Cosmonautics
By Dennis Newkirk
COPYRIGHT 1995 by CSPACE PRESS INC. All rights reserved
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May/June 1995
International Space Station
Two days before the successful launch of astronaut Norm
Thagard on Soyuz TM-21, Russian news services carried the rumor
that Thagard was a spy and that another astronaut, Ken Cameron,
had been expelled from Russia on spying charges. The source and
motive for the rumor was not immediately known, but Russian
officials and NASA both released statements that no one had been
spying or expelled. It was true that Cameron had left his
assignment in Russia as a support member for astronauts training
at Zvezdnyy Gorodok to take up the command of the second shuttle-
Mir docking mission in 1995. At the same time rumors were floating
that bugs had been found in the training facility, no doubt to
support spying rumors.
Attending the TM-21 launch were around 100 US citizens, half
of those being reporters, some tourists and NASA representatives.
Following the Soyuz TM-21 launch a minor fire was ignited on
support equipment and cables at the pad. Strong winds may have
been responsible for forcing the boosters exhaust away from the
flame duct and onto equipment not normally exposed to fire. The
fire was described as minor and the damage was probably
negligible.
In February, former ASTP commander Thomas Stafford visited
production facilities at Khrunichev and RKK Energia, and also
visited Baykonur as part of a NASA advisory group. He was
familiarizing himself with Russian industry supporting the joint
ventures with NASA leading to the International Space Station
Alpha (ISSA).
While the ISSA is being built in the late 1990's it is
increasingly likely that Mir will be manned longer than recently
planned. The ESA is thinking about a late 1997 mission to Mir
assuming it remains operational. This will push its manned
operations into 1998. Depending on how delayed assembly of Alpha
becomes, Mir might remain needed until nearly 2000 and thatıs not
bad for any spacecraft launched in 1986.
Launch Systems
On March 28 at 1:00 PM Moscow time a Start-2 booster, a new
version of the Topol SS-25 solid propellant ICBM, was launched
from Plesetsk. Early Russian reports say the flight failed when
the 5th stage ignited 12 seconds early. Western reports that the
failure was in the 4th stage may be due to misunderstanding
because the Russians reports claimed it had both 5 or 6 stages.
The booster developed by the Moscow Institute of Thermal
Technology was carrying 3 small satellites, Techsat-1 from Israel,
the Russian EKA-2 and a Mexican amateur radio satellite. The
launch was being supervised by one of the Institutes First Deputy
General Designers. The launch was arranged by the Complex
subsidiary of the Institute and financed by the IVK joint stock
investment company. At first it seemed that the launch was
successful but after checking the next day for the satellites
after their first orbits at the expected 700 km. and 78°
inclination, they were not found. There was little or no cost for
the launch which was to demonstrate the new version of the
booster. It is hoped that as many as 10 Start-2 can be launched a
year. The launch itself was insured but the payloads were not, the
Techsat was valued at $3.5 to 4 Million. The Israeli Technion
Institute of Technology has requested a reflight opportunity but
it is unknown if another free flight will be available.
Meanwhile, Complex is scouting for launch sites in Australia
for the Start. Not to be confused with the abandoned plans to
launch Protonıs from Cape York, this investigation is seeking
suitable sites for to launch the mobile Start boosters. Among the
sites being considered are Darwin, Woomera and a southwestern
site.
On March 23, the German firm Deutsche Aerospace and
Khrunichev formed a joint venture to market launches of the Rokot
booster. The first launch under control of the joint agreement is
to be in 1997 from Plesetsk. It is hoped that the Rokot can be
sold to launch little-LEO type communications satellites.
In June, a Delta III submarine is scheduled to launch a Volna
SS-N-18 built by the Makeyev Design Bureau carrying a German
satellite on a 20 minute ballistic flight. Similar test flights
have taken place in the last couple of years but this is the first
one with an announced foreign payload. The satellite is being
supplied by DARA and will be recovered after a sea landing near
Kamchatka. The Volna is a 2 stage booster with a 250-650 kg.
payload for altitudes from 2300 to 3000 km..
