Thursday, October 23, 2014 07:31 AM
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A large area of low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska and an elongated cold front is bringing clouds and some precipitation to Northern California. The only reporting station near our area so far to measure out any rain has been at Carpenter Ridge at 0.01". This should change today as the cold front slowly drops to the southeast and light precipitation slowly encroaches southward. Little rainfall if any is predicted to drop south of I-80. Heavier amounts will also fall in the mountain areas as lift will eek out as much moisture as possible. Colder air associated with the large low pressure area will spread across the area as the cold front passes through. Temperatures this morning are running about 4° warmer than 24 hours ago, with a low so far of 53°. Winds overnight have been northeasterly at 1 to 2 mph. As of this early morning, we have seen 3.19" of rain this season which is 0.38" behind normal.
Today should see mostly cloudy skies and a chance of rain showers. The cold front is just reaching the far northwestern corner of the state, and that is where the majority of the rainfall has been overnight. There is a 45% chance of rain this morning, increasing to a 50% chance by this afternoon. Odds roll back to a 45% chance late this afternoon, and down to a 35% chance tonight. The current forecast model predicts about a quarter of an inch of rain accumulation through today and tonight here in Magalia. Snow levels should be above 10,000' through today as a relatively mild air mass is over us. The high temperature this afternoon is only expected to reach about 60, and a low temperature tonight near 52°. Winds should pick up out of the southeast today as the cold front nears, running 6-13 mph, and gusts over wind prone areas as high as 20 mph.
Friday should see a ridge of high pressure build into the region and push the clouds and rain back to the north of us, decreasing our chances of rain to a 5% chance by the afternoon, and continuing at those odds into late night. Odds rise to a 10% chance by day change. Skies will be partly sunny, and warmer temperatures. The high on Friday is currently forecast to reach a comfortable 68°, and the low Friday night near 52°. Winds will be southeasterly at 7-10 mph.
Saturday and Sunday may see a better shot at rain in Magalia as a Pacific low pressure area nears the CA/OR border and comes ashore just to our northwest. As the low nears, convection in the atmosphere may increase enough to bring about a chance of some heavy rain showers or thundershowers during Saturday afternoon and continuing into early Sunday morning. Cooler air will drop the afternoon high temperature down to near 57°. The low Saturday night is forecast at 46°. Snow levels should drop into the 6000' range on Saturday into Sunday morning. Sunday's temperatures should be somewhat similar to Saturday's readings.
Rainfall chances decrease to a 5% chance late Sunday, and continue at those odds through early Monday morning, before a 0% chance into Monday afternoon. A shortwave trough passing through the Pacific Northwest will bring another shot at precipitation in Magalia late Monday into at least early Wednesday. This system is not expected to be a gully washer, but we'll take anything we can get. Next week's forecast is low on confidence as the different models are at odds with each other after midweek. Have a great Thursday. Bob