Understanding Kashmir
A chronology of the conflict
June 2002: Kashmir is bleeding, as we speak. The Kashmir conflict continues to be unresolved after more than five decades, fuelling the conventional and nuclear arms race between India and Pakistan and bleeding their economy. Both countries have gone to war on three occasions over Kashmir and the possibility of war between the two countries has become frightening given their nuclear weapon capability.

Kashmir continues to be the bone of contention between India and Pakistan. Each side insists it is right and the other is wrong. India insists that the accession of Kashmir to India is final and complete and hence Kashmir is an integral part of India and that all would be well in Kashmir, but for Pakistan's cross-border terrorism. Pakistan on the other hand, insists that Kashmir is a disputed territory and that it is merely providing moral and diplomatic support for an indigenous freedom struggle in Kashmir. A large number of Kashmiris do not believe that the 1947 accession is final; they insist that Kashmir is a disputed territory and demand self-determination. Indian public is bombarded with the official version of rhetoric on Kashmir, as Pakistanis are bombarded likewise with their version.

How do we engage with and understand this complex issue which continues to exact increasing death toll of civilians, as each day passes? All sides cannot be right at once in their claims of absolute moral rectitude, the truth probably lies somewhere in between.

b1 Kashmir Chronology in a Nutshell
  • 1846-1947: Jammu and Kashmir(J&K) State is created under the Treaty of Amritsar between the East India company and Raja Gulab Singh of Jammu who buys Kashmir Valley from the East India Company for Rs.75,00,000 and adds it to Jammu and Ladakh already under his rule. Kashmir Valley is a Muslim majority region speaking the Kashmiri language and a distinct culture called 'kashmiriyat'. The people of Kashmir rise against the repressive Maharaja Hari Singh in 1931 and again in 1946 led by Sheikh Abdullah. In 1947, an internal revolt begins in the Poonch region against oppressive taxation by the Maharaja and the rebels form an Azad Kashmir Government in October.

    On 15 August 1947, the Indian subcontinent becomes independent. Rulers of Princely States are encouraged to accede their States to either Dominion - India or Pakistan, taking into account factors such as geographical contiguity and the wishes of their people. The Maharaja of Kashmir delays his decision in an effort to remain independent. Many Kashmiris are fearful of joining India given the massacre of Muslims elsewhere in India.

  • 1947-1949: The Maharaja of the State of Jammu and Kashmir signs the Instrument of Accession (IOA) on 26 October, acceding the 75% majority Muslim region to the Indian Union, following invasion by the tribesmen from Pakistan, according to the 1948 Indian White Paper; India accepts the accession, regarding it provisional until such time as the will of the people can be ascertained by a plebiscite, since Kashmir was recognized as a disputed territory.The Indian army enters the state on 27 October to repel the invaders. Sheikh Abdullah endorses the accession as ad-hoc which would be ultimately decided by a plebiscite and is appointed head of the emergency administration.

    Pakistan disputes that the accession is illegal and sends regular forces to Kashmir and the first war over Kashmir breaks out.On 1 January 1949, a ceasefire between Indian and Pakistani forces leaves Pakistan in control of part of Kashmir including what Pakistan calls "Azad" Kashmir and Northern territories while India terms the territory as POK.

    India takes the Kashmir problem to the United Nations (UN) Security Council on 1 January 1948. On 5 January 1949, UNCIP (United Nations Commission for India and Pakistan) resolution states that the question of the accession of the State of Jammu and Kashmir to India or Pakistan will be decided through a free and impartial plebiscite. However, both countries fail to arrive at a Truce agreement which is a prerequisite for a plebiscite, due to differences in interpretation of the procedure for and extent of demilitarisation. Subsequently, a plebiscite is never held.

  • 1949: On 17 October, the Indian Constituent Assembly adopts Article 370 of the Constitution, ensuring a special status and internal autonomy for Jammu and Kashmir, which is confirmed under the 1952 Delhi Agreement; However, the autonomy would get eroded over the years.

