Cosmonautics
By Dennis Newkirk
İ COPYRIGHT 1995 by CSPACE PRESS INC. All rights reserved
-------------------------------------------------------
March/April 1995
International Space Station
As of this publication date, plans to add the Spektr module
to Mir are expected to be delayed. Spektr, and other modules have
had a long history of delays and carries important part equipment
for the NASA missions to Mir. Spektr's NASA payload was only part
of a $400 Million contract including components of the new
international space station.
The Mir modules are all based on the Chelomei TKS spacecraft
of which there were only a handful produced over a period of
several years in the 1970's. The design was adapted into Mir
modules by essentially custom building each module to meet a
different configuration inside and out. Only the booster
interfaces, launch shroud, life support and propulsion components
remained similar. In the case of Spektr, the modules major
assembly was completed in 1989 and launch was expected in mid-
1991. This date was passed over and the financial crisis following
the downfall of the USSR resulted on a moratorium being placed on
module launches in 1992. In an agreement signed on June 23 1993,
NASA bought space for 950 kg. payload on Spektr to support the
missions of NASA astronauts onboard Mir beginning with Norman
Thagardıs flight on Soyuz-TM 21. The launch already had to be
delayed until well into Thagardıs flight, and the latest delay
threatens to delay the STS-71 docking and Thagardıs own return to
Earth on the shuttle.
Now NASA is experiencing exactly what the Soviet and Russian
space program have experienced for decades while delays postponed
the strategic plans of their space program. Delays are excepted in
Russia as the normal state of affairs, especially in light of the
financial situation in the aerospace industry today. What remains
to be seen is how this plays in the USA in Congress and in the
popular media. NASA should have expected delays and prepared for
the contingency based on the long history of module delays even in
the old days of USSR management.
On Jan. 27 1995, Lockheed and Khrunichev finally signed a
$190 Million agreement for the purchase of the FGB, the first
component of the Alpha space station. NASA had been seeking the
agreement over several months of negotiations in 1994, using
Lockheed representatives which were familiar with the process of
negotiations with Khrunichev due to their LKEI relationship.
Khrunichev long maintained that NASA had underestimated the cost
of the module by up to 50%, but NASA took the hard line on cost
and stood firm.
Launch Systems
Among various booster developments, the table below shows the
major boosters in development today. Not shown are the several
projects proposed and not being significantly funded. One example
of this is MAKS, NPO Molniya's air launched booster concept which
is still in search of support, and they claim that the project
could be completed in 5-6 years although western funding is
essential.
Boosters in Development
Name LEO Payload GEO Payload Launch Site Operational
--------- -------------- ------------ ------------ -----------
Kosmos-M 1800 kg N/A Plesetsk 1998
Rokot 1850-2000 kg N/A Svobonyy 1996
Neva 5000 kg N/A Plesetsk 2000+
Soyuz-2 6800/8000 kg N/A Plesetsk/Baykonur 1998
Proton-M 22000 kg 3000 kg Baykonur 1998
Angara-24 24000/27000 kg 3500/5000 kg Plesetsk/Svobonyy 2000-
2002
The first tests of the upgraded engines for the Rus booster
were performed in December at a Samara facility in the Zhiguli
mountains. The engine tests were successful and production is to
begin in 1996. The first test flight under the Rokot name was
launched on December 26, 1994 from Baykonur. It carried a amateur
radio satellite on a small third stage called Briz. Some earlier
tests of the RS-18 ICBM were said to have been in some part tests
which would lead to the Rokot launcher. While the launch was
successful, the Radio-Rosto amateur radio satellite has reportedly
exhibited poor performance in shadowed portions for its orbit.
The Russian Space Agency is also funding development of
scramjet engines for future launchers. It is hoped that a test
engine called IGLA will be launched on a ballistic missile to
achieve speeds of Mach 14 sometime from 1998 to 2000.
