This report last updated
Saturday, May 30, 2015 07:18 AM
There are some high clouds over Northern California this morning as an area of low pressure off the coast slowly slides to the east towards the mainland. Drainage winds out of the northeast have been present overnight since about 9 pm last night, running 1-2 mph and a peak of 3 mph. Temperatures are currently running about 3° warmer than 24 hours ago, with a low temperature so far since midnight of 62°.
Today should see another day of above-normal temperatures and clear to partly cloudy skies of high Cirrus clouds. The cutoff low pressure area off the Northern California coast will continue to drift to the east northeast towards the California and Oregon border, bringing periods of high clouds and nudge the ridge of high pressure currently over us towards the Great Basin. Temperatures should remain above-normal (77°) today, with a projected high temperature dropping back about 1° from Friday's high, reaching 83° this afternoon. The low temperature tonight is forecast to drop to near 61°. Winds out of the northeast should end shortly after sunrise, becoming calm for about an hour or so before turning out of the southwest at 5-9 mph into the afternoon hours.
Sunday should see the offshore upper low pressure area continue to approach the coast and bring increasing and lowering cloud cover. By the afternoon, the odds of measurable precipitation increases to a 10% chance. Most of the precipitation from this weather system is expected to remain to our north. A slight deviation in the low pressure's trajectory to the south could bring a slightly better chance of precipitation to our area, but is highly unlikely. A cooler air mass and increased onshore air flow should allow for a cooling effect on Sunday, with a high temperature predicted to still remain above-normal, but drop back to near 80°. The low temperature Sunday night is forecast to drop to near 55°. We should see increasing southerly winds by Sunday afternoon, possibly reaching as high as 16 mph over open terrain and at the tree tops.
Monday could see a better shot at showers or thundershowers in Magalia as the upper low will be at its closest to our area. Precipitation odds are currently set at a 15% chance by sunrise and continuing at those odds into about late Monday night. Obviously the chances of precipitation aren't very high, so any rainfall will likely be isolated and more confined to the higher mountain areas. Continued cooling should only allow Monday's high temperature to reach about 71°, and the low Monday night about 52°. Winds could gust as high as 12-14 mph out of the southeast on Monday, backing down to about 5 mph late Monday night. The snow level should drop down to about 8500'.
Tuesday should be a transitional day as the low pressure system continues to slide to the northeast and away from the region, and a ridge of high pressure builds back in. There's still a 10% chance of precipitation on Tuesday, but will likely remain dry on that day. Fair and warmer conditions will likely ensue for the rest of next week. The European forecast model is advertising an area of low pressure forming over Central California by the latter-half of next week. This scenario could bring a slight threat of precipitation back to the area, but is too far in the future to be a confident forecast. We'll see how things pan out in future forecast models. Have a great weekend. Bob