The Russian-US agreement on limits for launching
geostationary satellites may be increased soon. This follows a
similar but less sever agreement with China. RAS head Yuri Koptev
recently said that the Russian quota is expected to at least
double from 12 to 24 launches by 2000.
Space Industry
China and Russia may conclude an agreement to cooperate in
manned spaceflight as soon as April 1995. China is planning for
the first mission to be in 2002.
On March 2 Russian Space Agency head Yuri Koptev proposed
that the space industry should be exempt from the value added tax,
given the lowest possible utility rates, a new government budget
be allocated, and customs duties be dropped for foreign apparatus
used in international projects. The proposal comes after the 1995
space program budget was to cut fundingto half that of 1994
(1994ıs budget was only half the value initially requested). The
budget now stands at one fifth of the 1989 budget.
Soyuz boosters were once produced at the rate of 60 a year,
now the rate is only about a dozen a year. Some of the reduction
is due to supply problems due to the unwillingness and financial
difficulty in using established Ukrainian suppliers. Military
reserves of Soyuz boosters which have been used for recent
Progress launches are nearly depleted. New Soyuz boosters cost 12
Billion Roubles and transporting the boosters to Baykonur now
costs a Billion Roubles (totaling $2.6 Million at the exchange
rate at the time, but still a substantial amount of the total
Russian space budget - around 6 Trillion Roubles).
While it may be hoped that commercial projects will aid
industry while the government funds are cut, Koptev noted that
bank investments in the industry was being inhibited due to
inflation and the long period before space projects yield profits.
He noted that in some cases 80% of the budget goes to pay
utilities bills for facilities, and the arbitrary imposition of
fees from local governments where launch or recovery activities
take place further aggravate the situation. The Finance Ministry
agreed to try and improve funding for NPO PM in Krasnoyarsk which
reportedly was near financial collapse. Since some of the proposal
encroaches into other Ministries duties, namely changes to the
Finance Ministries collection of taxes, it was decided to raise
the issue to level of a presidential edict.
Koptev visited Brazil in March to discuss increasing
cooperation between the two countries. Agreements between Brazil
and the USSR were signed in 1988 and the hope was that a new
agreement would at least renew the old agreement. Prospective
areas for cooperation were reported to be ecological and Earth
resources monitoring, telecommunications, and use of the Alcantara
launch site to launch small satellites within the next 2 years
(maybe the Start as noted in the previous section).
Lockheed Martin signed an agreement with the Design Bureau of
Transport Machinery for launch system improvements for the Atlas
booster at Cape Canaveral. Chief Designer Gennadiy Biryukov
announced the agreement on March 30 and said the financial aspect
is insignificant. Specifically the improvements are to increase
the possible flight rate and reliability of launch systems.
The Machine Building sector responsible for aerospace and
military production has not attracted private business orders as
hoped in 1994. Production in 1994 versus 1993 was down by 50%. The
rate of decline has decreased in 1995 but there are few hopes for
a turn around anytime soon. The only positive is that the amount
of funding provisioned by the government in 1994 was actually
enough to theoretically cover the programs requested, in contrast
to the situation in 1993. Still, that does not mean all is well.
Wages due to workers in the aerospace industry are chronically
late by up to 3 months.
The total debt due to space industry and its workers is 300
Billion Roubles. The debt is growing and among the total Russian
economy over 30,000 businesses are caught up in a shortfall of
over 5 Trillion Roubles. The problem is growing and to add insult
to injury, the massive inflation is not figured into the late
wages so everyone gets payed in 'old roubles' worth 20-30% less
than when they were due, depending on how bad inflation has been
during the delay.
One report claims that the governments program to pay back
wages is being successful, at least the moneys are allocated and
mostly given to the industry, but industry is compensating for any
losses in recent years by taking their share first and continuing
to delay back wages to workers. The report further states that
trade unions afraid of confronting their management about the debt
and are continuing to protest against the government despit its
corrective actions. In response, the government is trying to
force businesses which are still partially government owned to
make the payments.
