ANATOMY OF AN EMERGENCY
Written by
Captain Ralph W. Omholt


INTRODUCTION


The paradox in modern airline operations is that the aviation industry has failed to learn the lessons derived from the design, operation and sinking of the Titanic, in 1912. We now approach 100 years of history, repeating the same formula for disaster, brilliantly illustrated by a terrific Hollywood movie. Yet, today, we still see design shortcuts and managerial mistakes being made in the light as the cost cutting and attempted profit reaping of the Titanic tragedy. Not surprisingly, the result is the same - tragic and unnecessary deaths.

We also see the nearly identical failures in the onboard crew teamwork, resulting in air disasters, instead. Today that teamwork is a science, referred to as Crew Resource Management, or, CRM, researched and developed by NASA. Without explanation, the FAA has gone on record as refusing the National Transportation Safety Board's (NTSB) pleas to implement the practices of CRM at the cockpit level; the only place it has any relevance or effect. We repeatedly witness CRM failings behind incidents and accidents, and disasters.

The worst disaster in aviation history - the collision of two B-747s - illustrated the potential for disasters caused by crew teamwork (CRM) failings; yet the FAA all but refuses to address the CRM issue in a dynamic manner. Most recently, the combined 99 fatalities in American flight 1420 and Alaska flight 261 punctuated the desperate need for CRM; yet the FAA still refuses to budge.

Conversely, successful examples of safety, effected by CRM, are methodically overlooked, almost 'buried.' The UA-232 accident (Sioux City crash) is the only known exception of any prominence. Paradoxically, the FAA illustrates the UA-232 accident as an example of CRM, while refusing to actually implement CRM in the cockpits. Thus, the FAA creates the illusion that they dynamically endorse CRM. Few positions could be further from the truth.

Given the mechanical factors, we are thus confronted with the terrible proposition that we must prepare for more disasters. Prevention by any means is the only solution. Awareness of the true reality is required, as then, only a difference can be made. With short-term profits being an economic fetish, information and awareness, with the threat of accountability - on a ledger-sheet or in a courtroom - seem to be the only tools.

The staggering reality is that those paying the 'pittance' fares to ride a bus across town or across country are entitled to a radically higher standard of safety than the airline passenger - anywhere. The bus driver's civil and legal rights as a wage earner are far superior to those of an airline captain.

Yet, we may be certain, for the moment, that more incidents, accidents and disasters will continue to happen. Hence, the core of the following material is intended to give an appropriate in-dept insight into that time, "when things go wrong." The following presentation is intended to cover the mechanical, psychological and emotional aspects of an emergency, so as to render a reasonably complete presentation of the complexity of airline emergencies.


AIRLINE EMERGENCIES

Everyone who has a responsibility for airline safety needs a clear understanding of previous emergencies as well as reasonably expected human response under stress. That knowledge is needed to effectively direct the desired response of individuals, control small groups or possibly to manage a crowd.

Human response in emergencies is highly varied and unfortunately unpredictable. Aircraft accidents are rare and very little research has been conducted in the aviation emergency and disaster environment. It is simply impossible to predict what any individual, or group is likely to do in a given set of circumstances. Suffice it to say, that emergencies and accidents rarely have reliable similarities.

Airline emergencies have a maddening characteristic; they are extremely mobile. An entire scenario can be played out in flight, with an imminent disaster avoided in flight, allowing an aircraft to continuing on to its original destination. An actual accident can occur en route, involving anything from a mid-air collision to a bomb explosion. The actual accident can occur on land or in the ocean. Statistically, most accidents happen within a few miles of an airport, however, there is obviously no guarantee. The worst-case scenario is an accident far from civilization, where survivors must wait for rescue - if it ever reaches them in time.

An amazing irony confronts the airline industry in that the pertinence of the popular movie, "Titanic" is technically accurate to an extreme as a depiction of a program for disaster, from the contributing background factors, through the depictions of human responses, ranging from the background to the aftermath. Yet, few in the aviation industry seem to have learned from that, or any disaster.


The issues to be explored in this material include -

* The background factors in emergencies.

* The role of passengers in emergencies.

* The four active phases of an emergency.

* The emotional and psychological impact.

* The variability and unpredictability of human response.

* The impact of stress on decision-making.

* The critical requirement for information and effective communication.

* The importance of leadership in emergencies.

* The dynamics of aircraft evacuations.


EMERGENCY
- Defined

For many of us an emergency can be simply defined as:

"An event, or set of events, which disrupts our normal day-to-day routine." We are all familiar with minor 'road rage' and the tears and words of anger over the classic tube of toothpaste, squeezed in the middle.

An emergency, as we normally regard the term in a life threatening sense, can erupt suddenly, or evolve over a considerable period of time. An emergency can obviously result in physical damage and injury to people; possibly leading to the loss of life.

The types of emergencies and their causes vary to an extreme. No two emergencies are exactly the same. Some emergencies, such as acts-of-war, are deliberate and man-made. Other emergencies result from natural causes. For our purposes, we will concentrate on the airline community with its human error; and systems or mechanical failure.

The importance of the emergency issue addresses the fact that the aviation community, particularly the airline industry is quickly growing. Thus, more people are exposed to flight emergencies. Despite a good safety record, accidents and major disasters still happen. Beyond the mechanical factors, it is necessary to acknowledge the importance of behavioral issues. A large portion of human behavior knowledge comes from studies in emergency situation 'crowd management.'

Ironically, maritime studies and safety rules are far ahead of the aviation community. The maritime environment often provides additional rules and procedures for dealing with people's special needs and keeping order, reducing and avoiding panic.

In addition, such maritime codes call for personnel with the responsibility for the safety of passengers in an emergency situation, to follow approved training in crisis management and human behavior which includes, but is not limited to:

* Situational assessment and the provision of an effective response.

* Leadership during abnormal situations and emergencies.

* Identification of indicators and symptoms of excessive personal stress, and adverse stress response.

* Identification of the impact of stress on response and its effect on passenger and crew performance.

* Awareness of passenger and crew response/reactions in emergencies.

* Recognition of specific responses of passengers and crew.

* Recognizing the possibility, probability and character of panic.

* Recognizing and understanding the importance of timely, clear and concise information, instructions and reports, and the exchange of information and dynamic feedback.

* Effective communication of instructions requiring crew and passenger action.



In a sentence, the aviation community is far behind. The amazing tragedy is that the gap in safety is profit driven, just as in the Titanic affair. Interestingly, the maritime community learned the obvious lessons; appropriately applying them.


LEADERSHIP

An emergency can quickly become complex, given the various layers of leadership involved. An emergency can be as simple as a captain calling for a checklist, resolving the threat. It can be a dispatcher's decision to divert an aircraft due to weather, a mechanical problem or a bomb threat. Leadership can be the resolution of the final solution or the needed authority. While the captain is mechanically and legally the final authority, history proves that a captain's decisions can be swayed by political threat; another Titanic.

Effective leadership requires the ability to be flexible, the willingness to adapt one's belief system or style, to accommodate a unique or rapidly changing situation, and/or set of circumstances.

The gifted leader might be able to achieve the desired effect automatically, while others need training and the time to think before deciding on a course of action. Such courses of action are usually described as autocratic, democratic, or composite.

In environments such as aviation, teamwork (democratic or composite) is required. Normally, the captain is the team leader. Such a role often requires an autocratic or authoritarian style. Despite normal roles and responsibilities, the role of a good leader in emergencies is to effect a safe outcome, via teamwork.

The autocratic style or role is often visualized as an extreme style. Often it is feared out of tradition or prejudice, without good cause. In recent years, the science of Crew Resource Management (CRM) has been effected, with great success. Conversely, most of the accidents which we have recently witnessed, contained a major failing of that safety teamwork.

Where the individual asserts his/her style will depend on the immediate requirement, the task at hand, the immediate environment and the people involved. The inter-relationships will equally include their perceptions, understanding of the situation, preferences, prejudices and, of course, the time available.


POWER

Power is the primary resource, which enables a leader to influence individuals and groups. It is that power which is utilized to direct the efforts of others toward the achievement of the desired objective. Power comes in a variety of forms.


PERSUASION

Persuasive or coercive power effects compliance, rather than creating commitment, by eliminating perceived options and otherwise motivating people. In an emergency, that form of power creates action through fear of an adverse outcome such as accountability, pain, injury or death.

For example, "We must listen to the pilots and flight attendants if we want to survive. Calm down and just LISTEN!"


ASSUMPTION

Assumed power is based on the immediate leader's actual or perceived connection with influential or important people.

For example, "The captain has asked me to advise everybody that ..."


EXPERTISE

The effect of expertise is related to a leader's special knowledge and/or skills. It can be used very effectively to influence those who are aware that they do not have the same magnitude of knowledge and/or skills themselves. In most cases, people quickly display respect for expertise, which gains and facilitates compliance.

For example, "Attention everybody, I am a policeman. We have a case of sky-rage, but the individual has been subdued and secured, everything is going to be okay. Please go back to your seats."


UNIQUE INFORMATION

Information available to the immediate leader can be a source of power, if that leader has information that others need or want.

For example, "Attention please, we have to clear the aisles and the immediate seat area. My information is that we will probably have to evacuate the aircraft very quickly after landing."


POSITION

Position obviously wields the authority or rank, which the particular leader holds. Such position, and its implied power, is typically legitimized by some form status, backed by either tradition or a disciplinary code. The power of a unique position creates a situation where the leader is perceived as having the legitimate right to command; with the followers having a certain obligation to obey. Such power can be delegated.

For example, "Ladies and Gentlemen, this is your Captain speaking. Please give me your attention for a few moments. I'd like to bring you up to date on the situation. However, I would first ask you to remain calm, listen carefully and follow the instructions of the flight attendants..."


PERSONALITY

The element of personal power is a function of the perceived leader's inherent qualities such as image, charm, integrity and apparent courage; as well as such traits as decisiveness and bearing. The power comes from the individual's being liked and possibly admired. For the perceived leader, those elements will determine the level of commitment and compliance.

For example, imagine a Hollywood 'macho' hero on board saying, "Come on folks, we have a job to do. I have a good feeling about this. Just remember that we're going to have to work together to get through this thing."


REWARD

The power of reward is based on the leader's ability to give his followers some tangible outcome. This can be another form of coercive power, related to gaining a tangible positive outcome, as opposed to simply avoiding a negative outcome.

For example, "Just listen carefully, follow the instructions and we'll get through this thing okay. The drinks will be on me."


HUMOR

There is also power in tasteful and appropriate humor. Imagine the situation above with the final message being, "The captain's buying the drinks, but he doesn't know it yet." Those extra words can add a small, but important, element of positive energy.


ACTION

The final decisions on appropriate action are not often easy as no one can reliably predict an outcome and the needed action, particularly in the final seconds. Often no action will be the appropriate decision. If a safe landing is accomplished out of an emergency with no remaining threat, the decision can be as simple as a PA announcing, "Stay seated, stay seated!"

In an emergency, there are no hard rules as to what action is appropriate when dealing effectively with an individual, group or crowd. While there is always the risk of hindsight judgments, in the midst of an emergency, there are no rigid right or wrong answers, only the 'best judgment,' based on the best analysis of the situation in the given time frame.


BACKGROUND

In the FAA history, there is a safety poster, which displays a tall captain looking down at a young boy. The caption reads, "Son, good pilots don't have exciting stories." While the realists typically mock the caption, it expresses an admirable and desirable idealism.

The background of an emergency is typically complex. However, there are two elements, which particularly affect flight crews, education and training. While the combination of these two terms might seem redundant, bear in mind that pertinent flight crew knowledge can independently operate in the background of the formality of the training, which focuses on habits. Education serves to prevent an emergency, training serves the extrication from the emergency, once danger appears.

'Background' can involve the extremes of formal education such as an electrical engineering degree in the background of flight training. Thus, that engineer-pilot is better equipped to deal with a potential electrical problem. The aircraft manual might cite the limitation of re-setting a circuit breaker only twice. The specialized knowledge of the engineer-pilot might recognize that the 'popped' circuit breaker is a low power 'control' circuit breaker, which protects current going to a relay which, in turn, controls a 50 amp circuit.

Background can be as simple as the recollection of a 'rumor,' or a distant account. Imagine a co-pilot saying, "Captain, if memory serves me correctly, wasn't that the same circuit breaker that supposedly started that DC-9 fire that killed 30 people?" Another example, "Remember "X," he got time off / fired for not ..."

Crew training implies that once an event occurs, the flight crews quickly identify and accept an abnormal situation as a signal that something is wrong; needing the crews' action. From that point, the crews solve the problem, via trained habits, or move on to warn others or sound an actual alarm.

Passengers also get involved in many flight emergencies, however their situation is significantly different. As with flight crews, attitude makes the difference. In the accepted role of the courteous and compliant passenger, they may tend to deny a problem exists, or look for convincing reinforcement that something is actually wrong. To protect their self-image, passengers may resist communication or action, fearing embarrassment or refuse to admit to themselves that a problem potentially or actually exists. Fear may evoke denial, numbing the passenger to inaction, even when a potential or actual emergency exists.

There might be extraneous reasons for passenger inaction. For example, if one passenger is obviously to be classed as a 'minority,' gets drunk and is approaching 'disorderly,' an observant passenger might keep silent, rather than risk the accusation of prejudice. Such a situation could ultimately lead to a very dangerous sky-rage event.

It is common for 'deadheading' or 'commuting' airline employees to be seated among the passengers, with observation skills or supplemental expertise to offer. Surprisingly, that may not make a difference. In one accidental belly-landing, three 'deadheading' crew members later said that they were sure that the landing gear wasn't down - yet said nothing.

In many accounts, individuals confess strong suspicions well in advance of the onset of the threat itself. A copilot might later confess, "I heard the circuit breaker pop. I didn't approve of the captain resetting it without looking to see what it was or allowing a 'cooling' time, but I didn't want to get him mad at me."

In another scenario, "I knew the company was trying to save on fuel. I knew the weather forecast was bad, I knew the potential for the airport going to a single runway with a shift in the wind; I didn't ask for more fuel because I didn't want to create a 'hassle' with the dispatcher or the chief pilot."

Human psychology plays a major role in emergencies; particularly in the background. Even where appropriate action is taken to prevent an emergency, the decisions often involve a requirement for multiple threats before anything is said or done. The background becomes particularly fertile for an emergency in cases where the indicators are seemingly vague and/or ambiguous. A 'local culture' may induce psychological denial in response to the fear of potential embarrassment or retribution. This could be as simple as a copilot wanting the captain's respect or as complex as a pre-existing personality clash. The denial can potentially be a "team effort." Imagine the captain saying, "If we keep demanding more fuel, we're asking to get accused of some kind of union action." In such a case, the copilot might easily go along with the decision.

In the background, there are far too many profit-driven forces, which create and drive an emergency. The obvious deadly combination is on the order of maintenance or weather problems combined with a crew-rest problem.


Let's examine some prominent examples from history -

Swiss Air 111


Swiss Air flight 111 is a complex fatal tragedy, which barely deserves the term, "accident." It never should have been an emergency, let alone a tragedy. The minute details of the event itself are not well known, but sufficient information is available to illustrate a disaster, which should never have happened for many reasons.

1. The complexity of the aircraft design itself left the probability that the minimum required crew of two pilots could become so involved with an imminent disaster that the attendance to flight control would become minimal to non-existent.

2. The personal knowledge of the pilots as to the aircraft systems was deficient by virtue of the addition of a passenger entertainment system which was directly powered from one of the aircraft main power sources, as opposed to a more remote power source which could be easily isolated or protected from a catastrophic failure. Following the disaster, the suspect systems were immediately deactivated or removed in the surviving fleet of aircraft.

3. The failure of the company-training program to consider such a possibility and give supplemental training to the pilots, which conceivably could have averted the disaster. If current indications are correct, appropriate knowledge could have led to the early deactivation of the correct electrical power source, allowing a safe landing.

4. The ignorance of the Swiss Air pilots as to the background money politics created by the U.S. White House. Those politics set the stage for the failure of safety authority. The particular document is Executive Order 12866. The Order contains a tongue-in-cheek provision that it is not intended to usurp any existing laws. While the existing safety laws were and are in full force and effect, their observance is selectively not observed; favoring corporate profits over safety.

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Alaska Flight 261

In a similar disaster, the pilots of Alaska Flight 261 were probably ignorant of the FAA regulations and the effective elements of Crew Resource Management (CRM). While a serious mechanical failure created an emergency under the FAA regulations, independently of pilot judgment, the corporate culture(identified by the media) compelled the pilots to over-fly several good airports, until the mechanical situation deteriorated; ultimately aircraft control was impossible. Basic rule 3 of CRM is, "Land as soon as possible."

On the heels of that accident, the company had two more incidents, which included very similar serious CRM failings. After the third incident, the pilot group apparently became self-educated, as the life-threatening incidents abruptly stopped. The Flight 261 disaster produced no significant changes made by either the FAA or the company.

In these incidents, one valuable and historically validated lesson had not been brought to the active attention of the pilots, "Land as soon as possible!"