Proton booster marketers LKEI have made great strides in the
last year. PANAMSAT has announced the signing of a contract for
$90 Million to launch a satellite on a Proton booster in 1996.
Proton launch orders from western companies now total 16 for a
total cost of about $1 Billion. Aerospatial has also agreed in
principal to allow Khrunichev build a Proton-M launch pad next to
Ariane-5 launch facilities at Kourou. There has been no
announcement of a contract yet, but the Russians are expecting to
share some infrastructure already on site. Russian industry in
the past has sometimes supplied propellants used in the Proton for
Ariane launches.
Still, the construction of new launch facilities at Kourou
may be beyond even LKEIıs financial reach. Today LKEI is still
pumping money in to Baykonur to maintain facilities there. $25
Million are planned to be spent there in the near term. And there
are hopes business could get even better for LKEI, on March 7
Reuters reported that Khrunichev officials expect the unilaterally
imposed US quota on Russian launches of western geostationary
satellites will be modified soon allowing more launches.
Space Industry
The Sokol Group Inc. in the USA has entered into an agreement
with NPO Mashinostroeniya and Rosvooruzhenyie to finance the
launch of the Almaz-1B radar imaging satellite. The groups hold
49, 47 and 4 percent respectively of the joint stock company setup
to fund the development. The cost is expected to total $370
Million, of which $120 Million have been spent already. The launch
on a Proton booster is planned for 1997 and the group hopes that
the project will pay for itself within 2 years of launch.
Some 1994 statistics were reported by the Russian ITAR-TASS
news agency:
Manned space program
spending for the year - 310 Million Roubles
Baykonur launches - 30 (with 36 satellites)
Proton launches - 13 (tieing the record number in 1984)
Plesetsk launches - 19 (with 29 satellites)
Percentage of launches by Soyuz/Molynia boosters - 37%
Spacecraft currently operated - 170
Military spacecraft launched - 29
Of the 170 satellites mentioned above, 104 have reached the
limit of their planned lifetimes. Russian space leaders Yuri
Semenov (RKK Energia head), Yuri Koptev (Russian Space Agency
head), and General Vladimir Ivanov (Strategic Rocket Forces chief)
briefed Duma deputies in January to raise the need to prioritize
military and civilian programs. While government decrees to
support various programs the funding is not always supplied.
Television news showed various spacecraft being prepared for
launch but lacking some parts. The point of the statement was to
shield the space sector from blame when inevitable failures of
old spacecraft begin to occur. In addition, reports state that 60%
of industry manufacturing equipment is decades old. Even when
satellites were launched in 1994 they sometimes had to dip into
military strategic reserves for boosters which are now depleted in
some cases.
In 1994 only 51% of funds requested were actually received.
Koptev said in December 1994 that the civil space budget for 1995
should be 2,200 Billion Roubles. In February 1995, Koptev
complained that the 1,187 Billion Roubles allocated in the 1995
budget was only 40% of the amount needed and comparable to the
space budget of India. He said 2,970 Billion Roubles were needed
for the civil program and 2,889 Billion for military programs. The
request was sent to the Ministry of Finance but it was expected
that less than the request would be allocated.
In February, Semenov sent letters to President Yeltsin and
Prime Minister Chernomyrdin stating that in a matter of months Mir
might have to be abandoned due to lack of funds. The letter was
acknowledged by all to be a political move to further amplify the
need for attention to the space budget for 1995. The need to
comply with international agreements with Europe and the USA were
noted. After the apocalyptic predictions, Koptev got Chernomyrdin
to promise extra funding for February and March, so expect the see
more reports in April appealing for funds.
Space Centers
Koptev also said that the RSA would not provide funds for
additional development of the Svobodny launch site due to the
successful agreement over use of Baykonur. Meanwhile, General
Ivanov said that the Ministry of Defense would phase out all
launches from Baykonur by 2003. Svobodny and Plesetsk would assume
the responsibility for all military launches and he said that
Svobodnyıs first launch in 1996 was on schedule, but Angara launch
pads would have to be built at Svobodny for the plan to be
completed. So, in the next few years the RSA and the Ministry of
Defense will have to come to some agreement over new launch pads
at Svobodny for these plans to proceed.