  • 1951: First post-independence elections. The UN passes a resolution to the effect that such elections do not substitute a plebiscite. There are widespread charges of election rigging which continue to plague all the subsequent elections.
  • 1965: Pakistan takes advantage of the discontent in the Kashmir Valley which is partly due to erosion of autonomy and sends in a few thousand armed Pakistani infiltrators across the cease-fire line in August; A full Indo-Pakistani war breaks out which ends in a ceasefire on 23 September. Pakistan supported guerrilla groups in Kashmir increase their activities after the ceasefire.
  • 1979: The USSR invades Afghanistan. The US and Pakistan are involved in training, recruiting, arming, and unleashing the Mujahedin on Afghanistan. The mujahedin so recruited would take on their own agenda of establishing Islamic rule in Kashmir from the late 1980's.

  • 1987-1989: The 1987 elections are believed to be rigged; The insurgency in the Valley increases in momentum from this point on, given the consistent failure of democracy and limited employment opportunities; Many of the candidates and election aides become militants. In 1988, protests begin in the Valley along with anti-India demonstrations, followed by police firing and curfew. Militancy increases in 1989.

    End of Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in 1989 releases a great deal of militant energy and weapons to Kashmir. Pakistan provides arms and training to both indigenous and foreign militants in Kashmir, thus adding fuel to the smouldering fire of discontent in the valley. India maintains that the insurgency itself was started by Pakistan's 'Operation Topac' established in 1988, which is later shown to be false and acknowledged as a hypothetical war game written by Indian specialists.

  • 1990: Between January and May, hundreds of thousands of unarmed kashmiris take to the streets demanding plebiscite and it becomes an insurgency of the entire population. Indian forces resort to brutal repression leading to the alienation of the masses; Thousands of desperate Kashmiri youth cross-over to Pakistan for training and procurement of arms. Many indigenous and foreign militant organizations proliferate, including renegade militants used by the Indian forces. Following killings by the militants, the entire Kashmiri Pandit community flees the Valley.

  • In May 1999, the Indian Army patrols detect intruders from Pakistan on Kargil ridges in Kashmir. India fights to regain lost territory. War between the two countries becomes more frightening given the nuclear weaponry possessed by both countries and Kashmir remains the underlying flashpoint.

    The Indian state considers the accession of Kashmir final and considers it as an integral part of India, is resistant to talks of plebiscite; Pakistan considers Kashmir as a disputed territory and has insisted on implementation of a plebiscite as per UN resolutions; The evolving consensus opinion however is that UN resolutions are out-dated, since the dispute has evolved into tripartite; that other solutions like regional autonomy and independence should be considered given that various regions in Kashmir have evolved independently since 1947 and that the conflict is restricted to the Kashmir Valley.

    Any claim that all would be well in Kashmir but for Pakistan's cross-border terrorism is simplistic and hides the internal trauma in the Valley. Kashmiris are alienated from both countries given brutal repression by India and violence by pro-Pakistan militants; Kashmiri activists resent the gradual erosion of their autonomy promised under Article 370 and the fact that the promised self-determination has been denied so far and hence insist on being included in the talks without preconditions, which both India and Pakistan resist; The stalemate continues.

    In the meantime, grave human right violations by the Indian security forces continue to be reported. Violence and human right violations by militants continue. Pakistan continues to control Azad Kashmir and Northern Territories in a repressive manner. Since 1990, more than 40,000 people have been killed in Kashmir, over half of them are civilians. Caught in the crossfire between militants and Indian security forces, Kashmir continues to bleed.
    • Chronology of Major Events

    The Indian state considers the accession of Kashmir final and considers it as an integral part of India and continues to deny that there exists a genuine dispute; She is resistant to talks of plebiscite and Vajpayee has recently stated that India will not accept LOC as the international border and that the issue of POK will top the agenda. It should be noted that India's present claim of completed accession contradicts with 1948 White Paper which recognized Kashmir as a disputed territory and the accession as provisional till plebiscite and also that Kashmiri activists do not consider the elections (which themselves have a history of having been rigged) as a substitute for a plebiscite. Pakistan considers Kashmir as a disputed territory and has insisted on implementation of a plebiscite as per UN resolutions.
    The Hindu, We will never compromise on LoC: PM, Feb 4 2002.

