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September 1, 2005

An Early Winner

Of all the randomly generated spam subject lines ("A stand by simpleton mucous", "Augusta is taking the plane", "binge, You didn't answer") that roll into my In box, the Zen Spam of the Year Award goes to "galaxy, Give me a break".



September 2, 2005

The Girl in a Swing

In a swing


Oh Yeah

I think I fixed that Photoshop color problem...



September 4, 2005

Great American

I came to the realization, by the end of this horrible past week, that the elusive Great American Novel has been writing itself before our very eyes.

The final chapter began while hurricane Katrina was approaching the Gulf Coast, and the last page was scribbled just this past Friday.

The Great American Novel depicts the dynasty begun by Prescott Bush, scion of a political family. He passes the political torch through his son to his grandson, each attaining greater political power than the last, each learning from the mistakes of the last. It is about this family, and about the people that choose them to lead. Like the Godfather films, it describes an arc in which power increases, while purpose evaporates.

The interesting thing about great literature is that you meet the characters and observe the forces in play very early on, and then watch the drama play out with a sense of inevitability. The characters can rarely escape their destiny because they can't escape themselves. So you know roughly where it's going after a while, but you want to keep reading because you're not quite sure what specific dimensions the tragedy will inhabit when it blooms at the end.

The Great American Novel doesn't discuss the defunding and repurposing of FEMA, the deployment of the National Guard to a foreign country, or the distance between New Orleans and sea level. That's wonkish stuff, not generally considered a literary asset. And besides, those details don't matter. They are specifics where none are needed; the final outcome is visible in the character of the protagonists early on. By the middle of the tale, in November of 1995, the dominoes have all been set up. All that's left is to watch them fall.

The last chapter of the Great American Novel is unique. The heroes of the Bush dynasty, after being the primary focus of the book, all but disappear. The focus shifts to the common man, fighting the rising waters, grabbing what they can, searching for higher ground. They wait for help, and gradually realize it isn't coming. They're on their own.

The final page of the Great American Novel brings the erstwhile Average Joe president face-to-face with the common man on the streets of Mississippi. He greets a pair of survivors, a woman and her daughter. The mother is nearly hysterical as she describes losing her boyfriend. The president hugs them, encourages them to leave and go to a shelter. When the woman persists, the president hugs her again. As she drifts away from the scene, the president has some parting advice:

"All right. Hang in there."

There it is folks, the Great American Novel, authored by you, and by me.



September 6, 2005

No, the Circle Won't be Unbroken, Part I

There's been a lot of discussion along the lines of "Should we rebuild New Orleans?". It's a fair question, from the standpoint of risk management. Where is our money best spent?

Certainly not in tornado alley -- we shouldn't rebuild there. Nor in Hawaii; the next tsunami could destroy it utterly.

The question gets more complicated in San Francisco and L.A. Landfill is the obvious weak point for earthquakes. Anything on landfill should not be rebuilt. But wait a second; anything that collapses in an earthquake is by definition a bad risk, so nothing that collapses should be rebuilt.

Don't rebuild it

Let's move on to terrorism. Experts are pretty certain that the probability of a nuclear or biological attack on certain American cities approaches 1:1 over the next 40 to 50 years. Where will they strike? New York and Washington DC are likely targets. As permanently tempting bull's-eyes for terrorism, they should stop being expanded, should not be rebuilt, and people should be actively persuaded to leave.

But terrorists are a creative bunch. They could target dams, nuclear power plants, chemical factories. This puts communities in the vicinity at considerable risk. Any structures downstream from a dam, or near a nuclear or chemical site should be de-insured immediately, to avoid the temptation of rebuilding should they come to ruin. This will pose a commute hardship on the workers, but wise risk management is a priority.

Then there's drought. The Dust Bowl killed approximately 15,000 people. The 1988 drought resulted in approximately $60 billion in damages. Cities, and especially farms in the vicinity of drought areas are clearly a bad risk -- no subsidies for you.

Just a stone's throw away, disaster-wise, let's consider heat waves. The 2003 Paris heat wave killed 15,000 people. (What, you didn't know about this? You didn't join your fellow Americans lighting a candle for the French?). What is it about cities that lures heat waves? Time to abandon the cities.

Finally let's circle back to floods. Holland has clearly got to go. One quarter of their land mass is below sea level. This is obviously the source of their inability to recover from the floods of 1953, 1993, and 1995. Wait a minute... that can't be right...


September 9, 2005

No, the Circle Won't be Unbroken (intermission)

Of course, there are other, better argued points of view.


September 11, 2005

No, the Circle Won't be Unbroken, Part 2

Personally, I think the smart money is buying New Orleans property right about now. I think it will be rebuilt, and in fact, reborn.

My favorite proposal so far has been a New New Deal, focused on New Orleans. Billions of dollars in aid focused on giving the people who lived there a chance to rebuild their homes, earn a decent wage doing it, and learning some bankable skills at the same time. But no. Predictably enough, Halliburton gets the first big spoonful of lard, and the $51B aid bill specifically noted that earmarked funds aren't subject to minimum wage laws.

Ultimately though, enough of N.O. is intact that I think the rest of it is sure to be rebuilt, even if it takes a very long time. The levees will be rebuilt and fortified, large sections of old neighborhood will be razed to make way for new developments (Thanks Kelo vs. New London! Yeehaw! Lord knows, the city won't have to pay much to compensate for those properties.)

But I doubt that New Orleans will ever be the same. People have scattered to Baton Rouge, Houston, Milwaukee, Tucson, Des Moines. This was less an evacuation than a diaspora, and the amount of time it'll take to put New Orleans back in order is going to make a lot of the old populace settle in and not go back, even if they can afford it.

A city's character derives from it's history -- the family connections, the overlapping cultures and the tensions between them, a community's sense of knowing what to treasure and keep intact. But history can't be rushed. If the city tries to retain it's romantic appeal while simultaneously undergoing mass gentrification, it'll cease to be New Orleans and become, to paraphrase an old saying: "A nice place to live, but you wouldn't want to visit."



September 12, 2005

Exclusive Photo!

High Level Review

High ranking Bush cabinet official reviews Michael Brown's resume
before recommending him to head FEMA.



RetroGen: January 18, 2005

The Sheep is my shepherd

Sheep Guardian

She maketh me to lie down in homemade basinets.



September 21, 2005

Audio Notes from Old Orleans



September 21, 2005

Ich Bin Ein Jellyroll

You might be surprised to learn I've never been to New Orleans. In fact, in March 1984, I purposely drove around it during Mardi Gras because I had a borrowed DriveAway car and $200 bucks to start a new life in California. I was terrified of something happening to the car, or my stuff, so I fell asleep in the car, 50 miles North in Hammond, listening to Mardi Gras madness on the radio. This is, of course, anathema to the Devil-may-care spirit of New Orleans, so I probably didn't deserve to be there.

Nonetheless, I'm feeling connected to, and very, very mournful of the city in a way I wouldn't have predicted.

Anyhow, in the city's perverse spirit of celebrating when it should be mourning, I'm announcing the first Bears Eat The Id contest:

One free CD (a surprise title) to the first person who can fully explain the name of this post!



RetroGen: January 20, 2005

Shoulder Peek