Even if all the problems above get worked out, the Russian
budget is walking a tightrope because reserve funds for
emergencies have already been exhausted for 1995. Prospects for
recovery seem dim because government revenues for 1995 so far have
been less than expected.
Space Centers
The new Plesetsk launch complex for Zenit boosters is to be
completed in the 1996-97 time period allowing for the first launch
of the Zenit from the northern cosmodrome. The other half of the
complex is expected to be a multipurpose launch pad for the Angara
booster now in the early development stages. It will not be
completed for many years.
Despite the 1994 agreement over use of the Baykonur
Cosmodrome by Russia, conditions have not improved much. In fact,
none of the money promised by Russia for renting the hugh complex
has been paid. The problem is that there is an existing debt
Kazakstan owes Russia from previous years which has yet to be
reconciled, and until that is done nothing will be done at
Baykonur or Leninsk until it endangers the success of the most
important programs.
On April 11, there was a large celebration at Zvezdnyy
Gorodok (Star City) attended by about 1000 employees and residents
in the city. Recently returned cosmonauts Polyakov, Kondakova and
Viktorenko were the guests of honor after their record setting
voyage in space. The celebration lasted for hours and the standard
state awards were given with a message of congratulations from
President Boris Yeltsin.
Military Aerospace
In April, it was reported that 40% of nuclear weapons in
Ukraine have been moved to Russia including warheads from 40 out
of 176 ICBM's. In addition, up to 460 warheads have been removed
from SS-24 ICBM's and half of 780 warheads from SS-19's have been
removed. Also returned to Russia were 20 SS-19 ICBM's which are
also being used as the basis of the Rokot launch vehicle. The US
Defense Secretary, William Perry, was in Ukraine in April and
witnessed a SS-19 being destroyed at the Pervomaisk ICBM base.
Also, Russian Strategic Missile Forces Cheif Viktor Yesin said
that all Soviet era nuclear weapons have been removed from
Kazakstan. This includes up to 1040 warheads from 104 SS-18
ICBM's.
As noted in the last installment of this column, a
intelligence fiasco has been uncovered regarding the sale of a
Belarus S-300 PMU (SA-10 Grumble) missile system to the USA. Now
there is news that another deal has been arranged for the
additional sale of a S-300V (SA-12 Giant) anti-aircraft missile
system. The cost is reported to be $60 Million, and as with the
previous sale, Russian military leaders are wary of handing over
the system to the USA. After the experience of the pervious sale
which later was reported to be a non-standard configuration of a
non-operational system and with unusual software, courtesy of a
Russian counter intelligence, one can be sure that we will never
really know if this latest deal is worth anything at all.
Oops...
On March 4, after the successful flight of the Foton-10
mission carrying a European payload of material processing
experiments, the capsule was heavily damaged when it was dropped
from a helicopter. The capsule was recovered by the Federal
Aerospace Search and Rescue Service and was being transported from
the landing site near Orenburg to the city in heavy fog. The
capsule (similar in size and shape of the old Vostok capsules) was
in a net hung from the helicopter which began swinging
uncontrollably endangering the aircraft. At an altitude of about
100 meters the neting was dropped and capsule crashed to the
ground. The French Ibis and ESA Biobox devices were damaged but
some samples were recoverable. The Biobox lost most all of its
results while the Ibis had only 14 of 60 samples destroyed.
Something over 50% of the semiconductor samples were intact. The
head of the investigating committee said that there had never been
any similar occurrence in the history of the space program.
[Information for this article comes from publicly available
sources including the Foreign Broadcast Information Service, Joint
Publications Research Service, BBC Monitoring, Voice of America,
and the Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Daily Report. Also,
special thanks to Rex Hall and James Oberg.]
Cosmonautics News is reprinted here with permission from CSPACE
PRESS INC., P.O. Box 9331, Grand Rapids, Michigan, 49509-0331
cspace@delphi.com
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