    The evolving consensus opinion however is that UN resolutions are out-dated, since the dispute has evolved into tripartite; that other solutions like regional autonomy and independence should be considered given that various regions in Kashmir have evolved independently since 1947 and that the conflict is restricted to the Kashmir Valley whose area is less than 16% of the total area of Indian controlled J&K. It is noteworthy that majority people of Jammu and Ladakh want to remain with India.

    Any claim that all would be well in Kashmir but for Pakistan's cross-border terrorism is simplistic and hides the internal trauma in the Valley. Kashmiris are alienated from both countries given brutal repression by India and violence by pro-Pakistan militants; In a recent poll by Mori, only 9% and 13% of people of Kashmir Valley have preferred to join India and Pakistan respectively. Kashmiri activists resent the gradual erosion of their autonomy promised under Article 370 and the fact that the promised self-determination** has been denied so far and hence insist on being included in the talks without preconditions, which both India and Pakistan resist; The stalemate continues.
    BBC News, Kashmiris speak out for peace, 31 May 2002

    The Hurriyat conference(APHC) is an umbrella organization of over 20 political, social and religious groups founded in 1993, which is the political face of the Kashmiri separatist movement with good support in the Valley, as attested by the compliance of the Valley in response to APHC's calls for strikes and protests; The Hurriyat is committed to self-determination for Kashmiris and fighting Indian rule by peaceful means and has thus far refused to participate in Jammu & Kashmir's elections, although it is deeply divided in whether the ultimate objective is independence or accession to Pakistan. Yasin Malik (Chairman of the J&K Liberation Front and a pro-independence Hurriyat leader) says in an interview in 2000 that India has offered talks with Kashmiris subject to condition that Kashmir is a part of India, which he has refused. The hardliners insist that talks with India must include Pakistan, an option India completely rejects. The Hurriyat claims to represent the whole State, however it has refused to indicate the future status of various regions and communities within the proposed state; The Hurriyat does not have good support outside the Kashmir Valley and parts of Azad Kashmir and hence needs to accomodate regional solutions. Abdul Ghani Lone, the most popular leader among the Hurriyat moderates, and well known for his rejection of the gun, was assassinated in May 2002. This immediately quashed the already difficult possibilities of diplomatic progress between the Indian state and the Hurriyat before the upcoming 2002 Kashmir elections.
    Victoria Schofield, Analysis: Kashmir separatists at crossroads
    BBC News, Kashmir strike shuts down State, 27 March 2002
    Balraj Ruri, Resolving the Kashmir Issue

    Jawaharlal Nehru: 1952
    "We have fought the good fight about Kashmir on the field of battle... (and) ...in many a chancellery of the world and in the United Nations, but, above all, we have fought this fight in the hearts and minds of men and women of that State of Jammu and Kashmir. Because, ultimately - I say this with all deference to this Parliament - the decision will be made in the hearts and minds of the men and women of Kashmir;neither in this Parliament, nor in the United Nations nor by anybody else," Jawaharlal Nehru in the Lok Sabha on August 7, 1952.

    - Selected works of Jawaharlal Nehru, vol. 19 pp. 295-6.