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ValuJet Flight 592

A serious researcher of the VJ-592 crash will walk away bewildered. The presented 'facts' don't make sufficient sense for a responsible researcher to come to a well-defined conclusion. Too many reliable facts were left out of the official report; many of the presented 'facts' were impossible.

However, the pilots, we can be sure, did their best under the circumstances. With the benefit of 20/20 hindsight (armed with the history of subsequent similar events), the same lesson is apparent - CRM rule 3, "Land as soon as possible." While the ValuJet pilots were attempting to do just that, the reliable data indicates one tragic fact, they dutifully asked permission and for directions. The associated time factor probably made the life-death difference.

We may be certain that the VJ-592 pilots didn't and couldn't have known the magnitude of the threat they faced. It is well known that the situation quickly deteriorated with the infamous "Murphy's Law" catching the crew in many ways. The pilots had to have been totally bewildered after the first few seconds of the emergency.

In all likelihood, the pilots did not have a historical appreciation for the potential for rapid deterioration of situations involving electrical problems; or any form of fire threat aboard an aircraft. Their ignorance left them abandoned to fate.

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THE OBVIOUS QUESTION


Interestingly, in the extended background of events such as these, there was another element lurking which still has not been adequately addressed. That element being the obvious question, "If we know that when pilots quickly land, they save lives and aircraft, why is it that so many pilots still elect to continue to the extreme of a serious incident or a tragic disaster?"

In a sentence, the answer undoubtedly lies in an accountant's biased spreadsheet. While it is important to maintain corporate viability, air disasters do not justify the short-term profits, which seem to repeatedly enhance the careers of airline executives and bureaucrats. A spreadsheet simply cannot readily depict safety as an investment; it's shown only as an expense.

If it can be said in a single sentence, pilots, in general, are afraid of losing their image due to punishment, rumor and innuendo; hence they often take unnecessary risks.

Many years ago, the U.S. Air Force produced a training film called, "The Failing Aviator." The film title was designed to get the pilots' attention; it did. The film presented an almost humorous account of pilot sociology. Those who saw it never forgot it. The film portrayed the pilot fixation on their image, displacing safety in the process. It is long past time for a similar film to be presented, entitled, "The Psychology of Safety."

Amazingly, the cost of most common sense safety items can be readily recouped. If the reality were well known, the traveling public would have little trouble with the idea of their pre-paying the costs in their ticket price. The lingering question remains, "Even if the passengers pre-paid the expense, would the money be used for the needed changes, or diverted into the profit coffers?" The Pan Am Flight 103 history leaves that as a valid question.

It must also be asked, "With the money in hand, will the changes be made in time?"

Given the high probability of more airline disaster, we must be aware of the 'real time' human factors involved in an emergency.


GENERAL HUMAN BEHAVIOR

Like ocean-going passenger ships and local ferries, airliners also carry a large number of people - they are also, to a certain degree, 'crowds.' Thus, we must examine the details of crowd behavior and why crowds are not just interesting, but sometimes dangerous in their own right. It is necessary to examine the details of the human behavior models and the general ideas and the assumptions held about crowds.

Crowds earn their interest because of the potential tragedy for something dangerous or deadly happening. Most importantly, because of the potential number of victims.

In emergencies, crowds are significant because they can be either 'well behaved;' or, they can play a direct causal role, as well as an incidental role in incidents, emergencies, accidents and disasters.

The greatest concern with regard to crowds is the element of panic leading to the crushing of those slow to respond. There is also the fear that the mass of passengers can fail to properly react or communicate important instructions to others, so as to effect the desired action.

Conversely, a non-reactive sub-crowd can play an instigating role. During an aircraft evacuation, if a significant percentage of passengers decide to take their personal belongings with them, they may present an obstruction to the remainder of the evacuees, inducing a panic reaction. In reality, that is a rather common occurrence.

The direct 'crowd' role in an emergency requires knowledge, methods, systems and procedures to ensure that a crowd is unlikely to cause a disaster. The incidental role played by crowds during an emergency is a much more complex problem to deal with and manage.

Obviously, not all groups or crowds are the same. Any crowd is typically made up of individuals who have come together for a wide range of different reasons. Their attitudes, roles, actions, and reactions to any events will differ with a broad number of factors, including age, status, sex, experience and expectations.

Each setting containing a large number of people is likely to have certain aspects of crowd behavior in common with other settings. However, different factors will result in behaviors unique to each setting. The same people might behave at least slightly differently when they are on a narrow-body aircraft than on a wide-body aircraft. Their reaction in the gate area will be different than when they are seated on the aircraft.

Crowds are complex; each one is somehow different in one way or another. Despite the identifiable differences, researchers have identified a number of factors, which influence crowd behavior. Some of the factors include their upbringing, their every-day 'roles,' how they perceive themselves in relationship to other people and certainly, their expectations in a given situation. People in general have certain 'rules' associated with their personal roles - how they behave, relative to others, and what they expect, possibly demand, in return.

The key is in controlling the element of fear.

Researchers have also illuminated a number of myths held about crowds and crowd behavior.


CROWD MYTHS

The concern regarding 'mob mentality' is found in the commonly held that individuals in crowds undergo a psychological change - they mysteriously transform, coming to obey some instinctive 'unified mass mentality law'. In doing so they become somewhat irrational, childlike and primitive.

Most people have their own concept of the term, 'mob mentality.' Myth, holds that crowds become a crazy, random and unmanageable body. The fear is that crowds they are highly suggestible or anti-social; not wanting to be managed. While there is certain phenomena associated with crowd behavior, the myth of inherent mob mentality is simply not valid.

While the concern over 'mob mentality' is founded in fact, valid facts and history defy any 'laws' regarding the predictability of crowds, especially in emergencies. However, there remains the fear that if a crowd were indeed to become crazy and revert to a 'unified mass mentality law,' then under certain circumstances this would lead, almost inevitably, to lethal panic behavior. Admittedly, that sometimes happens, even on aircraft.

Managing a crowd isn't to be feared as being virtually impossible. Fortunately for flight crews, research reveals that people retain much of their individuality and that they typically abide by their every-day roles; and the constructive rules by which they normally live.

Crowds, even in emergencies, have their underlying individual pre-existing roles and their own associated rules which guide their behavior. Superimposed on these are those unique 'rules of the passenger'. That is to say that passengers generally behave exactly as 'expected.'

The mixture of personal roles and rules continues to basically guide and direct individual behavior in emergencies, just as in normal circumstances. Thus, that behavior is worth considering in more detail.


ROLES AND RULES FOR PASSENGERS

Passenger behavior is a function of a set of pre-determined 'normal' roles, whether wife, husband, mother or soldier. These roles embody the primary rules, which guide the role, itself. The combination determines the primary behavior, what the person is, or is not, expected to do; how they will probably behave. Indirectly, they define how other people are expected to behave in return. For example, a large male passenger will get a more rapid response when he says; "excuse me," than will a frail and elderly lady.

As another example, a married woman in the role of the onboard 'wife' might expect the accompanying husband to make any requests and decisions on her behalf. Should they be separated, when an emergency occurs she might stop in place, waiting for his reappearance, according to the pre-existing rules of their marriage. If he doesn't appear and if her survival needs are not recognized, she might not receive the desired guidance, thus she might remain in place, possibly as an obstruction to someone trying to make an exit.

We can therefore see that 'normal' rules and associated roles get superimposed on behaviors related to the normal range of behaviors of the 'passenger' role, even in a 'crowd.'

Passenger behavior will also be a function of their perceived role as 'passenger.' This will be, in part, be a matter of the impression of the crew and the airline. A discount carrier with dirty airplanes and an unfriendly crew will not evoke the same response as a larger 'quality' carrier. The passenger attitudes and opinions, as a group or as individuals, will significantly dictate their primary actions and interactions. Ultimately the 'confidence' factor will dictate the response to crew instructions; whether normal or in an emergency.

Managing passengers who are confident in the airline and its crew is radically different from passengers with serious doubts. A low passenger confidence factor is likely to produce a low emergency response factor. If the flight crewmembers strike passengers as unhappy, ill informed and impotent under 'normal' circumstances, the emergency scenario will likely be difficult - at best.

As a variant, the interaction of pilots and flight attendants might make the difference, if the flight attendants are seen to be backed up by the pilots. That proposition assumes an overriding faith in the pilots.

The interactive roles and rules will reasonably guide behavior in an emergency, just as in normal every-day life. In their own manner, people will attempt to assess the reality, and then make decisions as to what to do. People will do this in the light of a number of things, including how they view the airline and it's staff.

Within a complex situation there are many who have the unexpected potential to influence the behavior of other people. In another disaster scene, the legend of the Titanic's "Unsinkable Molly Brown" is an example of passenger perception. An aggressive but sensible passenger took effective charge; out-performing a ship's crewman.

It is far more productive to think of crowds in ordered terms, as opposed to allowing one's expected probability to shift to the extreme notion (fear) that a group of passengers would automatically react in the fashion of an open-air crowd, transforming into an uncontrollable mob, liable to blind panic. Instead, attention should be focused on the important issues related to the more probable movement of people once an emergency is underway - inspired and directed by the trained crisis leadership of the crew. Regardless of its source, such leadership is critical to safety.

Similarly, it must be asked, "What are the normal operational roles of the crew, and what is their influence on passenger behavior as an emergency develops?"


ROLES AND RULES FOR CREWMEMBERS

The crewmembers also have their own roles and related rules on the aircraft, which guide their behavior. The 'human' behavioral rules are also directed by corporate mandates in the form of policies, procedures and cockpit checklists. The crews' response is well practiced under normal operating circumstances and an unfortunately limited number of emergency drills.

Actual emergency situations are different. While these events are rare, the associated special roles and rules, which govern crew behavior under these circumstances, are typically not well practiced as an integrated crew. The obvious threat in that fact still lingers, for lack of meaningful change by the industry.

The more obvious question asks, "How easy it is to switch from the 'normal' mode to the 'emergency' mode?"

Evidence from available histories suggests that it is far more difficult than we care to think about. Basically, during an aircraft emergency, some people will continue to act in terms of the role they occupy under normal circumstances, as opposed to immediately reverting to an 'emergency' mentality and role, with an appropriate and effective response, even trained crewmembers.

With the announcement of an emergency, a flight attendant may briefly continue an unimportant but routine duty. A pilot may find a diversion in an otherwise routine cockpit duty or fail to recognize the demand for an instant and/or desperate response. Any delay, however brief, can potentially be costly.

The tendency to stay in the safety illusion of the 'normal' role can be so powerful that in extreme cases people will continue to ignore obvious warnings that there may be a potentially disastrous situation rapidly developing. Likewise, communication might be hindered or prevented by the related psychological denial mechanism.

Currently, the typical social/professional compartmentalization of the pilots and flight attendants doesn't lend itself to integrated teamwork. One of the more entertaining airline stories told is that of the pilots being interrupted after takeoff by a passenger banging on the cockpit door, wanting a cup of coffee, as the flight attendants had been left behind. Surprisingly, that has happened more than once.

Often, an examination of ditching training reveals that the pilots have no appreciable idea as to how to inflate and set up a life raft or manage the survival resources. Thus, pilots are often left to delegate authority to the flight attendants - in the best circumstances.

There is the distinct probability of the pilots being seriously injured, trapped or killed in the cockpit in an accident. Thus the flight attendants may be 'on their own.' Interestingly, the flight attendants are typically trained to be autonomous, toward that end, and will experience difficulty responding to pilot instructions after the initial accident. In perverse airline humor, it is commonly remarked that, "Pilots are the first to arrive at the scene of an accident."

Often, flying incidents and accidents involve fire. The human response to fire is typically on the borderline of panic. Thus, crewmembers are faced with ensuring passenger safety; putting their own safety in second place. Ideally the opportunity will allow all to escape.

The traumatic nature of an accident can quickly sway anyone's decision-making and response; crews are no different. Particularly in the cockpit, head injuries are likely, with unpredictable and confusing results.

One of the fears of pilots is that the flight attendant autonomy - due to the status, authority, economic and gender differences - will result in the pilots being abandoned in an evacuation. History proves that fear to be valid.

Flight attendants have a clearly defined 'normal' role. It's possible that they might call the cockpit for assistance, rather than closely investigate a smoke source as a potential fire; such an investigation being outside their perceived 'normal' role. In the meantime, the fire could be actual and growing rapidly. If it is their habit to personally visit the cockpit, the flight attendants may walk to the cockpit to make the request for assistance, costing precious time.

In the normal passenger cabin protocol, a flight attendant may insist on only reporting safety concerns to the 'lead' flight attendant, not following through to make sure the message actually gets to the cockpit, even though a clear threat was perceived. Worse, when the flight attendant is satisfied that nothing is being done; he/she might not follow up with an independent interphone call to insist that a needed response is given.

In many cases, a failure to follow up may be a function of the flight attendant sociology. A domineering senior flight attendant may insist on total control of the passenger cabin. With sufficient fear being generated, that local protocol may be observed to the endangerment of all on board.

The timing of an event can have a significant effect on the outcome. If flight attendants are focused on a demanding task, in order to get them to deviate from their 'normal' role, they might require detailed, passionate and/or persistent input from a passenger to be persuaded that something is actually wrong.

In many cases, people will readily switch into their emergency roles. However, the power of their normal roles can still exert an influence. For example, a flight attendant may attend to the needs of 'her' passenger section, ignoring the plight of others in a different section, out of habit.

The effect of the pilots' routine roles also contains the inertia to extend into their response in emergencies - even if this is potentially damaging. For example deferring to a flight attendant's assigned role, as opposed to intervening by personally directing a passenger to safety. This is especially true if they do not have the benefit of proper and adequate integrated crew training.

A major difference between passengers and the flight crew is that, passengers need to be informed as to their roles in an emergency, whereas the crew must be very clear as to theirs; in normal and emergency situations. Flight crews are assigned the safety obligations and expectations, reinforced by accountability.

Ideally the crew professional training and responsibility contains a well-defined and effective breakdown of duties. Only then can the crew be certain as to which role and associated set of rules to adopt when coping with the realities of passenger management during an emergency.


PASSENGER MANAGEMENT

No two groups of passengers are exactly the same, even if they appear to have come together for similar purposes. Charter flights are not particularly different from public flights. In spite of certain expected variables, a number of common problems have been identified, with respect to passengers.


COMMUNICATION

With large numbers of passengers, some forms of communication become retarded, becoming increasingly difficult as the numbers increase. Simply stated, there are more people to effectively communicate with, in the same time span.

Large groups of people diffuse communication, potentially with the result that those receiving important information may not be in a position to act on it. For example, in a panic evacuation, instructions given to those who are being crushed at the front of the line may not be able to comply with the necessary instructions from the passengers/crew at the back who are causing the problem, in their rush to exit.


MOVEMENT

Larger numbers of people magnify the degree of inertia. More time is required to get large numbers of people to begin the required preparations and move toward safety.

Similarly, large numbers demand more time to stop moving and / or to change direction. This is the same syndrome as the classic 'rush hour' highway traffic, moving in the fashion of an accordion.


DISTRACTION

Despite the obvious assumption that emergency warnings will focus passenger attention to a maximum, there may be serious distractions such as indications that the situation is about to evolve from a warning environment to the onset of the actual emergency. Simply stated, fear will block the reception of vitally important information.

There can also be 'in-house' distractions such as hysteria or an angry over-reaction. One of the biggest distractions will be the leap to personal cell phones to call loved ones, the company or the media. That particular tendency is likely to be not only uncontrollable, but possibly dangerous, as cell phone signals are known to generate signals of sufficient power to interfere with navigation and warning systems. (Another 'plausible denial' matter.)


RESPONSIBILITY

A large number of people are susceptible to confusion and uncertainty as to who has the responsibility for decision-making. The associated confusion and uncertainty regarding responsibility will retard movement still further.

Once an emergency is in progress, details become vague, while interactions become more complicated. Often, passengers and crew may have to respond in ways which are unique, or beyond any behavior standard they have previously imagined or experienced. Their desired behavior, particularly their willingness to follow crew instructions, may depend to a large extent on how confident they are that the crew can actually cope with the situation.

It is elementary that in order for the flight crew to cope with an emergency, the everyday operation needs to be efficient and effective. A crew, which does not inherently function well in normal operations, will probably function even worse in an emergency. It is reasonable that passengers will entertain that same suspicion.

In situations containing role ambiguity, new and effective teamwork will not likely appear. If communication lines are normally poor they will probably continue to be poor. If the required normal roles and responsibilities are not well defined, they can be expected to continue in a similar form, in an emergency. Under such circumstances, any patterns of confusion experienced by passengers and crew can only be reasonably expected to intensify.

The complexity of role interaction, with the guidance provided by procedures for passenger control should take the major issues into account.

The instructions, help and advice given to groups should consider the mix of passengers. The selection of 'able-bodied-assistants' should be made to enhance the safe outcome. The competent management of passengers will have a dramatic impact on people's behavior and the final outcome of an emergency.

The roles and responsibilities of the pilots and cabin crew need to be well defined in advance, understood and accepted. Whenever possible, the individual's responsibility in an emergency should be reasonably consistent and compatible with the roles they normally carry out.