Now that the political maneuvering over control of Baykonur
has been temporarily settled after the signing of detail
agreements between Kazakstan and Russia the work to implement the
terms is at hand. Kazakstan has agreed that some of the Russian
payment of rent may take the form of products, and petroleum
production equipment has been mentioned. This talk may be a bit
premature since Kazakstan currently owes $1.3 Billion to Russia.
Rumors of great problems at Baykonur are still making the
rounds. A Kazakstan newspaper reported in February that a
satellite built in the USA for India had been destroyed while
undergoing preparations for launch at a Proton launch pad. The
report was never acknowledged and no such satellite is known to
exist.
In January, and in association with the EuroMir missions, a
crew of 3 Russians working for the Institute of Medical and
Biological Problems completed a nearly 4 month isolation
experiment in a spacecraft mockup to test psychological
compatibility for future interplanetary missions.
A Japanese Hope spaceplane model will move to Russia for
aerodynamic testing with the agreement for TsAGI (Central Aero-
Hydrodynamics Institute). The objective is for independent tests
which cannot be carried out in Japan in preparations for a Hope
launch in 1999.
Military Aerospace
The realm of cooperation took an unusual turn late last year
when a S-300 anti-aircraft missile system was delivered from
Belarus to the Redstone Arsenal in Alabama. It is touted by Russia
to be superior to the American Patriot system. The system was sold
in a shady deal without Russian approval but involved the
Belarussian President. Now, Russian reports say that the system
being studied in Alabama for months now is not exactly what it
appears. Russian agents claim that the control system of the
missiles was modified with unusual software versions which will
make it very difficult if not impossible to decipher any of it.
The cold war was known for these kind of disinformation efforts, a
recent book claims that US disinformation on pumping equipment
caused a major set back for Soviet natural gas pipeline
development. The cold war may be over but some things never
change.
On January 25, the Air Defense Forces reported that they had
shot down a missile fired from western Europe. Within hours the
report was retracted and the true nature of the initial report
became known. A routine sounding rocket launched from Norway
toward Spitzbergen to study aurora, passing no closer that 250 km
to Russia, had conveniently been used by Russian military
commanders to gain political visibility. Russian radars did in
fact track the missile and the units were praised by President
Yeltsin for the routine event. Apparently the hoax made it all the
way to Yeltsin who said he used his emergency communication system
to reach the Defense Minister and other Generals. The missile
flight had in fact been reported, as usual, through scientific
channels to Russia several days before the launch. Some reports
say that while the military is caught up in the slow moving mess
of the Chechneya invasion they felt the necessity to deflect
public attention to it and put Russian defenses in a better light
with the creation of this story. This was not the only case of
false stories, on Jan. 18 a report also came from the Air Defense
Forces that an American spy plane had been forced to land in
Kamchatka. The report, made on site by at the district command
center was completely false but officials in Moscow did nothing to
confirm or deny it.
In March, a team from the USA arrived in Russia to begin spot
inspections of Russian military bases in the CIS to verify
compliance of the Start-1 treaty. They will visit many sites
including some in which the Russians are given only 9 hours notice
of the site chosen. Russian inspection teams were in the US
performing similar inspections at the same time. The US teams will
see 65 sites and the Russians 36 sites over a period of 4 months.
[Information for this article comes from publicly available
sources including the Foreign Broadcast Information Service, Joint
Publications Research Service, BBC Monitoring, Voice of America,
and the Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Daily Report. Also,
special thanks to Rex Hall.]
Cosmonautics News is reprinted here with permission from CSPACE
PRESS INC., P.O. Box 9331, Grand Rapids, Michigan, 49509-0331
-----------------------------------------------------------------