    While Pakistan's claim that it is only providing moral and diplomatic support for an indigenous freedom struggle in Kashmir Valley, similar to India's support for the freedom struggle in East Pakistan in 1971, may be true to some extent, it is equally true that Pakistan is arming and training foreign militants besides indigenous militants. The JKLF admitted in a press release in 1990 that ISI had financed the operations of the JKLF and the Hizb. In November 1995, a BBC documentary programme showed evidence of camps in Azad Kashmir and Pakistan, supported by the Jamaat-i-Islami (political wing of the Hizb), where fighters were trained and openly professed their intention of fighting in Kashmir. While many of India's accusations of Pakistan sponsored cross-border terrorism may be true, there have also been instances when such accusations have proved false; For instance, K. Subrahmanyam, one of India's top defence specialists maintained that 'Operation Topac' was established in Pakistan in April 1988 in order to nurture an indigenous insurgency, which was countered by Pakistan that it was invented by the Indian RAW, as a hypothetical exercise, a fact which Subrahmanyam later acknowledged. Curiously, this hypothetical Operation Topac continues to be quoted by Indian officials including the Indian Embassy. According to the Director-General of the Indian Border Security Force (BSF), E.N. Rammohan, India is up against not only the ISI's financing of, but also the motivation of the cross-border infiltrators.     In the meantime, grave human right violations by the Indian security forces, such as arbitrary arrests, torture, rape and extrajudicial killings, continue to be reported, being extensively documented by human rights organizations. Violence and human right violations by militants continue. Pakistan continues to control Azad Kashmir and Northern Territories in a repressive manner. As of June 1999, an estimated 400,000 army troops and other federal security forces were deployed in the valley, including those positioned along the Line of Control. Since 1990, over 40,000 people are estimated to have been killed in Kashmir , about half of them are civilians; According to official handouts (which tend to be conservative in the number of Muslim civilians killed by the security forces and mostly exclude thousands of custodial killings), 2477 civilians had been killed by Indian security forces, 6673 civilians and 1593 security personnel had been killed by the militants, amounting to a total of 19,866 killings as of 1998, including 982 Hindus and Sikhs killed as of 1999. An estimated 36,000 Hindu families and 20,000 Muslim families (as of 1993) have fled the Valley and many of them still languish in the refugee camps in Jammu and Azad Kashmir, being displayed by India and Pakistan respectively for propaganda. Caught in the crossfire between militants and Indian security forces, Kashmir continues to bleed. Akhila Raman
    June 2002

    Notes:
    1. Akhila Raman is a researcher on the Kashmir conflict. This page was reviewed by Pervez Hoodbhoy and Angana Chatterji. Pervez Hoodbhoy is a professor of physics at Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad. Angana P. Chatterji is Professor of Social and Cultural Anthropology at California Institute of Integral Studies, San Francisco.

    2. *Jammu and Kashmir is also referred to as Kashmir in short. It consists of the Kashmir Valley (15,948 sq.kms= 6158 sq. mile), Jammu (26,293 sq.kms) and Ladakh(59,146 sq.kms) under Indian control; "Azad" Kashmir (13,297 sq.kms) and Northern Territories (64,817 sq.kms) under Pakistani control; Aksai Chin, Demochok(37,555 sq.kms) and Shaksgam(5,180 sq.kms) under Chinese control, at present. In the post-1949 ceasefire context, J&K(or Kashmir) is used to refer to the Indian held territory, unless specified otherwise. According to 1981 census, the Kashmir Valley has a population of 3.1 million with 95% Muslim majority; Jammu and Ladakh are predominantly Hindu and Buddhist respectively; the total population of Indian and Pakistan controlled J&K is 6 million (with 64% Muslim majority) and 2.55 million (with 100% Muslim majority) respectively. The term 'Kashmiris' has been used to denote the people of Kashmir or Kashmir Valley depending on the context.
      Map of Jammu and Kashmir, Courtesy: Global Perspectives.
      Jammu-Kashmir.com, Facts and Figures
      1981 Census of J&K
    3. **Self-determination refers to the clause 'the will of the people shall be ascertained regarding the question of accession' in 1948 Indian White Paper and the UN resolutions.