Thursday, April 24, 2014 07:32 AM
This morning is seeing partly cloudy skies and warmer conditions as warm air advection ahead of a Pacific trough and associated cold front is over our area. Temperatures are running almost 10° warmer than the same time Wednesday morning. The low this morning has been 47°. The overnight down-slope drainage winds have also been a bit weak, averaging about 1 mph.
We will see clouds and a chance of some rain showers today as the Pacific trough and cold front are approaching the coastline. There are some scattered radar echoes this morning over the northwestern parts of the state, and a line of prefrontal rain showers over the Trinity mountains. Those showers may affect our area later today if they hold together, but there is currently only a 15% chance of rain showers in Magalia this afternoon. Those odds are expected to rise to a 45% chance by late afternoon and 65% late tonight as the clouds increase and thicken with the approaching cold front. Less than 0.20" is predicted through midnight tonight. Temperatures today are forecast to be near 62° this afternoon (the same as Wed.), dropping to 43° tonight. Winds should be light this morning, with southerly winds increasing to 5-11 mph today and tonight.
Friday may see a decent soaking rain, especially during the morning hours when the odds of rain will peak out at an 80% chance. There's also a chance of some thunderstorms on Friday, and a slight chance a few of those could be severe, especially over valley and lower foothill areas. A colder air mass will spread across the region, bringing Magalia a chilly day, and lowering the snow levels down to near 4000'. The high temperature in Magalia on Friday afternoon is only expected to reach about 49°. Friday night will possibly see a very chilly night, with a low of 36° currently predicted. Southerly winds up to 10 mph are expected through Friday afternoon, gradually decreasing Friday night.
This weekend may see the Donkey Derby and parade dodge the rain bullet, as there's only predicted to be a 5% to 10% chance of measurable precipitation during the event's timeframe. It will be a bit chilly Saturday morning, running near the lower 40°s when the Donkey Derby starts. It may be in the mid-50°s in Paradise when the parade starts, so bring a jacket! Sunday may see an increased chance of precipitation as a weak wave passes through the region. The current forecast model has only a 20% chance of rain by Sunday morning, decreasing to about a 5% chance by Sunday night. The current prognosis has high pressure building into the region for the first half of next week, with fair and milder weather. Have a great Thursday. Bob