The visibility and importance of authority figures should never be underestimated. The passengers receiving instructions from the crew need, and are entitled to, confidence in the crewmembers.

The early stage of an emergency is crucial. Without constant guidance and updating or reinforcement, people will get mentally and emotionally 'lost' in the interim time, questioning whether something unusual or actually threatening is happening. The 'inertia' effect of large numbers of people, and the inherent difficulty in communicating with them, the quality and thoroughness of early information is vital to the outcome. The passengers need all reasonable assurances as to their safety.

All communications should contain sufficient, detailed and obviously useful information to enable people to make a personal commitment as to what to do, at the appropriate time. That might be as simple as patiently waiting for the stairways and buses on the ramp. Most importantly, if an evacuation is necessary, they need to know the magnitude of urgency, how rapidly and by which route they need to exit, along with a contingency plan if things don't go as expected.

In unique circumstances, it may also become prudent to illustrate the cockpit as a viable or primary exit route.


THE HUMAN ROLE IN EMERGENCIES

WARNING PHASE

Borrowing from an old philosophy of the Strategic Air Command, to achieve the ultimate goal of aviation safety, it is prudent to rely on the idea that accidents are always caused by human beings. While exceptions exist, they are rare. By always thinking in terms of accidents being caused, they can best be anticipated and prevented.

Awareness is the primary element in the warning phase. The awareness, born of professional knowledge, that a pre-existing condition poses a threat, is the most crucial element, as disaster is most easily prevented at the beginning of the operation.

Beyond awareness of the status quo, recognition of the significance of any actual or probable changes (such as the weather), requires awareness to assess the significance of such information.

Some emergencies develop quickly, totally overwhelming those involved, giving the victims little chance to save themselves, cry for help or issue warnings to others. Other emergencies, however, develop over longer periods of time, with those responsible for the safety of others having more than adequate opportunity to issue a warning.

Warnings are inherently intended reduce the possibility of threat and/or harm to others. Long-term warnings serve to prevent disaster from striking unexpectedly, allowing potential victims to take any necessary or possible actions to prevent or minimize any consequences. In the aviation environment, the concern is expressed in terms of "...persons or property." Even with adequate time, alerting those who are potentially at risk can be difficult.

Such difficulty can be simply an inability to communicate with the affected people. The most daunting situations involve warnings, which meet the barrier of ignorance, or the conscious unwillingness to communicate warnings, or even to communicate information, which can act as a resource for the formulation of warnings.

Emergencies are normally either historical or evolutionary. Earthquakes are typical of the historical type. We can be certain that they will occur, we can't predict their exact location, time or magnitude. Historical emergencies are commonly referred to as "acts of God."

Evolutionary emergencies typically have the hand of mankind involved. The "Great San Francisco Fire" is an example. The fire began as a major earthquake. However, earthquakes were bad for business, so history only seems to focus on the resulting fire. Hence sufficient business was subsequently drawn to San Francisco in the earthquake aftermath to rebuild the city. Today, the local residents are still faced with the uncertainty of the historically reliable event of catastrophic earthquakes. Yet, the victims-in-waiting are on location as volunteers. History has yielded sufficient lessons to create planned emergency responses, reinforced by actual drills.

In aviation, emergencies are quite similar to actual accidents; their origins typically exist prior to the crew approaching the aircraft itself.

If a well-qualified crew can be certain that they have a good aircraft, good weather and sufficient fuel; the program for a safe flight is set. That's the intended scenario; the threat enters when any of those (or other pertinent factors) are changed. Again, the awareness of the status quo, threat probability and accountability make the difference.

Normally the human factor is the weak link. Aircraft are normally well designed; crews are required to be well qualified, sufficient fuel is mandated by regulation. Airports are required to meet certification requirements.

Then something changes, with human beings abruptly making local life-death decisions. The tragedy is that most such occurrences are profit driven.

The human element is also the difference whether or not the disaster chain of events gets broken to totally diffuse a threat. God bless the pilot who maintains, "I'm like Woody Allen, death doesn't bother ME; I just don't want to be there when it happens."

Dynamic (as opposed to 'potential') emergencies are normally evolutionary, with four phases:

* Warning

* Onset

* Reaction

* Aftermath


WARNINGS

Recognition is the key element of an emergency. Recognition can be the historic identification of a similar circumstance, a change in the status quo with a reflexive question or the brief illumination of an annunciator warning light. Following the most subtle warning, the response makes the difference. It can be an innocuous question, "Did you see an annunciator light flash?" The other pilot may have seen it also. If not, awareness is heightened. A change in the sound of airflow can warn of the inadvertent and imminent penetration of a line of thunderstorms, which was not forecast or detected in time.

Human psychology again plays a key role in the warning phase. Even when individuals accept the fact that something is amiss, they can be mysteriously reluctant to address the matter, themselves. The reasonings range from raw denial to fear of embarrassment or even harassment.

Often, a personal history may play a key role in the warning phase to either aggressively address the situation, or to allow it to evolve. Imagine the thought process, "The last time I told a copilot I thought he looked too tired to fly, I was accused of implying that he was actually drunk. I'm not going to risk that again. I've seen tired copilots before. We'll make it, just fine."

Irrational fear of repercussions can be a deterrent in the warning phase. Following a disaster, statements are commonly heard to the effect of, "I just didn't want to be the first one to say something." On a more local level is a similar fear concerning being the first couple on the dance floor. However irrational, such reactions are sufficiently historic to make them reasonably predictable. Fear-based reactions can be expected of pilots, flight attendants, ground staff and passengers.

Imagine a captain's frustration when a flight attendant says, "The other two girls also think the passenger is getting too drunk. Would you mind saying something to him?" Group denial manufactured a safety threat - now the captain is 'put on the spot.'

Valid fear serves as a healthy warning. This form of fear could range from mistrust in the weather forecast, known fatigue, aircraft condition, etc.

Denial can play a deadly role with respect to the time requirement of the situation. Many a flight deck crew has been dismayed that a flight attendant would walk to the cockpit to personally report a serious condition, with the interphone readily available.

Another element is the crew confidence factor. Flight attendants often confess a serious problem uniquely being dealt with by flight attendants, because they didn't trust the cockpit to 'get involved.'

In sardonic humor, the story is told of a flight attendant who told a surprised captain after the first landing of a three-day trip, "Boy, this is obviously going to be a long trip. We used all three fire bottles on that trash-can fire." The FAA inspector on the jump seat beat the captain by asking, "Did you think to mention it to the captain while it was still going on?" Three flight attendants were reported to have been appropriately fired. Unfortunately, the issue is not reported to have been investigated in terms of WHY they didn't they call the cockpit. Hence, the confidence factor still ranks highly among disaster precursors.

In another instance, the aircraft was accidentally taken off course, past the destination city by ATC. While the passenger map display clearly indicated that the aircraft had passed the intended destination and was obviously off its intended course, the flight attendants said nothing. Only the pilots were unaware of their actual situation.


EMERGENCY ONSET

Once an emergency is in progress, three elements play a role. The first is the magnitude of threat, with an associated probability of disaster. The second is the compounding of events to potentially guarantee disaster. The third element is composed of the resources to extricate those involved from the emergency.


RESPONSE

When a situation is clearly an the emergency, the people involved may react in denial, reluctant to accept or communicate the fact that a threat actually exists. Someone responsible might detect the threat, but keep silent to protect their job. The initial response can dangerously slow. The underlying reasons for such a reaction are usually discovered to be complex, many and also varied. The response to threat is most often deeply ingrained in either the individual or the culture, whether it is trade, corporate sociology or even gender based. Such factors typically exist in the core of the individuals everyday life, but certainly before the flight begins. For example, a mechanic might dismiss a captain's concern over a mechanical issue, discounting the complaint in the light of, "another crybaby pilot."

There are also those, for example, who automatically accept risk as an expected element. These individuals are often the potential crisis-recovery leaders. This group of individuals often accepts the element of risk on the assumption that everyone else appears to accept it. The risk then takes on the aura of being 'acceptable.' Obviously, that can be unhealthy, to an extreme.

Often such individuals are mentally and emotionally well prepared for any crisis. Typically, these people have a family history which leaves them so well prepared to accept and deal with crisis, that they give little thought to danger, without evaluating the risk potential in each flight situation. These individuals also carry the liability of being too willing to accept instigating factors, which later lead to a problem, such as an intoxicated passenger, for example. Risk tolerance is typical of those with a military background.

Another group of individuals, however, may be pre-disposed to deny that either risk or an actual threat exists. Such denial is often a very powerful sub-conscious psychological mechanism, which can be extremely difficult to overcome. The attitudes expressed by such individuals can have a negative 'contagious' effect, adversely swaying the concerns of those whom might otherwise be predisposed to threat alertness.

The magnitude of such denial can also express itself in a counter-productive 'salesmanship,' during a crisis. The strength of the associated statements can be inherently dangerous. A smoke alarm might induce a flight attendant to assert, "Don't worry about it, it's probably somebody smoking 'pot' in the lav. I've seen this before." As a consequence, a critical response with an accompanying call to the cockpit is delayed.

The combination of acceptance and denial can create serious problems for the pilots and the entire crew. Passengers again play a key role. For example, during a normal flight, some passengers might study the safety cards, listen to the safety briefing 'rules' and in general, pay attention to any printed notices.

Conversely another group of passengers methodically might not. (Studies suggest that approximately 50% don't study the safety cards to any degree.) Neither of the groups may be particularly motivated in their personality 'style.' One group may have simply accepted the risks involved with something of a passing interest in them, while the second group desperately doesn't care to be advised or reminded of the risks.

Should it come to an actual emergency, the risk-accepting group may be quicker to identify problems, taking any warnings seriously, while also being well prepared to appropriately act. Conversely, the second group may have prepared themselves to deny any risk and be subsequently slower to react, endangering themselves and others.


ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTING FACTORS

Whether one cares to discuss crew or passengers, the underlying factors influencing their behavior MUST be considered. In general, the first reaction to a warning is statistically often not the desired reaction, rather a defensive avoidance of the possibility of threat. The individual typically generates a disbelief which interferes with the requirement for action. When that happens, appropriate decisions often get transferred to others.

Add the psychological denial of danger to the fear of embarrassment. If the individual is at risk of being seen to over-react, the combination can easily result in the conversion of a problem into an emergency; brewing a disaster. Such is the particular risk if any warnings are in any way unclear, ambiguous or perceived to be so. Regardless of the influencing factors, a mistaken belief in the magnitude of the situation can be very deadly.

When a warning is perceived in its true sense, the outcome of a situation will depend on a list of factors. Will the situation be perceived as to its magnitude? Is the warning clear as to its exact nature? Will appropriate action be taken? These questions depend on several factors -


CREDIBILITY

Any obvious signs of authenticity, authority, as well as any known experience and/or expertise, will lend credibility to a warning. Crewmembers and passengers are likely to believe someone who is normally expected to have the best information on the situation. Ground staff is to be included in this concept.


COMMUNICATION AND CONTENT

The actual delivery, the means and tone by which the message is delivered, to whom and by whom are important factors. Any authority gives a message the element of credibility; ambiguity must be avoided, so as to preclude confusion and / or denial. In one disaster, the junior flight attendant delivered the message that they had smoke in the lavatory to the copilot. The message should have been delivered to the captain, describing "billowing" smoke.


AGE DIFFERENCE

Young people are often more likely to quickly respond to warnings than their older counterparts. Older people often take past experiences as an 'immortality license,' being more confident in all situations and less willing to react quickly. That statement should not be taken in the fashion of discounting age and experience. A young, freshly trained pilot might be willing to quickly shut down an engine - 'per the book.' The older pilot might delay such a situation, saying, "It's not on fire and it's packing it's own weight." Hence, age related experience can pays a significant dividend.


LOCAL SOCIOLOGY

'Isolated' individuals or even those working with peers or work groups containing an acceptance-approval social 'mechanism' may be slower to react to warnings and be less likely to illuminate danger. For example, a single female working with two male flight attendants.


FAMILY / FRIENDS

Overall, families and groups of friends tend to heed warnings and take situations more seriously. Out of habit, they tend to be more trusting, stay together; looking out for each other's interest, while being more willing to rely on each other for appropriate advice.


PERSONAL OBSERVATIONS

People tend to observe others, interpreting others' response as an indicator as to the exact nature and seriousness of the current reality. One can imagine the effect of an obviously frightened captain,


LOCATION AND FAMILIARITY

In familiar locations and situations, people tend to better interpret warnings. In unfamiliar locations or in unusual circumstances, it may be more difficult to get individuals to accept the seriousness of the warning and get them prepared to act; 'denial' re-enters.


TIMING OF THE WARNING

At night it is more difficult to heighten awareness and to effect a physical response. As a consequence, greater voice volume, stronger wording and emphasis might be required in such circumstances.


INDIVIDUAL EXPERIENCE / CONVICTION

Whether crew or passengers, the 'adaptive' response - people immediately heeding warnings - is increased with either personal knowledge or a known history of a recent or similar emergency; certainly personal experience will contribute to such a situation.


SUPPORTING INFORMATION

People, in general, usually seek more information to support their individual perception; whether with the intent of either recognition or denial. Valid and supporting information typically effects sensible responses during the warning stage of an emergency.


DECISION MAKING FACTORS

Reaction to events is normally based on the individual's faith in the presented information. There is the inherent risk that an individual could irrationally decide that since emergencies are rare, there isn't one. A correct diagnosis requires a combination of indicators to aid the decision-making process.


WARNING STYLE

The direct warning conveyance, such as a cockpit warning light or the odor of acrid smoke in the cabin will produce a decided conclusion. A radio warning, such as a known in-flight threat received from the ground staff will likely be taken very seriously.


RESPONSE OF OTHERS

People will look to the response of other people for a personal cue. If a crewmember is not taking the information seriously, the passengers not likely do so. Conversely, a frightened reaction with supporting information may induce over-reaction.


SPECIFIC MESSAGE AND STYLE

If a clear and serious message is delivered with conviction, but with a calming style; others will appropriately respond. If a captain advises the crew, "Dispatch just sent us a weather update. We have terrific headwinds ahead, so we'll do a short divert and get more fuel," the crew is likely to respond in a calm manner.


CONSENSUS

Passenger reaction is also a major consideration. People will process whatever information is given by the crew. Passengers tend to do this in small groups, especially family, peer groups or individuals of identifiable equal social status. With the message above, a family group may set the overall mood with a loud response such as, "Well, at least we'll still make happy-hour!"


PRESENCE OR APPEARANCE OF CREW

The unexpected presence of a pilot or a clear authority figure will modify passengers' views of the current situation. For example, a flight attendant's request for assistance of a deadheading captain or a uniformed serviceman will lend credibility to the situation's seriousness.


UNEXPECTED CHANGES

Even if the changes are not directly related to the emergency, any unexpected changes, such as a significant course change or a significant change in engine power will have a direct influence on the cabin crew and passengers.


PHYSICAL INDICATORS / EVIDENCE

Crew or passengers will be alert for noise, radical aircraft motion, smoke and heat. Surprisingly, smoke alone is often taken as an ambiguous warning, especially if it is light colored or low in odor. Crew and passengers may fail to respond if presented with only one indicator.


CREW INSTRUCTIONS

The physical presence of crewmembers issuing guidance and directions prompts most people to take warnings seriously. This includes crewmembers themselves. If the instructions appear to originate from an established safety procedure or drill, they will likely receive due attention.


RESISTANCE TO REALITY

Despite multiple indicators, there are those who can persist in their denial for extended periods of time, refusing to believe that a situation is, in fact, serious.

Researchers have used historic disaster models to derive a rudimentary mathematical probability of group response. Researchers have attempted to get an idea as to what percentage of involved people might readily accept the idea or fact that something is wrong, as opposed to how many might deny it. While it is impossible to make accurate predictions, the result was a least one 'acceptance model' which attempts to predict peoples' reactions to the first signs of crisis.

According to one such behavioral model:

* 10% of the group might immediately accept the reality of danger, while mentally and emotionally preparing to take action.

* 30% might be doubtful; possibly curious, and investigate the situation further.

* 60% might deny, ignore or even neglect highly obvious warning signals!


Thus, the clear mandate is for early and effective warnings and leadership.


MAXIMIZING WARNINGS

Logic aside, it is a serious mistake to assume that warnings are clear. In the case of PA deliveries, it should not be assumed that everyone has heard and understood previous announcements and are certain how to react. Warnings and instructions should be given by the appropriate crewmember as soon as the emergency information becomes specific. Whether the instructions are intended for crew or passengers, the instructions should be followed. Later, these will need reinforcement.

The pertinent instructions should be made by those perceived as being in authority, trustworthy, and in a manner which inspires confidence. They should also be specific in their content, containing pertinent information known to be, or likely to be, accurate and reliable.


The instructions should also:

* Clearly define what is to be expected and when events will occur.

* Neither under-estimate nor over-estimate the threat.

* Give the appropriate courses of action, citing their appropriateness and intended outcome.

* Be made on as personal a level as possible.

* Be in terminology and in the language understandable to the recipients.

* Be repeated as frequently as possible with short periods in between, so as to reinforce the required response.

