Monday, October 20, 2014 07:20 AM
After a beautiful weekend, the next in a series of weather systems which are predicted to bring a chance of rain to Magalia has come ashore this early morning and is forecast to reach our area later this morning. Rain has already begun over the Northern Sacramento Valley and is slowly sliding to the east as the initial cold front proceeds the trough behind it. Moisture from the trough's cold core will pass through our region later today, and will continue the chances of rainfall. The trough will produce more showery weather
This early morning is starting out partly cloudy and cool. Temperatures ahead of the cold front are running about 4° warmer than 24 hours ago, and a low so far of 54° and slowly rising. Winds this morning have been northeasterly at 1-2 mph, and occasionally at 3 mph. Humidity levels are running in the lower 80% range, so any rainfall will not have to moisten up the atmosphere before reaching the ground.
Measurable precipitation chances are at a 0% chance this early morning, but will increase to a 25% chance by sunrise. Those odds rise to a 70% chance by late morning into mid-afternoon. As the cold core of the trough passes through our area later this afternoon, convection will increase and bring a continued threat of showers, and even a slight chance of thundershowers to Magalia. There is a slight chance of thundershowers late this afternoon into early tonight. Some of the colder cloud top thunderstorms may produce small hail, but is not likely. Precipitation odds decrease to a 45% chance by late afternoon into late tonight, and a 20% chance by day change. Snow levels this morning will initially be near 9000', but should drop to near 5900' by late tonight.
Temperatures this morning will be in the mid-50°s, only rising the the lower 60°s this afternoon. Temperatures this afternoon will be partially dependant on the amount of sunshine we see. As the cold core of the trough passes through the region, it will bring about colder temperatures tonight compared to last night's readings. The low tonight is forecast to drop to near the mid-40°s, so have your heating devices at the ready. It's going to be a rather chilly night.
Winds in Magalia should be light this early morning, but southeasterly winds will pick up as the cold front nears. Southeasterly winds will blow at 9-14 mph, with gusts over wind prone areas up to 21 mph. Winds tonight should be south to southeasterly up to 8 mph. Winds over the higher mountains could gust as high as 41 mph.
Tuesday should see precipitation odds decrease as the trough shifts to the east of us, and a weak yet brief ridge builds into the region. This respite should continue into Wednesday. Temperatures on Tuesday are expected to be somewhat close to today's readings, and a little warmer on Wednesday. A large area of low pressure will build in the Gulf of Alaska and impact our weather through the weekend. By Thursday, the large area of low pressure is forecast to bring another threat of rainfall to Magalia by the morning hours. The threat of precipitation is currently forecast to linger into at least early Sunday morning as the low in the Gulf of Alaska drops south and moves inland into the west coast. The center of the low is currently predicted to cross the coastline somewhere near the Pacific Northwest. The associated trough will likely bring some precipitation as far south as the San Joaquin Valley. The system should be east of us by about late Sunday into Monday. The GFS forecast model has another weather system and associated cold front affecting our area by about Tuesday of next week, and another shot at rainfall for Magalia. Have a great Monday. Bob