Saturday, December 20, 2014 07:11 AM
A rainy night once again as we see a Pacific weather system come ashore. This system is predicted to gradually decrease in precipitation coverage as the day wears on, possibly ending in valley areas by this afternoon, but possibly lingering in the foothills and mountain areas into this evening. This morning is seeing some dense fog accompanying the light to moderate rainfall here in Magalia. The peak rainfall rate was 1.39"/hr. at 4:08 am. This location has seen 0.44" of rain since midnight, by sunrise. The low temperature this morning has been 44°. There has been some winds this morning out of the southeast, with a peak gust of 7 mph.
Today should see mostly cloudy skies and a chance of precipitation through much of the day. A ridge of high pressure off the west coast is drifting to the east and should bring about a drying out period for the beginning of next week. The swath of moisture responsible for the current rainfall should get pushed to the north by the ridge, effectively ending the rain by about Sunday night. There's a 70% chance of rain this morning, decreasing to a 20% chance by late tonight. Snow levels are about 5000' this morning, but are expected to rise to near 9000' tonight. The high temperature this afternoon in Magalia is predicted to remain near 44°, so outside temperatures will be flat-lined throughout the morning through afternoon hours. A warmer air mass is predicted to allow the overnight temperatures tonight to actually be a little warmer than this afternoon, with a predicted low of about 45°. Winds today and tonight are forecast to be south to southeasterly at 5-9 mph.
Sunday looks as though there may be a continued chance of rain showers in the foothill areas through about late afternoon before the ridge of high pressure lifts the rain to our north. There's a 20% chance of rain from the morning into late afternoon, before dropping back to a 10% chance for the rest of Sunday. The warmer air mass over us should allow for a warming trend to begin on Sunday, with the afternoon high currently predicted to reach about 53°, and the low Sunday night near 45°. Winds should be southeast at about 5 mph, becoming light and variable by Sunday evening.
Monday through Tuesday looks as though both days will be dry and warmer, with the afternoon high temperature on Tuesday possibly reaching 58°. Both days currently have a 0% chance of rain in the forecast. By Wednesday, an "inside slider" type system is forecast to drop into The Great Basin. Most of the energy and colder air is forecast to remain to our north with this system, but discrepancies between different forecast models regarding this weather system are making the forecast for that far into the future low in the confidence of its accuracy. The current forecast shows showers Christmas Eve night with a temperature of 37°. That would put snow very close to Magalia, but with low confidence, I'm not holding my breath.
The current prognosis has a sunny Christmas Day, with a high temperature predicted at 46°. Again, with low confidence in the current forecast model the Christmas Day prediction may not be 100% accurate. We'll have to wait for the different forecast models to converge before confidence will increase, then we will know if snow (or any precipitation at all) will be close to Magalia on Christmas Day. Have a great weekend. Bob