* Never refer to similar or familiar events.

* Not include unnecessary, distracting or other unrelated information, delivered in any lapses between updates.

* Most importantly, effect acceptance of the situation and create appropriate crew and passenger commitment to action.


In the background of communication is an industry social norm that the cockpit is typically not advised of a failed or extremely low PA volume made by the pilots. Often, flight attendants simply place no value in the routine cockpit "welcome aboard" PA. As a consequence of the apathy toward the cockpit, the value of the cockpit PA capability in an emergency is overlooked. Thus, crew awareness must be maintained as to the PA effectiveness, with the mandate that an appropriate advisory is made to the cockpit. Conversely, the pilots should solicit information as to the adequacy of the cockpit PA.

The safety PAs from the cockpit should be 'dedicated,' so that there are no interruptions by unnecessary distractions, such as normal ATC communication.

If the warning phase becomes prolonged, without updated information, guidance and instruction, the crew or passengers may develop a high level of uncertainty and possibly a dangerous level of anxiety. At one extreme, there will be those who patiently wait, while mentally and emotionally preparing themselves. That group also presents the possibility of badly delayed action or inaction in the end. At the other extreme, uncertainty, tension and fear may increase to a dangerous level, causing individual anxiety or panic.

Safety demands early, accurate and clear information, with regard to crew and passengers. Quality information dictates the success of each phase of an emergency, if the information is provided in an effective manner.

Despite the known data pertaining to effective management of personnel, it is an unfortunate fact of life that emergency procedures prescribed by some cultures and organizations (such as corporations) prefer to delay warnings, thus creating an independant problem. The concern is obviously PR and panic avoidance; however, it must be acknowledged that surprise warnings are famous for producing the unwanted panic.


EMERGENCY ONSET

RESPONSE

The onset phase of an emergency implies that the warning signs, alerts and alarms have been seen, heard and accepted; it is clearly understood that the threat is real. The term 'onset' can mean either the realization that an emergency situation really exists or the actual immediate time frame when the disaster strikes. In addition to the peaked urgency and requirement for immediate action by the passengers and crew, the onset can also bring immediate injury or death. For example an uncontained engine failure can hurl fan blades into the passenger cabin, causing serious injuries and damage; while marking the beginning of an extended emergency, as a consequence. The onset period may not have any significant warning and last only seconds. Perhaps it is the ideal 'planned emergency,' lasting from warning to onset as much as an hour or more.

During the onset phase, people must recognize and accept the nature and magnitude of the threat, acting appropriately if a potential disaster is to be averted. If there is a prolonged waiting period, the time interval can be a very difficult task for people to deal with.

As an example, a crash or relatively simple emergency landing evolving into an external fire might result in a delayed evacuation. A wind condition might blow smoke on one side of the aircraft, creating the illusion that the fire is on the same side, when in fact the smoky side is the only viable escape route. Until the actual threat is ascertained, waiting might be the only acceptable option.

However short or long the onset period lasts, the most valuable time is often lost in this phase. Even when people have accepted the urgency of an emergency in progress, there is a certain risk that they might resist an appropriate course of action. The wind/smoke scenario is such an example. Being directed to evacuate into the smoke may create a panicked response, leading to the wrong reaction (delay), ultimately leading to a disaster.

The onset phase, along with the warning phase, requires the passengers and crew to accurately detect changes, collect any relevant information, interpret that information and evaluate it, so as to make decisions. Individual perceptions may result in the same information and warnings yielding convoluted understandings of the situation. Hence the individual's responses may differ once they have actually accepted the warnings.

The human response will be strongly influenced by the subjective interpretation of the situation. The response during an imminent disaster will be dictated by the actual ability or perception of the passengers' and crew's ability to cope with the immediate demands placed upon them, and upon those close to them. With time available, support and assistance of ground staff is likewise a factor.


EMOTIONAL EXPERIENCE

The onset period, however brief, is the juncture of the physical and psychological aspects of the emergency. Here, the magnitude and urgency of the reality is discovered. In extremes, imminent threat or an actual catastrophic event will cause individuals to experience a broad range of emotions and subsequent reactions.


The Emotions include:

* The effect of shock and a sense of total helplessness. This could be the dominating effect - regardless of whether or not there has been any significant period of anticipation and any preparedness.

* A reaction of numbness, a sense of unreality - accompanied by fear - with the result that the individual or group is easily influenced, even to take highly inappropriate action.

* Confusion from a lack of meaningful understanding as to the cause of the emotional and physical upheaval in their immediate environment. In turn, this can interfere with their attempts to identify, interpret and understand what is actually happening.

* Sense of 'injustice.'

* A 'flattening' of emotions, in an attempt to protect themselves against any more emotional stimulation (overload), further decreasing their willingness or ability to appropriately respond.

* A sense of lethargy as the passengers or crew come to believe or feel that there is little, if anything, they can do to improve their situation.

* An illusion of 'isolation / abandonment,' causing individuals to behave as if they are the only ones affected by the events. How they perceive the situation and how they react can inevitably cause the individual to become very focused on themselves, to the exclusion of the welfare of others. Such individuals can become a threat to others. A common image is the panicked person in the water, using another individual as a piece of driftwood, potentially drowning them, in order to ensure their own survival.

* An overpowering awareness of their frailty, against the sudden and dramatic impact of massive physical forces which may remove their sense of personal control, thus dominating their sensory perception - often with panic resulting.


To indulge in greater detail, the emotional experiences and reactions have been studied in-depth. Various studies have divided reactions into five basic categories:


INCREASED EXCITEMENT

An increased excitement and the associated focus lead to extremes of thoughts. Feelings and fears of dying may become intense.

The element of survival may become an intense focus with the affected individuals concentrating on their personal and family protection.

An intense concern for those for whom the individual has, or assumes, a primary responsibility may often surpass the individual's self-concern, particularly if the bonds are intense or a self-imposed responsibility exists. For example, a passenger electing to assume responsibility for an unaccompanied child or an elderly person.

In most cases, people often manage to gain control of their fears, so that they seem to assist the survival of others - a welcome fact to be put to good use by those tasked with managing them.


FEAR - Defined

Fear should be expected to be the dominant, rational and an appropriate response to any emergency situation.

Whether rational or unrealistic, fear produces a racing heart, dry mouth and a narrowing of attention. These are automatic reactions and a necessary part of the stress response in preparation for the classic 'fight or flight' decision / action.

Often, the individual experiences irrational fears, consciously and subconsciously. These become superimposed on realistic fears. These fears produces the expectation of loss, injury, suffering and death. The human mind will emotionally cycle during a crisis. It is very difficult to estimate the frequency of the emotional cycles containing fear. Survival produces predictable emotional self-protection reactions. A typical reaction is that people experience the irrational element of shame, consequently denying the natural emotions. Physical or mental activities, of any kind, help to combat irrational fears.

With proper leadership, the element of fear can be significantly controlled by the accurate portrayal of the reality.


SENSE OF HELPLESSNESS

A person may be confronted by their own ineffectiveness, experiencing a sense of vulnerability or possibly frailty. This is especially true if the emergency contains obvious powerful forces, producing that fear. Often that reaction comes from a previous life-threatening experience.

Fear naturally leads to a sense of helplessness. Without an apparent and viable solution, the fear can feed upon itself in a vicious cycle producing a high level of anxiety, potentially to a debilitating degree.

The feelings of helplessness evoke a subconscious control mechanism, triggering the irrational element of shame. Subconsciously the potential victim attempts to understand or gain control of the situation. It's likely that the elements of frustration and anger/rage will be directed toward other passengers and the crew - but the underlying feeling of helplessness can be expected to dominate.

The sense of helplessness will be compounded if the suspicion of physical entrapment is probable as an eventual reality. Often, survival is irrationally assumed to be unlikely. Consequently, reassurance from the crew is essential to the degree that it is a vital factor in combating the fear syndrome. The needed message is, "You are not helpless, your assistance will be needed. We will be out of this situation soon." The passenger - even the crew - needs the sense of empowerment.


SENSE OF ABANDONMENT

In emergencies, all 'normal' or 'reasonable' certainties may seem to vanish. The key element will be the existing feelings of trust, based on any previously held trust of the company, aircraft and the crew.

Anyone who senses themselves as being isolated - rationally or irrationally - will likely experience the feeling of alienation and loneliness. Often this is fed by previous experiences and historical feelings of abandonment in those events. There may be a subconscious argument to the effect of, "It's happening again!" Familiar assumptions can be expected to produce familiar emotions.

The sense of abandonment can be a powerful and dangerous element in an emergency. The result being that the sense of abandonment compounds any other feelings of helplessness.

Children separated from their parents, particularly the unaccompanied minor, are likely to be strongly affected by the missing familiar protective influence. They can be expected to fear abandonment. If possible, they need to be reunited with a family member at the earliest possible opportunity. In the case of the unaccompanied minor, a surrogate parent will be needed, whether a flight attendant or a passenger.


SHAME

In human psychology, the element of 'shame' plays an intriguing role. A self-imposed subconscious arguments assert such positions as, "I should have done X. I didn't; so therefore, I'm being punished."

To be brief, the irrational subconscious argument is essentially two-fold:

1. "I know I deserve this; therefore I can accept it." - illusion of acceptance

2. "I'm responsible for this, so if I do better, this will change." - illusion of control


The important factor being that acceptance of a threatening situation won't provide any positive outcome. Those who decide to "...go down fighting to the bitter end.." are obviously the individuals needed in an emergency.


DESPERATION FOR RELIEF

The desperation will likely be intense, normally growing with the duration of the emergency. Survival instinct will focus on the desired relief / rescue / safety in the manner of a preoccupation. The associated thoughts and yearnings will often revolve around feelings of guilt, possibly remorse. Many people focus their thoughts on lost opportunities, ranging from adventures to saying "goodbye" or "I love you" to their family.

A highly typical human response is a reappraisal of personal values and realigned intentions for their future. Most are familiar with this focus, whether from personal experience or the theme of a Hollywood movie.

The desperation factor also carries the risk of passengers deciding to 'self-medicate' with alcohol or, possibly, drugs.

If an emergency is prolonged, the majority of the passengers and crew will maintain their focus on an escape from the danger or being rescued. In the human experience, some may become overwhelmed by the anxiety and give up, wishing for death, as an escape. Thus, it is vitally important that effective reassurance be given that the action being taken is appropriate, complete and that it will be successful.

Depending on the complexity and severity of the event, the material above is focused on the passenger experience. However, of vital importance is the expected experience of the crew?


CREW EXPERIENCE

The crew experiences will be different. In the acceptance of their job, the crew will have assessed the risks to a high degree and will have been specifically trained to deal with them. In a sentence, the crew will have a certain degree of expectation of emergencies actually occuring; being better prepared, mentally and emotionally, for an emergency.

Actual reports from crewmembers vary, but often have common statements or 'themes.' What is clear is that crewmembers also experience a traumatic mental and emotional struggle. The following statements are relatively common and serve as a good descriptor of the trauma in an emergency:

"'I just couldn't think; my mind seemed to go blank."
"Someone had to remind me what to do next."
"'I had difficulty catching my breath. There were moments that I had to tell myself to breathe."
"I couldn't remember where I was. I kept forgetting what I was supposed to do next."
"'I felt as though we were suspended in time."
"I just kept thinking about my family."


Such examples indicate not only the rising stress levels, but also their impairing effect on the ability of the crew to properly function. The required effectiveness of the crew can equally be in danger of being undermined by stress.


ANXIETY, STRESS & RESPONSE

Breaks in any normal routines and expectations, particularly those directly conflicting or unusual circumstances, produce some degree of stress; imagine even a minor degree of road-rage. In an emergency, the magnitude of stress that crew members experience, and whether it will have either positive or negative effects, will partly be a function of the conviction each individual maintains as to how serious they perceive the emergency being, or is probable to become.

A key element is the crewmember's conviction as to their personal ability to meet the demands of the emergency. Equally important is the crewmember's conviction as to the crews' collective ability to deal with the emergency. There is the risk that if the individual crewmember becomes convinced that the demands are too great, and / or the crews ability to cope is inadequate, the stress levels can reach an overwhelming magnitude, even if only temporarily. A continuing electrical fire is an example of this.

Stress remains a complex issue, poorly understood and highly debated among researchers. However, the history of actual reactions to stressful situations leave a trail of indicators which can be considered fairly basic and common, to a reasonably predictable degree.

Normal operational workload leaves pilots keenly 'in tune' with the aircraft operation. To a large degree, that leaves the pilots both physically, emotionally and mentally predisposed to cope with an emergency. During their normal duties, the pilots are very close to the desired 'optimum performance level.' In the normal operational environment, an emergency isn't likely to require a radical shift of thought process, allowing a certain 'ease' in deciding when and where to focus their attention.

Within the individual situation, each crewmember's effectiveness will be subject to the same responses as the passengers, including excitation, anxiety, fear, bewilderment, feelings of helplessness, and depression. The more negative aspects of anxiety / stress response are the inability to accept support and the resistance to the open expression of fear. These factors can be further aggravated by such factors as pain, body position, distraction and noise. Pilots will be subject to their unique factors such as actual or perceived status, accountability, confidence, time pressure and fatigue effects.

The effect of anxiety and stress can be expected to interfere in an abnormal / emergency situation by reducing the crews' capacity to understand and recall information. Thus, the crew can be generally anticipated to experience problems in processing information, affecting their capacity to correctly understand and, thus, to effectively comply with appropriate instructions, and, consequently, to comply with safety measures such as checklists and standard operating procedures. Further, anxiety and stress will probably reduce the crews’ intuitive abilities to deal with unanticipated conditions and situations. However, it is also important to recognize the history of desperation having also effected brilliant solutions under stress.

Given the potential debilitating effect of anxiety and stress on flight crewmembers, it is obvious that stress and anxiety should be anticipated and alleviated as far as is humanly possible. Accident history leaves a lethal legacy in the form of a mandate for dynamic prevention, as opposed to operational rationalization.


OPTIONS AND DECISIONS

An emergency increases the demands placed on the pilots. Accordingly, the neurological system can accommodate such situations by producing the required hormones for the production of physical and mental energy. Thus, the pilots, in particular are better prepared for the classic 'fight-or-flight' response.

However, the neurological response is not exclusively the 'magic pill.' The subsequent excitation levels can potentially exceed desired limits with negative impact on the management of the emergency.

There is a certain amount of risk that the demands of an emergency can result in over-excitation. The individual's ability to function effectively can subsequently decline, perhaps only temporarily. Thus, it is also important to be aware of the limits of the human response. It is important to anticipate a normal/typical response under stress, recognizing when one's own stress response (as well as that of others) is having an adverse impact. Throughout an emergency, effective performance is essential. Gaining or maintaining that performance level is a key element of coping with the situation, in general.

Anxiety presents itself in a complex manner, requiring anticipation, recognition and management on the personal, physiological and behavioral level. Anxiety is not to be treated as a uniquely negative experience, as anxiety is also the key to the timely anticipation of threat.

The personal anxiety level is the peak of the term, ‘subjective.’ Thus, honest and clear self-assessment is required to defeat the obvious effects. Education and self-awareness are required to achieve the desired outcome. The individual has to be alert to such subjective symptoms as apprehension and fear, ‘dry-mouth,’ muscle tension, trembling and dizziness.

Of particular note is the difference between the ‘typical’ anxiety level of the individual, versus that experienced in the immediate abnormal / emergency situation. This includes a history-based assessment. Such an assessment is required to establish the real-time attitude, hopefully such as, “I’ve been through worse, we’re going to be okay.”

In that same sense, the individual needs to be cognizant of effective ‘gut feelings’ expressing themselves as anxiety. Such experience leads to such mental or verbal statements as, “I’ve got a bad feeling about this.” In consequence of such healthy responses to anxiety, additional factors may be discovered, leading to a safe outcome.

There is a broad range of differences between individuals responding to anxiety. There are those who ‘shine’ in emergencies, while there will be those who are normally ‘cool’ but who are incapacitated by the anxiety and fear in an actual emergency.

It is important to be alert for the obvious adverse indicators of stress, both in the individual and in others.


In an emergency, the effects of stress can be put into four general areas:


PHYSIOLOGICAL

These are normally short-term effects, which include: dry-mouth, sweating, increased heart rate, difficulty or irregularity of breathing. The psychological effects are also seen in the associated cognitive processes, including concentration difficulty, confusion and/or forgetfulness, the inability to prioritize or make timely decisions, difficulty in transitioning between tasks.

The physiological effects of anxiety and stress are typically viewed in the confines of the parameters of heart rate, respiration rate, blood pressure and skin condition (color / sweating).


EMOTIONAL

These include fear, anxiety and a sense of being helpless, aggression, apathy, tension and irritability.

These effects should be considered 'normal.' For short periods of time, they need not cause concern. Conversely, they serve as an indicator that the 'healthy' "fight-or-flight response has been activated; the individual is in the process of preparing themselves for the impending extraordinary action.

However, it is important that crew members recognize the reality, if their own, and others', reactions to the situation are effecting danger or interfering with their basic ability to cope with the situation or manage it.

In the absence of extremes, the individuals can then take a few simple, but effective, steps to get back on an even keel.

