The Indian J&K consists of three regions: the Kashmir Valley, Jammu and Ladakh. According to the 1981 census, Kashmir Valley has 96% Muslims, while Jammu has 66% Hindus and Ladakh has a 51% Buddhist majority. A region-wise analysis of the same MORI poll by BBC News (released on 31 May) shows that only 9% of the people in the Kashmir Valley, where the discontent and insurgency is concentrated, want to be with India while 13% want to join Pakistan[2]. The remaining 78% showed no enthusiasm for being part of either country. Perhaps they would have preferred a third choice which was not being offered, namely independence.

What brings the overall total to 61% is the fact that nearly all of the people in Jammu and Ladakh regions preferred Indian citizenship. However, as is well known, the insurgency that has been going on since 1989 is concentrated in the Kashmir Valley. According to long-time Kashmir observers like Balraj Puri (see for example his book "Kashmir: Towards Insurgency"), most inhabitants of Jammu and Ladakh have been happy with Indian rule[3], which explains the pro-India results. Quoting the overall percentage of 61% in support of the theory that all would be well in Kashmir but for Pakistan’s cross-border terrorism, belies the internal trauma in the Kashmir Valley, which bleeds as we speak.

The poll also had some drawbacks. Of the 850 people interviewed (out of an estimated population of 7.5 million), only 360 (42.35%) were from the Valley. However, according to the 1981 census, Valley constitutes 52% of the total population of J& K. If an additional 170 people in the Valley were included in the poll to reflect the Valley’s 52% representation, this would bring down the percentage of pro-India results for the whole of J&K from 61% to 52%. Further, the areas polled in Jammu and Ladakh were in and around the Jammu City and Leh; Muslim majority regions of Jammu such as Poonch, Rajouri, Doda and the Muslim majority region of Ladakh such as Kargil were not included .

The MORI poll, despite its inadequacies, does indicate the need for regional solutions to the long-standing Kashmir dispute. Though the 1948 and 1949 UNCIP resolutions dictated unitary plebiscite for the whole of J&K, it is well known that the various regions in J&K have evolved independently and hence the unitary plebiscite may be outdated. Given the fact that the conflict is concentrated in the Kashmir Valley (whose area is less than 6200 sq. miles) and the fact that most of Jammu and Ladakh have been historically pro-India, various regional solutions like regional plebiscite, fully-restored autonomy and independence need to be considered in unconditional dialogues between India, Pakistan and the Kashmiris. Part of the reason why all the previous talks have failed is this: India and Pakistan have refused to accept Kashmiris as a legitimate third party in the dispute and offer unconditional dialogues with the independence option.

The insurgency in the Valley arose as a result of genuine grievances among the people due to the denial of the promised plebiscite, erosion of autonomy promised under Article 370, consistently rigged elections since 1951 and unemployment; this insurgency started off as a popular one with hundreds of thousands of Kashmiris marching on the streets of Srinagar between January and May 1990. Following brutal repression by India, this popular insurgency turned massively militant with Pakistan providing arms and training to both indigenous and foreign militants in Kashmir [4], thus adding fuel to the smouldering fire in the Valley [Human Rights Watch, Arms Pipeline, 1994].

Grave human right violations by the Indian forces, such as arbitrary arrests, torture, rape and extrajudicial killings have been extensively documented by human rights organizations [5]. Militants also engage in human right violations and killings of innocent civilians. Pakistan reportedly favours the pro-Pakistan militant group Hizbul Mujahedin and has played a role in decimating the JKLF, an indigenous and secular pro-independence group. Hence, as demonstrated by the low 9% and 13% pro-india and pro-pakistan figures respectively in the MORI poll, Kashmiris are alienated from both countries given the history of misrule and repression by India and violence by pro-Pakistan militants. Caught in the crossfire between militants and Indian security forces, Kashmir continues to bleed.

If the sorry plight of the Kashmiris were not reason enough, the threat of a devastating nuclear war between India and Pakistan over this region offers an additional reason to start the process of solving the dispute through diplomatic and political means. It has been reported that Pakistan did indeed prepare for nuclear strikes during Kargil war in 1999 and it took US President Bill Clinton’s intervention to dissuade Pakistan from striking [6]. But one cannot count on such positive intervention everytime. It is imperative that India and Pakistan pull back their dangerous military buildup, put an end to all violence in Kashmir including Pakistan sponsored cross-border terrorism and Indian State terrorism and engage in unconditional dialogues to resolve the Kashmir dispute, including Kashmiris in the process.