table of mesowest stations within 50 miles of Ft. Ebey
    Current Whidbey NAS observations 48.22°N, 122.76°W
    Oak Harbor Air Park 48.2500°N, 122.6667°W
    Near Joeseph Whidbey State Park 48.3067°N, 122.6772°W
    Bouy 46088 In water WSW of Ft. Ebey LAT: 48.3 LON -123.2
    Race Rocks Bouy Even further West.
    Port Townsend
    Victoria Automatic station just East of Victoria
    Langley Wa, South Whidbey Island

    Launch code graphical presentation of MOS GFS/AVN and ETA data


    Pretty Launch Code Graphical version of MOS ETA guidance for KNUW
    Pretty Launch Code Graphical version of MOS GFS/AVN guidance for KNUW

    Pretty Launch Code Graphical version of MOS GFS/AVN guidance for SISW1 Smith Island --- !!! They started doing it!! Thanks Mark!
    Near Keystone Ferry Weather site.   Lat:48.177°   Lon:-122.642°   Elevation: 120 ft
    West Oceanfront Whidbey, Coupeville, WA
    Partridge Point, Coupeville, WA (may be dead)
    Crockett Lake, Coupeville, WA
    Direct Links to MOS guidance forecasts:
    For full explanations of the MOS ETA and the GFS MOS MAV forecasts.
    http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/products.shtml for all MOS text forecasts.
    Full Smith Island ETA forecast
    Full Smith Island GFS (AVN/MAV) forecast
    Full ETA forecast MOS Whidbey NAS
    Full GFS (AVN/MAV) forecast MOS Whidbey NAS
    Full NGM Nested Grid Model MOS guidance Whidbey NAS
    Localized Aviation MOS Program (Not available for Smith Island)
    Full GFS LAMP for Whidbey NAS -- same stuff, but hourly forecasts and updated every 3 hours instead of 6 or 12...
    Meteogram of above from LAMP (Requires Java)
    All Nested Grid model forecasts were discontinued Jan 18 2008
    List of all meso stations within 30 miles of Smith island
    Marine forecast for the water out in front of the Fort.
    Conversion factors Enter known speed on
    right. Click convert.
    10 mph → 8.7knots →16 kph → 4.5 mps
    10knots → 11.5 mph → 18.5 kph → 5.14 mps
    10 kph → 6.2 mph → 5.4knots → 2.78 mps
    1 Meters/second (mps) → 197 feet/minute (fpm)
    10 Meters/second (mps) → 36kph → 22.8mph





    miles (mph)
    knots (kt)
    kilometers (km/h)
    meters/sec (m/s)
    (ft/sec) (ft/min)
    Beaufort
      

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    Forecasts
    NWS Forecast Whidbey Island
    Pre-set digital forecasts for Flying Sites
    New experimental graphical forecast tool
    KING 5 TV's most recent video forecast

    To Get Digital Forecasts or Topo Maps,       TJ's Full Weather Widget
    Enter an arbitrary decimal lattitude and longitude (within the continental US for forecast and topo).
    New Latitude New Longitude

    Decoding the MOS forecasts:

  • Aviation (AVN) http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/info/decodemav.php
  • and Environmental ETA (NGM) http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/info/decodemet.php
    Cloud (CLD) Categories
     ABBREV  MAV/ETA/NGM octa=1/8 of sky AVN/GFS/MET
    CL clear 0/10 of opaque clouds
    SC scattered > 0 to 4 octas 1/10 to 5/10 of opaque clouds
    BK broken > 4 to < 8 octas 6/10 to 9/10 of opaque clouds
    OV overcast 10/10 of opaque clouds
    or totally obscured
    XX MISSING Missing
    MAV Ceiling Height Categories
    1 < 200 feet
    2 200 - 400 feet
    3 500 - 900 feet
    4 1000 - 1900 feet
    5 2000 - 3000 feet
    6 3100 - 6500 feet
    7 6600 - 12,000 feet
    8 > 12,000 feet or unlimited ceiling
    MAV Visibility (VIS) Categories
    1 1/2 mile or less
    2 more than 1/2 - or less than 1 mile
    3 1 mile - less than 2
    4 2 - less than 3 miles
    5 3 - 5 miles
    6 6 miles
    7 Vis is > 6 miles
    QPF Liquid QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS:
    QPF CATEGORIES MAV and MET
    0 no precipitation
    1 0.01 to 0.09 inches
    2 0.10 to 0.24 inches
    3 0.25 to 0.49 inches
    4 0.50 to 0.99 inches
    5 1.00 to 1.99 inches
    6 2.00 inches or greater