A basic understanding of the progression of the impairment process, however temporary is essential.

1. Acceptance that an emergency exists.
2. Nervous system activity is triggered.
3. Breathing accelerates, becoming more shallow.
4. Muscles tense with the excitation level increase.
5. Information gathering, comprehension and decision making is impaired.
6. General performance begins to decline.

The obvious requirement is to counter any such effects, restoring as much balance as possible, so as to return heart rate and blood pressure to near-optimum levels. As the excitation level drops to a magnitude near the normal level, energy is conserved, with coping skills becoming enhanced.

On a personal level, an easy method to restore balance is to consciously and deliberately slow down the rate of breathing, taking normal to deep breaths. This requires the conscious tensing of the related muscles, holding the tension for a few seconds, and then releasing the tension. The controlled holding of the breath and slowly and consciously relaxing the muscles leads to a resumption of normal breathing - as well as other important functions.

If these adverse symptoms are observed in others, encouraging them to use the technique, as appropriate, can be effective. The tone of voice will be important, "Hey chief, do me a favor & just hold your breath for a second - now let it out. Do that again a couple of more times." "Feel better now?" The impact that someone else is aware of the individual's plight and cares enough to provide any element of relief, while protecting the individual's dignity can be a terrific boost.


BEHAVIORAL

The more typical and obvious indicators include: trembling, restlessness or impulsive behavior, excitability or nervous laughing, performance of 'rituals,' such as tightening and straightening a tie, perhaps combing one's hair, extended time taken to accomplish routine or simple tasks.

The behavioral effects of anxiety and stress are expressed in the form of sweating, cold hands, tremor, rapid speech, voice pitch increase, as well as functional effects in the form of forgetfulness, fumbling, oversight and avoidance.

It is obvious that imminent threat in an emergency can be frightening for all, especially if the accident is expected to be violent or fire is anticipated. The faith in the crew's training, knowledge and experience provides some sense of protection, enabling them to cope with the stress of an emergency, allowing them to keep their emotions under some degree of control.


COMMUNICATION IN COCKPIT RESOURCE MANAGEMENT

The proper management of crew anxiety and stress is a vital part of effective Cockpit Resource Management. In particular, the function of communication changes during high anxiety and stress situations.

The expected set of events during an abnormal, or an emergency, anticipates the very worst of problems to present themselves one at a time. Unfortunately, this is not always the case. Further, training curriculums typically prohibit ‘compound emergencies.’ Thus, the flightline reality often catches the flight crew short on resources, while demanding the highest standard of strategy and communication skills.

A pilot typically expects reasonable changes such as bad weather, low fuel, go-around, diversion to the alternate or rather simple technical problems. Even with these events as being deemed, ‘reasonable,’ there is still a difference in reaction between experienced pilots and less experienced crews, within these ‘reasonable’ changes. Obviously, this divergence increases in the event of abnormal or emergency conditions.

Effective communication between the pilots and the cabin crew in an abnormal situation or a bone fide emergency requires fast paced and dynamic communication skills. Unfortunately, these skills most often come with experience, as the industry does not place an emphasis on ‘human factors’ during the course of an emergency. Again, unfortunately, communication during an actual emergency has a higher probability of breaking down, as opposed to being enhanced. An actual emergency scenario will typically contain samplings of breakdowns and enhancements, as well as intuition.

Emergency communication skills can and should be taught, but they rarely are. Crew humanity is not factored, thus, most actual emergencies depend on the best skills the individual crewmember can muster in the actual scenario. It should be noted that listening skills are equally as important as verbal skills. Emergency communication skills are ideally taught, but are more often an improvisation or unique abilities of an individual.

The frequency of abnormal situations and emergencies demand that the desired communication skills be developed through a curriculum of drills involving classroom delivery on theory and research, practice, and instructor analysis and guidance. Most importantly, attitudes toward emergencies should be developed, embodying philosophies as, “The only ‘dumb’ question is the one which is not asked.”

Anxiety and stress affect performance and communication in their effect on attention-span and the ability to acquire, recall and process information. Performance and communication are hampered by the production of irrelevant thoughts, reducing the ‘working’ memory. Anxiety and stress can also increase the required amount of effort required to maintain the ‘normal’ performance levels associated with typical low-stress conditions.

Anxiety and stress have a particularly negative effect on crew communication. The associated effects are necessary to anticipate, recognize and manage within the individual and the crew. In concert with such management is required the attitude of, “It’s not ‘wrong;’ it’s being ‘human.’”

Although CRM training, including communication skills, is supposed to involve both pilots and flight attendants, history teaches that the pragmatic effect has been negated by the non-application and reinforcement in the actual flight line experience.

The dynamics of emergency scenario communication are affected by a long list of ‘human factors,’ such as individual personality and personality conflict, experience, seniority, gender, age and ethnicity.

From a captain’s position, there are several particular communication mandates:

* Anticipation, recognition and empathy with the crews' fear and anxiety.

* A demonstrated respect for the crewmembers’ competence and identity.

* Avoidance of any discounting statements or behaviors.

* An overt indication of empathy and caring for the crewmember’s personal experience, including their immediate situation and associated problems.

* Honest and realistic assessment and assurances expressed to the crew, as opposed to false reassurances or stark reality presentations, whether actual or exaggerated.

* Verbal and non-verbal responses which enhance crew synergy.


PASSENGER RESPONSE

In the case of the passengers, the difficulties become amplified. With precious little preparation, they must be expected to accept the threat in terms of their own mortality and make radical attitude and behavior changes in a small span of time.

Risk evaluation is extremely difficult for some people under any circumstances. The typical violence of aircraft accidents becomes the epitome of chaos and confusion, compounded by the fire threat. It is vitally important that the crew takes charge quickly, preparing and effecting a constructive attitude and reaction at the first signal or (forceful) request.

Research only tells us that the complexity of human behavior defies a reliable mathematical model, permitting reasonable predictability.

Yet, statistics do offer a small degree of predictability -

Depending on the intensity/chaos of the situation, it is possible to identify three probable statistical groups:

60% may do very little, they may even engage in inappropriate behaviors, while awaiting trusted guidance.

25% may act rationally, perhaps attending to the threat or preparing their next move; they may provide warning, comfort or guidance to others.

15% may become immobile or even totally paralyzed at the actual or perceived seriousness of the situation.


INITIATIVE OF OTHERS

Those who strictly await the initiative of others sense their own limitations, trusting in the notion that others will have the necessary solution. It is a serious mistake to make assumptions as to why people become relatively immobilized. Passengers, in particular, will be affected by a broad range of experiences. The immobility can range from a strange sense of dignity or discipline to irrational fear if the next step is taken.

One group of passengers might need only clear directions to take action. Another might need some sort of 'proof' that the next step is necessary AND prudent. The second group might need forceful guidance or physical assistance.

Studies suggest that if passengers trust the quality of information they receive they are much more likely to react favorably. Conversely, if they encounter difficulty in obtaining the needed information, they may quickly become angered, aggressive and difficult to manage.

Despite standard procedures, the crew can expect the requirement to make necessary situational judgments to deal with passengers on an interpersonal level, so as to achieve the desired effect.

There will be those passengers who simply want to be told what to; they will then immediately comply.


SHOCK EFFECT

In general, time distortion is common among passengers involved in an emergency, it is common to find little or no agreement of the crisis duration following an emergency. Similarly, passengers have difficulty remembering details in general. They may not be able to cite their own address or phone number. These passengers (and crew) are the ones in the greatest need of firm guidance and assistance.

The same behavior will be seen in those who have been drinking. Alcohol may cause some to become inhibited and sleepy, while others become excited with their control over emotions diminished. Whether they require waking, calming or direct orders is something which can only be judged at the time.

In an aircraft accident, normally fire is the immediate threat. However, history teaches an important lesson, panic is far less a major concern, as opposed to inaction or inappropriate actions.


CATATONIA

Catatonia is more than instantaneous disbelief or 'freezing in place.' It can be a 'shutting-down' process; a form of mental, emotional or even physical escape. Some passengers may appear to be stunned, being unable to communicate or express any feelings or emotions, in spite of obvious signs of sweating, trembling or even nausea. Depending on the nature and phase of the emergency, some may experience tunnel vision, impaired hearing and impaired reasoning. Even with the realization of imminent threat of injury or death, they may be immobilized or react slowly; almost automatically. For these passengers, their sense of time is often radically disrupted, in a 'Limbo' effect. There is also the possibility of the individual fainting into unconsciousness, however briefly.


RATIONAL RESPONSE

The estimated 25% who can be reasonably expected to act rationally are sometimes referred to as being, 'cool heads'. These individuals appear calm; they collect their thoughts quickly. Their situational awareness is intact; their judgment and reasoning are sound. These individuals assess the situation correctly, make a plan and act appropriately.

Within reason, this group can be divided into three statistical ranges:

5% can be expected to act of their own initiative in the emergency. They will be the ones who will make an attempt to fight a fire if one is present, or prevent cabin flooding in a ditching scenario.

10% can be expected to instruct or assist others.

10% can be expected to attempt to aggressively look after themselves and may, for example, move towards any exit or safe area. Their actions may serve as an appropriate inspiration for others to follow.


The three groups compose the desired supplemental leaders who will rationally attempt to ward off any threat and inspire others to action. If they can be identified, they represent a valuable resource for the crew to take advantage of. Often, they will volunteer unique qualifications or simply their willingness to assist.

During the onset phase of an emergency, the initial actions of the 'cool heads' also display a tendency toward traditional gender roles. In general, the women can be expected to be more overtly concerned with their own and other peoples' safety. They will attempt to advise or assist others, and certainly quickly evacuate their family and themselves.

The male 'cool heads' tend to be more in tune with the "action requirement' of the situation, being more likely to attempt to fight a fire or open an emergency exit. In general, they will try to minimize risk and maximize desired action. If their assistance is needed, they will very likely try to evacuate others before themselves. Males are more willing to be separated from family, in their personal risk assessment.

Examining the structural fire scenario in particular, research indicates that the public seems more willing to fight a fire - if able - than might typically be expected. In an aircraft accident, fighting the fire is nearly impossible for passengers. However, the same population can be expected to take a leadership role in protecting passengers by ushering them to safety.

The potentially explosive nature of jet fuel is typically sufficiently famous that these same 'leaders' can be reasonably expected to act quickly and create the required distance from the potential or actual fire.

In an aircraft accident, the pilots being trapped in the cockpit can pose a unique problem. While flight attendants are taught to ensure the cockpits evacuation, the typical flight attendant may not have the physical strength to accomplish the task in the small confines of the typical cockpit. Hence, the same group of leaders can be utilized as a 'muscle' resource to extricate the pilots - if possible.

It should never be assumed that a severely damaged cockpit represents deceased pilots. Accordingly, unconscious or seriously injured pilots should not be mistaken for deceased.

While passengers, in the capacity of a resource, play a key role, this trait is not addressed with the intent of creating the impression that an expected behavior of any group in an emergency is that which conveniently fits the ideal 'heroic' model. Certainly, it is a serious mistake to depend upon the emergence of this type of individual in emergencies.

It is to be easily argued that the most logical behavior in an emergency is that of rapid escape, especially when faced with overwhelming threat. Setting aside reflexive judgments on the issue, the choice of escape is appropriate as a reasoned choice, if there is the element of self-control and a degree of rationality to the action. Escape should also be viewed in terms of it's being social and that it still recognizes the needs of others; certainly that it is not any form of panic.

Escape behaviors become inappropriate when they are ineffective; possibly counter-productive or threatening to others. Being the first through an escape hatch with a pool of fuel awaiting ignition is hardly to be admired. Beyond self-peril, the resulting open hatch obviously endangers the remaining passengers if a fire should erupts.


IRRATIONAL RESPONSES

The estimated 15% of the passengers who may demonstrate a high degree of inappropriate response during an emergency can be expected to behave in a variety of ways. The responses can range from panicked escape attempts to paralyzed anxiety or even local panic behavior. Again, escape is not necessarily an inappropriate response. It is necessary to acknowledge the possibility that it might successfully inspire others to actual safety, however risky.

When the physical and panicked escape is actually fulfilled, or is physically prevented, passengers might resort to some basic or primitive behavior such as crawling or crouching under or hiding behind something. These individuals might cling onto other people, either for either the illusion of protection or consolation.

A second irrational response is the opposite of escape - paralyzing anxiety. Here, the element of catatonia plays a role, with a sense of disbelief as the first reaction. The response might be accompanied by thoughts such as, "This can't be happening to me, this can't be real; there's some mistake, nothing bad really happened."

Such a response might exhibit uncontrolled weeping and overwhelming immobility. Passengers may stay in their seat, or, perhaps freeze in the aisle. They may need to be physically led or carried to safety. Again, some may lose consciousness.

Panic (discussed in detail later), is the extreme the inappropriate responses. With respect to emergencies, the term is defined as, "An irrational, fear-based response, which is anti-social, with the potential for reducing the escape possibilities of others." The history of aviation emergencies and accidents rarely contains the element of panic, but sufficient cases have been reported to reinforce the concern.

Panic in the emergency scenario is irrational and self-serving with little or no thought for others. Those who panic can make a difficult situation still worse - for everyone involved.

Panic is not limited to passengers. An interesting news video clip caught a captain bolting from his sliding side-window after landing with his left landing gear caught in the retracted position; minutes ahead of the first passenger egress. Needless to say, the core of the emergency leadership not only departed, but also may have undermined the effectiveness of others. In all likelihood, the remainder of the crew reacted with a rational 'revenge.'

Of those who would panic, it has been found that they may act without conscious thought for their own, or others', safety. They might be unaware of their actual surroundings, an immediate threat and any adverse impact that they might be having.

In another accident, a couple panicked, defying the instructions of the flight attendants, opened an emergency exit and exited to a flaming death below.

Unless clearly overwhelming conditions prevail, very few passengers are likely to panic. In non-aviation studies only 1% to 5% of people fall into the estimated 'likely-to-panic' category. Obviously, fire is one event likely to trigger a panic response, however, the element of fire is inconsistent in that regard.

Should passengers actually panic; their actions are likely to be completely unpredictable. They may require physical restraint with other people needed to look after them. Physical force may be required to keep them from becoming an additional threat to themselves or others.

It must be emphasized that the underlying cause is a combination of their own sense of insecurity, causing them to react to actual or perceived inadequate information or confidence in the situation or crew. With sufficient fear, they can lose their ability to think or act rationally.

The implications to flight crews are obvious - useful and meaningful information at all stages is of vital importance for the passengers - and the crew.

During these phases, families and close friends can be expected to want to be together. They will rely heavily on each other for advice, especially if the warning sources are uncertain and the impact, when it comes, is sudden. They should, whenever possible, be brought and kept together, so as to preclude supplemental problems.

With some passengers having reached their own personal estimation of threat, there may be a decision to act and/or to warn others. As a rough guide only, if left to their own devices approximately 25% can be relied on to act rationally. Such reactions are more likely if the individuals have had recent similar experiences, knowledge of similar disasters, or are with their family or a group of close friends. This group can be a valuable asset to the flight crew.

The bulk of passengers may accept the fact that there is a problem, but either take no action for some obscure reason, or be slow to do so. If it is fear or uncertainty, which is underlying the inactivity, they may be experiencing thoughts such as, "This isn't going to work" "It's too late" "No one can help me" "There's no point in even trying." Thus, it is apparent that effective command must be taken early and maintained.


EVACUATION BEHAVIOR

In elementary terms, evacuation is obviously the action of getting passengers focused on the appropriate instructions and to physically move away from a threatening environment. It is academic that they must first become aware, or at least suspect or assume, that a threat exists, referring to the so-called 'warning' phase. Next, they must accept it, in terms of the onset phase. Given that people differ in their ability to accept information during the first two phases they must quickly decide on a course of action and follow through with it.

Aircraft evacuations are independently threatening with respect to an accepted institutional ignorance on the subject. The NTSB has identified a long list of life-threatening aspects to aircraft evacuations, from aircraft design through evacuation procedures. While the NTSB has brought their issues to the FAA and Congress, little attention is being paid to the topic - by anyone. Typical behavior in the evacuation phase illustrates why this phase is so critical to survival.

Human nature dictates that anything, which is unfamiliar and unexpected, can be inherently alarming; even without an actual threat. To control or reduce anxiety, people often attempt to convince themselves, consciously and subconsciously, that what they are seeing and hearing is actually normal or at least not particularly threatening, as opposed to being an indicator that things are rapidly going wrong. The most powerful internal debate seems to be subconscious.

Such personal arguments assert that an 'apparently harmless and plausible explanation' is available and leaves them safe. Such irrational beliefs can be often accepted for considerable time, despite clear evidence to the contrary. Passengers are no different than any population in that they also tend to see and hear what they choose. They typically do not want to be forced to accept a breach in their safety assumptions.

Aircraft accidents are typically of two categories, planned - with preparations, and unplanned - extremely abrupt and with precious little time to act or react.

Aircraft are unique in that the physical angle or 'attitude' of the aircraft can send a correct or incorrect message to passengers and crew alike.


Lets examine a scenario -

A wheel brake locks-up with the aircraft taxiing for takeoff, causing sufficient heat to burst a tire. The sound of the tire burst might be puzzlement, varying to mild concern. The fact might easily be that the burst tire tore open the wing, breaking fuel lines. With the fuel spilling in the vicinity of the hot brake, a fire is impending.

If sufficient knowledge is available to the cockpit, there might be an order to evacuate. With no threat perceived by the passengers, they may sit fast, even though an undisputed evacuation order has been given. The fact that the aircraft is still upright and seemingly 'normal' can send an erroneous message to the passengers.

Now, if the fire erupts, the response is radically different with the added element of a time shortage. If the wind carries the smoke over to the safe side of the aircraft with the obvious ambiguity in the passengers' minds, they may hesitate to exit into the smoke. Conversely, they may decide of their own accord to go out the opposite side, admitting smoke and flame into the cabin itself.

With clear communication, much danger can be avoided. However, the message has to be clearly understood with the appropriate instructions and with pertinent detail and no more.


Imagine two PAs -

"Ladies & gentlemen, we seem to have blown a tire. We'll be evacuating on the right side of the aircraft only. Please leave your belongings and move to the exits now."

Or;

"This is the captain. We've had a tire burst, rupturing a fuel line with a high risk of a fire on the left side of the aircraft, flight attendants, right side only, right side only, evacuate, evacuate, right side only!"

The two messages are radically different. The second message carries authority, a command tone, accurate information, identification of the threat and clear directions (preceding the evacuation order) and evacuate the order itself, with both the directions and the action ordered.

In most cases, the second PA would compel a 100% rapid compliance.

Move to another level. Before the PA can be given, the fire breaks out with the passengers fully aware. Again, put the wind on the side of the fire, blowing smoke into the desired evacuation path. The passengers may have formed their own resolve, possibly initiating an evacuation on the wrong side. Chaos can be the result, complete with panic. The over-wing doors are opened on the wrong side, admitting smoke, the overhead evacuation lights are obscured.

While the flight attendants might be screaming instructions over the PA, is there enough volume to communicate over the panicked voices of the passengers? With overwhelming indicators, the passengers may become highly autonomous as to the immediate evacuation. They may or may not, 'get it right.'

Even the most experienced passenger may find the scenario far more confusing than they could ever have imagined. Without adequate or timely information, even crewmembers can get badly confused. In one aircraft accident, the left engine failed with an associated vibration and ambiguous engine indications. Both pilots came to the wrong conclusion, shutting down the wrong engine. Amazingly, the bad engine continued to run, until short final; then quit, with a resulting fatal crash. Having failed to validate their assumptions, a highly professional crew shut down the wrong engine, ultimately causing an unnecessary accident; with fatalities.

Aircraft emergencies often evolve rapidly. The desired time element may not be available. Waiting for clarification or instructions may not be an option.


LANGUAGE BARRIERS

From the United States, it's not uncommon to have a significant percentage of non-English speaking passengers on flights into such places as Mexico. Although certain limitations must be recognized, the boarding safety briefing must be orally presented - per the FAA regulations - with the obvious intent that the briefing is understood. By the regulations and the FAA procedural manuals, the seat-back safety briefing cards supplement the primary briefing; they do not substitute.

Such passengers can only overcome their limitation by guessing correctly or to follow someone else. With luck, they may have looked at the evacuation cards in the seat-back pockets, gaining an elementary idea as to what is expected of them. Ironically, that action may leave them better prepared than those who understand English, but didn't bother listening to the briefing or studying the cards.


Thoughts Expressed from Historic Emergencies

"The little things seemed to make a big difference."
"Most people were concerned about family and friends."
"We just wanted to know what was happening."
"We waited for whoever was in charge."
"Nobody told us anything."
"Everyone was pushing and shoving."
"We desperately wanted to know what to do."


In the event of a violent crash, the cockpit may not have the ability to communicate due to aircraft damage, injury or their demise. Such a scenario is not uncommon or unexpected. However, the command structure will have broken down, leaving the evacuation command to the flight attendants. In such a threat situation there is still the obvious need for clear information and a command structure, so that, as far as may be possible, no matter who is removed, the next person in the chain of command can, and will, step into the suspected or known breach, advising and instructing the evacuation process. Clearly, flight attendants need guidance on when to self-initiate an evacuation.

Even if the command structure has not broken down, getting the passengers to move in the required time frame and in the needed direction by those managing the situation can still be a serious problem.

Without clear information and guidance many people may remain in their seats until they are satisfied that they have a very clear mandate to evacuate. Even with adequate information and instructions, some may still be reluctant to move when required to do so. The flight attendant nightmare is when the passengers decide to take their personal belongings with them, contrary to the instructions. Between the time requirement and the obvious physical impediment, such barriers can - and have - killed.

This tendency for human response, during an emergency, to appear random and chaotic has led to the identification of a number of common and mistaken assumptions during the evacuation phase of an emergency.

For example, those responsible for the safe evacuation of people in an emergency may assume that passengers will start to move as soon as they, 'hear the order.' Unfortunately, such is not always the case. Psychological denial mechanisms can still be in place even after passengers recover from the 'brace' or 'impact' position (bent over with arms crossed, contacting the seat in front of them). The aircraft coming to a stop with a relative quiet might create a false, but welcome, sense of security.

Without overwhelming indicators, some people might still be reluctant to start evacuation procedures immediately. There might be those who abruptly elect to wait for 'further' clarity and 'kinder' instructions, or they may decide that it is just better to wait and see what happens next.

Any background panic or hysteria (screaming) could trigger a thought process to the effect of, "Well, I'm not joining in THAT." As a consequence, a different deadly delay could be effected. Seconds can be very precious in any emergency.

Even when any warnings and threat have been accepted as genuine, some people still cannot think and act for themselves.

An estimated 10-15% of the passengers may experience the 'disaster syndrome.' They will appear as being stunned, dazed and bewildered. Realistically, this response can be expected to be short lived, ultimately yielding to either hyperactivity or to the desired appropriate evacuation response. In psychological terms, the 'disaster syndrome' reaction is an 'adaptive' function which nature seems to offer as a protection for the individual from being mentally and emotionally overwhelmed by the impact of the immediate trauma.

Passengers in this group may become immobile, sitting or standing around in a passive or apathetic manner. They may seem oblivious to both the danger and the presence or the needs of others. Whether by aid of the crew or by the assistance of other passengers, they may need mild-to-forceful assistance to get away from the threat. In extreme cases they may need to be carried out. Some passengers may struggle irrationally, unable to remember how or be able to unfasten their seat belt.

An estimated 60% can be expected to understand the situation, but without clear instructions and forceful orders, they might be uncertain as to their plight and otherwise be given to changing their minds, even if they do make a decision. Fortunately, these are estimated to be more easily influenced, tending to follow the lead of the strongest person in their immediate vicinity. Unfortunately, these individuals also tend to follow such individuals even if they have made a wrong decision. These too, may become immobile, until forcefully instructed or until the threat becomes too great. This group is normally much 'stronger' in all manners and can render assistance if so instructed.

There is an incorrect assumption that the passenger motivation to escape will dominate the passenger's autonomous decisions and consequent actions. Again, passengers can be expected to initially attempt to take stock of the situation, continuing their 'normal' activity, as opposed to 'switching' into the 'escape' mentality. Hence, they must be emphatically instructed to escape. There seems to be a subconscious argument to the effect of, "control is safety," in the early portion of any phase. Passengers will tend to initially investigate, rather than immediately effect their escape.

To repeat, 10% can be expected to attempt to save themselves, acting or moving toward safety. Depending on the individual situation, another 5% can reasonably be expected to act on their own initiative and attack the problem - if possible.

10% of the passengers may repeat or originate warnings or instruct others. This group contains the passengers who may emerge as spontaneous leaders. These passengers will rationally attempt to ward off any possible threat by putting others to work. These are the individuals who can be expected to instruct others in the fashion of, "Hey! Help him get his life vest on!"

There is also the risk that passengers will tune out or simply forget recent information. The evacuation procedures can be forgotten. These passengers will tend to revert to any familiar responses, which have served them in the past, even though those responses may now be non-pertinent and totally inappropriate. Stress can also trigger such medical conditions as hypoglycemia, diminishing a passenger's capacity to respond appropriately.

These are the passengers who may shift their focus to irrelevant details with a potential to collect their belongings. Such efforts will be an attempt to distract themselves from the immediate threat and, inadvertently, the more important task of escape.

The passenger desire to collect their personal belongings is a mental and emotional escape mechanism, also characteristic of earlier phases of an emergency. In psychology, this is termed, 'affiliative behavior' - characterized by passengers directing their attention toward that which is familiar (safe) and their attachment to the associated objects and memories, as opposed to actively evading an obvious threat.

Heroics may occur. Ideally, personal survival instinct dominates, with passengers and crew successfully escaping. However, there is a very real risk that altruistic and humanitarian impulses will create a secondary risk. In a variety of emergencies, people have demonstrated a reasonably predictable propensity to assist others, to the point of being mysteriously foolhardy, endangering their own lives. Thus, some passengers, and especially crewmembers, may need to be protected from their own heroism.


TIME REQUIREMENT

Perhaps the most dangerous assumption is that the required time to evacuate depends exclusively on the time required to exit from the aircraft.

The required time is the total of the warning phase through the time period in which people are in safe environs or being cared for by professionals. The 'start up time' - the crew and passengers reaction to a warning or an alarm - is equally as important as the time required to physically move to and through an exit, on toward absolute safety.

The process in total involves crew and passengers becoming aware that a threat exists, the acceptance of the risk, consideration of alternative actions, decision on a dependable course of action and then the execution of that course of action.

In the realm of human nature, discussion and analysis with others is an automatic and vital component of the process, however, also requiring the element of time. Unfortunately, a part of the process is the elevation of anxiety, which invariably interferes; thus increasing the time requirement to an unpredictable degree.

It is obvious and understandable that unfamiliar and unexpected events are inherently given to create some form of anxiety or alarm. Passengers and even crewmembers may attempt to reduce their anxiety by mentally restructuring the indicators of danger in familiar ways. As an example, the sighting of smoke may be assumed to be from food burning in the galley ovens. The assumption being that it is already known and that something is being done about it - by someone else.

Strangely, but predictably, the subsequent 'harmless and plausible' assumptions are often too readily accepted, despite accompanying evidence to the contrary. In a sentence, as a mental and emotional safety mechanism, people strongly tend to see and believe what they want. Unfortunately, this response invariably leads to inaction. Consequently, valuable time, sometimes measurable in seconds, is lost. Needed communication is often delayed or precluded, resulting in many people becoming immobile or simply waiting for information or instructions; seemingly ignorant of the imminent threat.

An opposite risk potentially exists in the possibility that anxiety-driven passengers - or crew - may not be able to bring themselves to wait for clarification on the situation and subsequent instructions; instead jumping to conclusions with inappropriate timing or action. For example, firing an extinguisher at a galley panel, as opposed to first exposing the opening to the burning trash bin, itself.

The anxiety, which potentially could improve their performance of simple tasks, can also paralyze people when coping with frightening, complex or unfamiliar tasks - such as crawling to safety under a layer of smoke or opening an over-wing exit.

The element of evacuation time must also consider unaccompanied children, the handicapped and the elderly. All of these could require more time to evacuate, with these individuals typically being more concerned with their personal belongings. This factor carries the additional implication that if they are part of a group, particularly a family group, the entire group tends to move at the speed of their slowest member.


EXITS

The typical airline safety briefing attends to another assumption, that people are most likely to move toward the nearest exit. Accidents have proven a liability in this regard. Logically, an exit choice can be determined by its visibility, it's appearance as an appropriate choice and its distance from the individual.

However, remember the typical caveat of a safety briefing, "..remembering that the nearest exit might be located behind you." The harsh reality is that in emergencies people are most likely to move in concert with other people, or toward exits with which they are familiar (in front of them, as normally seated), unless there is an adverse compelling reason (fire) or an obvious and serious obstacle in the way.

It must be anticipated that the passengers will tend to evacuate through a familiar route (forward cabin entry door), even if it is not the nearest exit. The gravity of primitive reasoning will tend to take them away from a well marked and illustrated, but unfamiliar, escape door. Obviously, the normal cabin entry may not be the best exit during an emergency for a variety of reasons, including its proximity to the probable frontal point of impact, with consequent damage to the door frame itself.

Worse, elevated anxiety levels or fears may cause passengers to persist in their attempt to use the chosen escape route, blocking the progress of passengers and crew to the appropriate exit. The situation can be aggravated if they should somehow inspire a 'following;' the additional cost in time can be critical to the survival of many, if not all.

Overall, passengers can be more reliably to move as a group, as opposed to random individual courses of action in the fashion of 'every man for himself'.


DENSITY FACTOR

A different psychology and sociology exists in the modern 'passenger' environment. People are essentially forced to abandon their normally preferred 'social distance' in favor of tolerating close proximity to others, for lack of control. The passenger 'crowding' in the Japanese domestic transportations systems is an example of this. The individual's psychology, background and tolerance factor will dictate the allowed proximity between themselves and others. The social relationship makes a difference, as well, for example whether the individuals around are family or strangers; social status or ethnicity can play a comparable role. An obscure statistic is the number of those who refuse to fly for these very reasons.

The 'density' of the passengers, to a degree, may force passengers to move as a group. Conversely, on a lightly loaded aircraft, the passengers may have the physical option to maintain their desired distance or proximity. Given the element of available time, the nature of the emergency can induce passengers to seek individuals to whom they have (or want to have) emotional ties, seeking some element of safety from them. In the reverse, individuals may altruistically seek someone to whom they can actively offer advice, information and support, including physical support. Time permitting, a lightly loaded aircraft may require passenger grouping, in preparation for the evacuation.


SOCIAL FACTOR

The response of an organized traveling group or family may be expected to diverge from otherwise expected behavior. Particularly in the case of a family, passengers can be expected maintain a close bond, so as to survive as a unit. The fear and the threat of the emergency and actual evacuation can reasonably be expected to intensify bonds between family, close associates and friends. It can be reliably expected that after the immediate egress from the aircraft, separated members will try to re-assemble, even at grave risk to themselves and others. An intense fire may not prevent attempts to do so. Obviously, the case of parents separated from their children can be expected to be the most serious event. Parents carry the potential for even irrationally moving in whatever direction they perceive as being necessary to re-unite themselves with their children. Thus, it is vital for the escape of any children to be effected and averted as early as possible.

Family / gender roles are also a powerful influence on passenger responses in an emergency scenario. To a degree, passengers will be socially aligned with their general routine response patterns. As cited earlier there is a risk that wives may still wait for their husbands to take control over events, not moving until he does. Additionally, it's possible that if a parent is injured, that children might strongly resist leaving the parent until the parent is clearly being assisted to the exit.


EXIT MARKING

The role of exit signs in an evacuation plays an important role, as does the now prominent 'floor-track lighting' as a means to ensure a safety route. There are two risks associated with these indicators:

1. Aircraft accidents can be sufficiently violent that major or obvious exits become unusable, adding a potentially deadly confusion factor.

2. Passenger psychological mechanisms may interfere.


The general 'narrowing' of attention during a period of anxiety can result in obvious and peripheral indications escaping passenger attention. In extreme cases is the effect of 'tunnel vision.' Passengers may not notice either major indicators or smaller details in their immediate environment around them - including the exit signs and the floor-track lighting.

Human nature and associated habit carry the liability of prejudice. The common temptation is for passengers with an acceptable degree of awareness looking to the ceiling for such indicators. Aircraft accidents have the added risk of smoke quickly obscuring those signs, combined with the failure of attention alternately being given to the floor locations for such clues. In a violent accident, add to that environment the cabin being turned on its side or totally upside down with total obscuration or loss of the indications from the electrical power loss, damage or debris.

Studies in building fires offer some valuable statistics. One such study indicated that over 80% of people didn't notice the lighted exit signs. Another study included some firemen and policemen among those who didn't notice the signs.

Even when passengers do notice the signs, the traumatic effects leave them with limited ability to properly interpret their correct meaning relative to the actual situation. For example, an overhead "EXIT" sign might be illuminated with arrows pointing to the left and right over-wing or aft-aircraft exits. However, if the blind-faith assumption is that both are viable choices, there is a risk that a passenger could open a dangerous exit - even after receiving instructions to the contrary. This is particularly dangerous in such situations as a fire or ditching.

The same idea applies to both symbols and words. The label, "EXIT" could be perceived as a verb, as opposed to a physical location in times of stress. Verbiage in aural instructions must be carefully chosen as well. A common recommendation for pilots announcing the evacuation itself, where only one side or exit location must be used, is to preface the actual evacuation announcement with the preferred side first, as opposed to the instruction. For example, "Right side only, right side only, right side only; evacuate, evacuate, evacuate!" To the best of anyone's ability, potential ambiguity must be anticipated and avoided.

In defiance of logic, it must be accepted that prominent exit signs may not always be noticed; verbal instructions may not be recalled or understood. There is also the risk that, for extremely complex reasons, passengers may somehow assume that there is no guarantee that the exit will actually be available, or that the route will be sufficiently marked and un-obstructed. Consequently, they may hesitate to move toward or actually use the exit; simply following the crowd.

With respect to individual choice, the exit selection is influenced by many variables, including the preference of a highly familiar exit - even to the exclusion of closer and more appropriate exits. In such cases, the individual may not make any attempt to discover or read obvious exit signs.

As a minimum, it can be hoped that an effective escape can be achieved by such verbal commands as, "This way!"

The B-747 has presented an interesting paradox. In general, pilots are afraid of heights (believe it or not). Consequently, a B-747 cockpit crew can reasonably be expected to follow the passenger route down the stairs, as opposed to using the much faster overhead cockpit exit with the "escape reels." Such a choice can combine a mixture of a sense of responsibility to facilitate the exit of passengers and crew, but may be limited to the simple distrust of the escape reels (which have no failure history) and their associated fear of heights. Supporting that idea is the fact that the B-747 also has a side exit with an inflatable slide, but it is located much higher and the angle of the slide is much steeper. An abnormal aircraft angle, high winds or angled terrain can aggravate the situation.

Another risk phenomenon appears in the form that passengers are not necessarily guaranteed to automatically evade or escape obvious danger. Returning to structural fire studies as an indicator, passengers cannot be automatically anticipated to evade a smoke-filled perceived escape route. The reliable deterrence against passengers moving 'into the fire' comes from the heat evasion of the 'oven effect.' If the aircraft fuselage is angled, moving toward the fire might be a function of moving into intense heat, which can be expected to be an effective directional motivator.

One of the risks, on aircraft, is that passengers might irrationally elect to hide from the threat in a lavatory. Thereafter, people become understandably reluctant to expose themselves to the smoke or to move through smoke to safety by opening the door. The obvious anticipation is that any such passengers might open the lavatory door, discover the smoke filled cabin, then instinctively close it again - and locking it. While flight attendants are trained to be alert for such, any chaos can make such a check more demanding of the critical time factor.

However, there will be those who are well enough mentally & emotionally prepared to quickly move through the smoke to safety. Structural fire studies also suggest that approximately 70% are prepared to accept smoke along the escape route, if they have the perception that such is necessary. The obvious requirement is to effect sufficient communication and control that the passengers are factually moving in the direction of safety.

As another indicator, residential fire departments struggle to get family members to exit a burning house through their most immediate window, as opposed to going down a smoke-filled hallway to either escape or assist others. Fire departments illustrate that in the case of single-level homes, exiting through a window allows a person to break the window of other household members, as opposed to risking their own life in a flaming or smoke-filled hallway, unnecessarily failing in their intended rescue attempt. Domestic fire studies again illustrate gender differences; women seemed less likely to move through smoke than men.

The basic environment plays a key role as well. An accident happening in the daytime in clear weather or with an absence of smoke dictates a timesaving confidence factor. Familiarity adds to the crew assets. A frequent flier might blossom as an effective leader, being familiar with the basic environment and the particular aircraft. Such a passenger is also more likely to successfully lead others through smoke to safety.

Hence, there is an added benefit to the normal PR process of pampering frequent flyers. Regardless of the cause or motivation, in an emergency, appropriate leadership is a vital component in the process. As a minimum, such 'divine' passengers can reasonably be relied upon to reinforce the other passengers following of crew directions.

Another factor during an evacuation is the passengers' physical capability to move to an exit. Disregarding injuries, the passengers' ability to move to an appropriate exit obviously can vary with a number of factors, ranging from age and physical fitness to mental and emotional limitations.

While younger passengers are assumed to have the ability to retain information, follow directions and make appropriate decisions, even they can become mentally and emotionally impaired under stress.

Physical condition can easily enter the picture, as well. A diabetic or alcoholic might indulge in a personal whiskey flask; a person suffering from some degree of hypoglycemia may become disabled by the stress-induced calorie burn-off.

Older passengers may find the process still more difficult. With sufficient aging factors, such as agility, physical capability and strength, movement toward an exit can take significantly longer. Elderly passengers are often more vulnerable to the effects of toxic fumes. These factors can potentially cause confusion, ineffective response; possibly death.

Children pose an additional risk, even when traveling with parents. Young children show a tendency to hide in times of stress, as opposed to making their way toward an exit. Often, they may become immobile, choosing to sit and cry. Especially in an emergency, unaccompanied children require that much more attention to ensure their safety. On the plus side, these children are typically small enough to be readily carried out of the aircraft.

The inexperience of passengers, or a fear-of-flying, may hinder their response, including the successful movement to exits and escaping supplemental danger such as post-accident fire. Their handicap will worsen if the aircraft is torn apart, resting at a bizarre angle or with debris, scattered in their intended exit path.

Particularly on late or long flights, alcohol intake will play a significant role. Beyond the obvious limitations regarding the movement toward exits, the 'drunk,' if you'll permit, can display a broad range of responses from effective heroics to irrational and counter-productive behavior. Depending on the circumstance those 'under the influence' may be mentally and physically incapable of the desired responses.


PANIC

Any emergency, involving people, carries the potential for panic. However, panic is not high on the list of risk indicators. For the most part, panic is a function of both surprise and the imminence of injury or death. Panic normally requires the clarity of desperation, irrational or otherwise. Alternate and safe avenues go a long way to protect against the risk of panic. The primary risk of panic is the injury people will inflict on each other, rather than the primary threat such as a fire. In emergencies involving panic, whether people crush each other or mass against an exit, it is often difficult to assign the cause of injury or death primarily to the overriding threat. Thus emergency management is again the key element. A timely warning is the most serious element in panic concern; appropriate instructions should closely follow.

Personal response is obviously a major factor in an emergency. Psychologists generally speak in terms of personal response being either "adaptive" or "non-adaptive."

'Adaptive' behavior is obviously perceived as rational and productive, assisting safety and survival. Conversely, non-adaptive behavior is that which we categorize as irrational, with the potential for hindering safety and survival.

In these concepts, we again have to examine the human response.


INACTION

It is appropriate to examine the effect of catatonia, sometimes thought of as total disbelief or 'freezing.' Catatonia can be as simple as a very brief period of denial and immobility. It can be as complex as a total shutting down of mind and body. Catatonia is essentially a bewildered or stunned response to an unusual or unwanted event or series of events, typical of serious emergencies.

In the discussion of the onset phase, the so-called 'disaster syndrome' can be reasonably expected, especially if the emergency event is sudden, becomes violent, bewildering in it's own right, and presents clear and imminent or potential danger. The same disaster syndrome reaction can be reasonably expected during the early stages of the evacuation process.

This response can be anticipated in terms of both emotion and psychology. While fear will be the underlying emotional response, the psychological mechanisms will determine the decision-making, or lack thereof. The responses will be intended to protect the person from being completely overwhelmed by the threat of the event. Inaction can also have a benefit, if for no other reason than an alternative to panic. It should be noted, however, that catatonia can be categorized as a panic (irrational) response, as well.

Inaction, as an extreme response, is evidenced by passengers appearing dazed, apathetic, stunned or unusually passive. Some passengers may sit immobile, staring at the seat ahead or at a single magazine page; they may stare blankly out the window. They are usually quite oblivious to their surroundings, the potential threat, as well as the presence or the needs of others.

The obvious risk is that these passengers might remain sufficiently immobile to the extreme of being overwhelmed by such threats as smoke and fire; possibly drowning in a ditching.

Such inaction or catatonia can be expected to pass reasonably quickly, however, it can last for several hours. Often the passenger will subsequently resort to either hyperactivity or to some appropriate activity.

Experienced passengers or crew can also be overwhelmed by their first emergency experience. Inexperienced passengers or crew pose an additional element of risk.

The element of inaction is not totally understood. Another cause can be known inadequate knowledge of the appropriate response, as opposed to being a direct consequence the actual threat or associated confusion. Especially with crewmembers, there is the added fear of overreaction, causing the individual to appear foolish. In a potential ditching scenario, a flight attendant may be confused as to timing, resisting the urge to advise passengers to get their life vests at the ready or to actually don them.

For some, there may be a true paralyzing fear, resulting in inaction; others may fail to react due to conflicting impulses. In the event of a post-accident fire, an individual could be faced with the conflict of whether or not to escape and leave a loved one who has become separated or to wait, possibly searching for them in the burning aircraft or moving against the tide of escaping passengers.

Passengers and crew alike are also subject to a 'mortality complex,' experiencing no impulse for action, becoming resigned to their perceived fate. Pilots are subject to the 'captain's resolve' of "going down with his ship." This is particularly true in a clear case where the accident was caused by pilot error. In most cases, inaction is the consequence of either failing to recognize the seriousness of the situation, or a total uncertainty as to what the correct response is. While crisis is typically thought of as a 'fight-or-flight' scenario, the element of 'submission' also is available as a conscious or subconscious choice.

Conversely, as might be expected, the experienced survivors typically do not typically become victims to inaction, especially well-trained and experienced crewmembers. However, the degree of training is still a large variable within the industry. For example, the faith in modern aircraft may express itself in a minimum of training or preparedness for a ditching. Hence, crewmembers remain vulnerable to their humanity.

Background, culture and religion can exert a determining influence during an emergency. A group of Marines may become active facilitators of safety. However, some groups might view a potential disaster as being void of any control. While religious beliefs can also possibly lead to inaction, inappropriate action or the quiet acceptance of death.

Conversely, an atheist may become enraged at the whole situation and effect survival to simply prove a point. Another may believe that he / she has an unfulfilled mission and either become a safety facilitator or simply effect their own survival, based on their religious concepts.


ESCAPE DESPERATION

Escape behavior sometimes can be non-rational in the sense that normal decision-making processes become suspended, but the resulting response may not express itself as true panic.

Desperate acts are automatic responses to danger when fear elevates the survival instinct. Such cases are not to be classed as panic, as they remain social and retain some degree of organized thought, however unusual or inappropriate the response might seem to a detached onlooker.

As part of the escape response, some passengers (even crew members) may almost automatically move to the rear of the aircraft during the descent, trying to evade the feared impact or perhaps to seek the tail section as the statistically greatest point of safety in a crash. They might elect to 'escape' into the aft lavatory, despite the absence of a seat belt. Similarly, after a crash, they may automatically move aft based on the assumption that the tail offers the best protection or escape route. This action might go against the judgment, advice or outright orders of an experienced crewmember, in charge of the evacuation.

Particularly with an aircraft breakup, some may try to flee in random directions; most often, the first direction which occurs to them. In other events, passenger evacuation may be held in check by 'normal rules'. For example, passengers might resist evacuating out the cockpit windows without first being instructed or getting permission, even with a rapidly encroaching fire.

A rapid escape attempt is often confused with panic, especially when escapees do not use an obvious 'best route,' or mass near a single exit creating a bottleneck. This is almost always caused by lack of direction or the passengers forgetting, possibly not knowing the best escape route or the existence of their alternatives. However, there is the possibility of viable unique knowledge, such as a single passenger spotting daylight coming through a large breach of the fuselage. Conversely, a passenger might also discover a threat, such as the sight of flames or dense smoke.

When the escape process is complete, or becomes clearly impossible, protective reactions will occur. Passengers may crawl under or crouch behind something, evading further danger. Passengers and even crew may cling to each other, enacting an instinctive and primitive last attempt at comfort, safety security or consolation; whether productive or otherwise.


PANIC RESPONSE

Panic is an irrational over-reaction with the potential for endangering the life and/or the welfare the individual or those around him/them. Again, the treatment of the term "panic" brings with it a powerful but inaccurate image. Often enough, emergencies evoke somewhat desperate acts or just the element of chaos. Beyond a certain point, it becomes irresponsible to arbitrarily misinterpret any sort of emotionally charged escape behavior as being that of 'panic,' as opposed to reasonable desperation. The subsequent misunderstanding can leave people in a mind-set that disorganized behavior amounting to chaos is 'panic,' thus uncontrollable. As a consequence, where control is in fact possible, capable persons might prematurely decide against trying to effect the needed control.

True panic is characterized by attempts at self-preservation at all costs, including an abandonment of a family or traveling group. Panic is highly charged and very obviously emotional. Its intensity is a function of perceived or suspected immediate and / or severe threat. Panic can often increase any threat to the individual and the threat to others, as opposed to effectively evading or diminishing the threat in any way. For the flight crew, panic can be a problem if individuals or a group persists in the belief that there is any form of impending threat, known, suspected, imaginary or actual which leaves them with the irrational resolve for immediate protection or escape. As an example, a PA announcing a reduction in altitude to accompany a procedure for a failed air conditioning pack might trigger a passenger to start violently tearing at an overhead oxygen mask panel.

The physical nature of aircraft leaves those who are predisposed to the panic response with the sense of physical entrapment. Additionally, those same individuals may react to their limited courses of action or limited number of escape routes. In the post-crash scene, there is the automatic risk of panic, given any limitation of the anticipated escape routes - whether they are unmarked, obscured, blocked, jammed or simply overlooked. The precipitating factor, in those who would panic, is their perception that time is very short, with the opportunity to escape rapidly fading.

In the confines of an aircraft, another risk is the front-to-rear communication breakdown or failure. Obviously the primary risk in confined panic is that of the passengers at the back of the line pressing forward on those at the front, with the potential of those in front being trampled, crushed, injured or smothered.

Panic can become still more complex. Passengers have a propensity for panic if socially connected individuals or groups become physically isolated by barriers or distance. In the case of true panic, the perception of threat can become consuming to the degree that passengers may not notice others around them, becoming non-communicative and unable to interact with other passengers or crew. Time permitting; it is advisable to ensure that 'connected' passengers are united within reasonable limits. While typical boarding efforts are commonly oriented around this sociology as a courtesy, that 'norm' can pay a later dividend, should an emergency arise.

Group panic functions differently. Group panic typically begins with a benign perception in a crisis when passengers interpret the recent events as dangerous, elevating their anxiety. Thereafter, even though their perceptions do not immediately cause an over-reaction, the actions or reactions of others amplifies their concern or creates the conviction that the situation is far more dangerous than they previously believed.

Panic can seemingly be a 'standby' option. Passengers may require others panicking before taking a situation seriously. However, once they witness panic, the effect can be instantly contagious, requiring all possible intervention by crew or other passengers. Following a panic onset, reassurances or direct orders over the PA or megaphone are probably the only reliable tool available to the flight crew, backed up by passenger initiatives. Beyond crowd control, the crew must ensure their own safety in a panic scenario.

Panic can also be very slow to develop in an evolving emergency, particularly if the voiced concerns or actions of other people seem to abruptly illuminate the nature and seriousness of the current situation - rightly or wrongly. It can be a major mistake for the crew, or even ground staff, to underestimate the passenger response resulting from little or no information being presented. The information presented to passengers should be as complete as possible, carrying the appropriate authority in an evolving emergency, so as to best preclude the element of panic. One can imagine a threatening situation lacking clarity, with one passenger emotionally commenting, "What's the use; we're all going to burn to death."


DESIRED RESPONSE

The desired responses in an emergency are those which are vital to basic safety and survival. These include alertness and awareness, information gathering, appropriate decision-making and active mental, emotional and physical preparation for escape.

Remembering the human response, spiritual orientation toward survival can be a powerful asset as well. The desired responses can be described as 'adaptive,' they are rational, appropriate and serve safety and survival. Passengers who resort to silent or quieted prayer effect a desirable mind/body control. Prayer - in it's classic form - takes the individual to a meditative state. The same may reasonably be said of concentrated silent or quieted bible reading.

The desired response of a passenger is his/her attentiveness to the safety briefing or instructions; including the safety briefing card in the seat-backs. This attention is ideally immediately followed by their acceptance of the situation, appropriate retention/assimilation of the information, their employment of available information, self-control, or stress management if you prefer. Passengers will ideally take appropriate action to minimize any risks and facilitate the proper response of others. Certainly, if an accident occurs, the passengers would ideally act constructively in the evacuation of themselves and others. Hopefully, the passengers will enable each other.

Studies have been conducted in an attempt to reliably predict a 'typical' response of passengers in an emergency. Once again, the majority of reliable indicators come from structural disaster / fire scenarios. The studies can only suggest a response, as each situation is different, with different crowds and cultures. A very limited number of studies have been conducted in the airline environment; these will be discussed later.

The studies did, obviously, conclude that the negative impact of an emergency can be minimized by the provision of adequate information and training. While the crews are normally provided with at least a minimum of both, well in advance, the passengers are not typically so fortunate. Thus, in an emergency situation, good leadership is critical. A major portion of that leadership is the communication of pertinent information to the passengers. No humor intended, the passengers are often given a 'crash course' in survival. Typically, the information is delivered in a very short period of time, possibly in terms of seconds, if the event is abrupt and unexpected. Given adequate time availability, it would be prudent to conduct 'brace' drills for practical, as well as psychological, effect.

In a worst-case scenario, (incapacitated crew) the immediate concern is the ability of passengers to appropriately and effectively respond. At best, estimates are controversial. Within reason, the general consensus estimates that approximately 10 - 25% of the passengers can be anticipated to appropriately and effectively respond during the onset phase, through the evacuation.

For the most part, passengers can be reasonably relied upon to act with a high, if not surprising, level of sensibility and altruism. Some heroics may occur, but are not to be relied upon. Most passengers can be expected to act in a way which is helpful to themselves, individuals and groups, thus enhancing safety and survival.

Human nature, again, is largely unpredictable. Even in highly stressful or threatening environments, people very often respond to emergencies rationally and even altruistically. The instinctive panic reactions are simply not the historical norm, particularly in aircraft. Again, the potential for panic should not be overlooked.

Altruistic and affiliative inter-personal response can be reasonably expected to emerge as more of a norm. For lack of a better term, call it the 'legacy effect.' People have a sense of their own responsibility in terms of their personal history; possibly their fear of accountability. Hence, even while suffering strong fear and a sense of helplessness, people will quite often act appropriately to protect both themselves and others. This is almost an 'expected' response in the case of 'primary groups;' family and very close friends - with strong associated emotional or social bonds. Altruistic response tends to occur most commonly in such groups, but is not in any way limited to these groups. For example, those with any image to espouse or protect, such as a deadheading captain or uniformed serviceman can be reasonably expected to react in such a fashion.

The dominant indicators suggest that threat makes pre-existing or potential bonds grow stronger. Obviously, in the case of a family unit, the goal will be to congregate and survive, together. Thus, these family members will typically make every effort to respond to the benefit of the family, as a unit. If family members are separated, they can be expected to make a quick effort to rejoin, if necessary, delaying escape until all members are present, or otherwise known to be safe.

Altruistic behavior is subject to debate as being a predominantly positive response. Depending on the specifics of any situation, it can be questioned whether this response helps or hinders safety and survival. It may reasonably be expected that family member separation, particularly in the event of parent-child separation, response will be dramatically faster. Conversely, any search for the missing individual(s) could conceivably delay personal escape, possibly that of others.

The onset phase can be equally difficult for the crew and passengers acceptance. However, the evacuation phase has the specific demand for the crews' training and performance to maintain psychological balance. This balance is a function of both training, and any similar previous experience. The crewmember mental and emotional reaction must be superior to that of the passengers.

If crewmembers are not reasonably aware of the probable or potential experiences and any responses of their passengers, a dangerous event can deteriorate into an unnecessary catastrophe.

It goes without saying that the flight crews must have a good knowledge of the location and use of emergency equipment, doors, slides and even life rafts, if appropriate. Additionally, there must be a comparable knowledge of the evacuation routes, procedures, defined stations and expected individual duties. The unfortunate fact is that beyond initial training, typically, precious little is subsequently done with respect to conducting actual drills. Consequently individual initiative is most often required to dynamically expand the primary knowledge in preparation for practical application of emergency procedures.

The normal passenger safety briefing is vitally important, providing the minimum knowledge of what is expected of passengers should an actually emergency occur. That briefing is the point when the interaction between passengers and crew begins.

The pre-departure safety briefing verbiage is quite scientifically chosen. While its intent is commendable, there is also the risk of cynicism at some of the "PR" language. For example, "... in the event of a water landing.." Unfortunately, judgment is all too often highly subjective. Such language might be appropriate for a domestic flight. However in the current environment of twin-engine ocean crossings, a more thorough safety briefing is much more appropriate. Sadly, marketing forces (PR) usually preclude such prudent safety measures.

Remembering that preparation makes the difference in an emergency, any valid questions, or overt lack of information, creates insecurity. If the passengers are not reasonably informed, the 'leaders' among them will make a positive effort to gain the wanted or required information. Such a response could consume valuable crew time and effort, which would otherwise be better invested in preparation.

Even informed people will differ in their capacity to absorb or retain the information. The individual passenger's attention may become diverted by 'denial' resulting on their attention getting focused on irrelevant matters or details, defeating otherwise good communication. In any case, clear information, guidance and instruction will still be required for the individual to decide on a realistic course of action. Thus, crew effectiveness is imperative. Likewise, distractions such as the needs of a family, may negate information. Assuming that time is available, reinforcement is required to the end.

If people are left to guess as to what is actually in progress, they may feel an unbearable uncertainty. Feeling that they have been abandoned to their own devices, they may attach themselves to their first (probably false) guess as to their reality and their self-prescribed solution to the point of eventually inadvertently effecting their own death.

An additional risk is found in the tendency of some passengers to repeatedly revise their perception of the situation and its potential, consequently their decided course of action. The result may be an inconsistent, mistaken or ever-expanding perception of the situation. In turn, these passengers could either act as an interference at any point or require valuable time and attention; possibly assistance.

Vacillating passengers may also become highly suggestible by others in distress. In some cases, passengers might become suspicious of the motives of others, including the crew, or view others, particularly the crew as being directly responsible for the emergency. Possibly, the crew may find themselves subjected to an inappropriate but infectious anger of passengers.

Again, panic is unlikely to be a problem among airline passengers unless certain overwhelming events or conditions prevail. Often the first passenger reaction will be to seek family, friends and belongings. Naturally, parents will seek and protect their children. Families can be expected to seek their membership, attempting to stay together. The natural tendency of those in crisis is to move toward both familiar (trusted) people and places. Some passengers will try to evacuate via a well-known route and exit or entry point. The tendency for people to want to leave by an otherwise obvious route leaves the crew (or surviving 'leaders') with the burden of getting passengers to move in the direction of actual safety.

Beyond exiting the aircraft, it will also be required to get the passengers a safe distance and away from the aircraft and any rescue vehicles. In many cases, flight crews are not instructed to aggressively assemble the passengers in a desirable location. The post-evacuation phase is extremely important, as many passengers may require immediate medical care. The passengers may also need to be 'protected from themselves.' This could involve everything from stopping a passenger from smoking, with jet fuel spilled all around, to keeping dazed passengers from wandering into the path of a vehicle or into a river.

An evacuation also takes time. During the evacuation phase, passengers require the confidence that someone is taking care of them or enabling them. The potential range of responses leaves the crew to cope with anything from giving simple directions, helping passengers frozen with fear, to preventing other passengers from taking a wrong initiative. Professionalism and tradition leave most to expect crewmembers to act heroically. However, the primary focus must be on the preparation and actual management and strong leadership throughout the actual event.


AFTERMATH

The aftermath of an emergency is basically the very end of an emergency. This phase carries the qualification that everyone is now clear of the direct effects of the emergency. The aftermath can be as simple as the passing of a situation with the relieved realization that the potential crisis did not evolve into actual danger or harm. In such a situation the crewmembers can 'stand down,' reverting to normal duties, while the passengers can safely resume their former activities - the emergency has passed.

Possibly, a full-blown crisis has occurred and evolved into an accident. However, in the 'aftermath,' the situation is essentially 'over;' it is not expected to cause any more damage or harm. Passengers and crew been evacuated from areas of immediate danger.

During the early stages of the aftermath phase (depending upon the severity of the emergency), a gradual return to normal reasoning is expected, with the realization that the incident or accident or incident no longer carries any direct threat.

It is expected or hoped that the flight crew, in their training and their experience, are the first realize that the situation has changed, being able to announce that the basic emergency is over, providing supplemental information and care. However, there will be those events extending the emergency with secondary threats or a new danger. For example, a successful evacuation into freezing cold or a ditching in a storm.

The crew or spontaneous leaders will then be faced with the requirement of convincing the passengers as to the 'new' real-time reality. Depending on the situation this could be either simple or complex, depending on the severity of the incident or accident, this task might be a separate challenge.

There is always the chance that some passengers may resist pacification, still feeling insecure. Whether the feeling is appropriate or not, the passengers may still feel threatened and continuing to act as though some immediate danger is still present. It is unlikely that any great percentage of passengers will share such feelings.

A strange aspect of human behavior needs to be illustrated to crewmembers; there may be a desire displayed by some passengers to, 'return to the scene.'

Looking again to structural fire studies, it was observed that slightly more than 40% of the escapees felt an urge to re-enter the building - while the fire was ongoing. Only a small percentage of those questioned cited any desire to either fight the fire or engage in any life saving. Explanations lacking, it is a phenomenon worth being alert to.

In a post-accident scenario, passengers may need to be either counseled as the result of intentions expressed to not to give in to such impulses. The immediate need is to collect the passengers in a safe area, clear of any rescue or fire-fighting teams.

Some emergencies are safely dealt with in flight, allowing the safe continuation of the flight or a diversion to an intermediate airport. Once the emergency has been resolved, the flight attendants, in particular may be required to take extra time and effort to convince some passengers that the danger is in fact over, and that they can safely return to their former activities. Some passengers may remain extremely uncertain or even suspicious, possibly blaming the crew for the event and their current predicament - even if all are then safe. An example would be a severe turbulence encounter with injuries. Often, the crewmembers are quickly threatened with complaint letters, official complaints or personal lawsuits.

Obviously, the crew must also be prepared with the more serious in-flight events, as well. The event may create a more serious aftermath, following the emergency. This is particularly true if passengers or crew have been injured or possibly killed and radical damage sustained by the aircraft. In serious 'in-flight' situations, the passengers may have to be moved from their original locations to another area of the aircraft. An example would be an uncontained engine failure with damage to the fuselage or the interior itself. However, most serious accidents are 'on airport' accidents, often resulting in shattered aircraft. Thus, external sheltering is more viable.

In bone fide accidents, evacuation is normally the first priority after the aircraft has come to a rest. The potential for the situation to deteriorate will depend on a number of largely unpredictable factors.

Any physiological effects, including personal injury, burns or exposure to the elements play a major role in the passengers' ability to function or survive. It must be remembered that conditions such as shock or hypothermia are responsible for a large percentage of deaths in aircraft disasters.

Researchers have long acknowledged that there is also the psychological or emotional threat. In any survival scenario, there is a terrific multi-facetted personal challenge. In addition to the physical survival, it is accepted that the individual's psychological and emotional response plays an additional and important role. There is no shortage of accounts where people have remained viable and survived when their physical experience and condition should have otherwise resulted in death.

A key part of survival is the classic 'will to live.' Maritime accounts from the Titanic to Naval and Merchant Marine losses during World War II describe many deaths not being entirely due to trauma or exposure. Many accounts clearly indicate that personal attitudes or psychology have been highly instrumental in many of the deaths at sea. The strongest seem to have been the older persons seamen, with pre-existing survival experience.

Thus, the emotional experiences and responses during this phase of an emergency must be explored.


REACTIONARY PERIOD

Following the emergency outcome, there will initially be a variable time period of shock, denial and withdrawal for some of the passengers and crew, even for those who were fully and highly functional throughout the emergency. The reactions to the emergency will vary from the extreme of zero impact to serious reactions.

The period of shock or withdrawal can be healthy, allowing passengers and crew to keep calm, allowing mind and body to recover. The period of shock is normally followed by a gradual return to a state of full awareness, with the expression of constructive or appropriate emotions and a normal level of functioning. This will be true for the large majority of people.

There may be, however, a profound and counter-productive reaction. For the most part, the reaction will be in proportion to the perceived threat. If the threat was potentially violent or otherwise life threatening - particularly where fire was involved, the reactions can be rather extreme. Some may act very passively and compliantly with obvious retardation of awareness. There may be an emotional void, a quest for sleep or partial amnesia in regard to personal details such as a full name or their address and phone number. Survivors who come face-to-face with the threat of personal injury or death typically experience some degree of shock, becoming partially numb in the mental and emotional sense; they may be unable to help themselves. This is the typical description associated with the term, 'disaster syndrome.'

The degree of mental and emotional withdrawal from the impact of the emergency serves to protect the individual from either the actual extent of the destruction and loss, or from the potential impact. Eventually, it will pass, allowing the individual to return to a more normal level of functioning.

Beyond personal trauma, passengers and crew can reasonably be expected to react to the plight or fate of the passengers, particularly the children, and the crewmembers. Personal injury or the loss of a loved one, friend or colleague can effect an adverse secondary reaction from simple sympathy to personal psychological identification.

There can also be expected a time period between any emotional withdrawal and the return to full awareness. This period may begin with confusion and hyperactivity; possibly nearly hysterical laughing. The reactions during this time may not be appropriate to the situation. People may attend to personal grooming or engage in a cleaning or dawdling 'ritual,' as opposed helping other victims.

With a large number of passengers, there may be an awareness of others and their needs, however, there could also be an unusual degree of social fragmentation. Loose and unstable groups may form without particular purpose, fracturing, and then re-forming.

Some people may actively seek others in worse condition, attempting to either reassure themselves that they have-survived better than expected or to relieve their own identification with the pain of others by engaging in a 'rescue' activity. In extreme cases, which lack leadership, any initiative to form stable groups with a constructive mission may have to come from outside the immediate group or the survivors as a whole. For example, if the accident occurs at a remote location, radio instructions may be received, commanding organization of serious injuries, women & children for the first rescue effort.

Some adults may exhibit a childlike behavior or dependency, becoming immediately dependent on anyone who displays any strength, potential or actual kindness or comfort. Other people may exhibit open guilt feelings for having survived the crash. They may express the personal opinion that they didn't deserve to live, did not perform as they should have, did not do enough or blame themselves for being weak. In such cases, reality will have little effect until they are forced to believe otherwise.

Any family bonds can be expected to override other social ties. Passengers will initially look exclusively for loved ones, or insisting on knowing that they are safe. People separated from loved ones may experience a conflict between their family member role and that of being an immediately needed rescuer / helper. This conflict could render them ineffective, possibly creating a source of conflict.

During the aftermath phase, people transition from confusion, shock, denial or withdrawal through attainment of effective response capability. This period may be brief, however, it can last much longer, perhaps for days or weeks, depending on the individual's trauma, stamina and the magnitude of the emergency. During this period, there may be a random venting of feelings of anger. Upon being rescued, such frustrations may possibly be directed at rescuers. Historically, rescuers are commonly held accountable by the media for their 'slow' response time, based on passenger complaints.

In extreme cases, without appropriate support or the help, these same people may find it difficult to recover to a normal state of mind and may not function effectively for some indeterminate period. Apathy and despair may continue, expressed in either overt or veiled behavior. The effects of the trauma could eventually lead to emotional and psychological breakdown to the extreme of suicide. It is also certain that a significant percentage of passengers will experience elation, possibly euphoria, in their survival.

The crewmembers attending to the passengers should be aware of the potential for such extremes. The effect may be sudden or gradual. Whatever the underlying cause, the expression may be an overt act or passive, for example, a diabetic not citing an awareness of his/her need for insulin.

The aftermath of an emergency may be as difficult for the passengers to deal with as any of the other emergency phases. However, there are healthy responses and reactions, thoughts and feelings which help people return to the desired level of appropriate functioning. Any positive responses should be openly praised and encouraged with the hope or intention of establishing such positive responses as a group norm. The important aspect of such reactions is that there is the time and means available to deal with the problem.


PASSENGER RESPONSE

The induced stress of the emergency may continue taking its toll from elevated anxiety levels to what might be termed the 'adrenalin effect.' This is particularly true in events which do not have a well-defined termination point, leading to seemingly unending uncertainty.

It's natural for passengers to take in the overall picture, including the obvious destruction and any form of loss from personal belongings to loved ones. In their own experience of having faced death and injury, passengers will individually move on to the next phase.

Depending on the individual's makeup, some passengers may experience increased anxiety levels. Whether one cares to relate to the anxiety behavior in terms of 'ordinary' anxiety, or attribute behavior to adrenalin, the resulting energy will require release. In the aftermath phase, the emotional release will begin with a sense of increased safety or security, as the passengers realize the recent history as being non-imaginary; some passengers may continue to be stunned, appearing numb.

To address another probable reality, there may be a second rush to use personal cell phones. There may also be an associated anxiety or hysterical near-panic by those who don't have cell phones, essentially attacking those who appear to be having results. Again, this may be uncontrollable.

Unfortunately, it may be necessary for the crew to join in the fray to use any cell phone capability in an attempt to facilitate rescue and survival. Hence, the crew may have to secret themselves to keep from being distracted or possibly mobbed, while using the cell phones. It might be necessary also for at least the senior surviving crewmember to commandeer a cell phone. However it is far more likely that other crewmembers or the passengers will volunteer a cell phone.

Eventually almost all the passengers will gravitate toward regaining control of their senses, reacting by engaging in survival activities, rescue activity and comforting others.

It will be important for any crew of leaders to take a compassionate, yet firm, leadership role, which constructively directs activities and supports morale, diminishes any anger and activates the element of hope, if not gratification in the form of returning to normalcy.

The leadership function will require situational control, which will additionally require solicitation of a variety of information with the ability to put the remaining situation into a perspective easy for the passengers to understand. This information may require more effort on the passengers' part. As soon as possible, the crew should organize people to search for survivors, then survival resources.

The most effective way to get and maintain such control is to rely on the passengers will to survive. This may require blatantly taking advantage of their emotions, whether their will to survive is based on the desire to rejoin with loved ones, the seeking of the opposite experience of pleasure or escape; possibly for the element of revenge on those the individual perceives as responsible for the emergency.

The passengers must be inspired to bring their focus on survival, as a group, as well as individuals. It may become necessary to accuse them of being selfish, inspiring able individuals to actively assist others in the process of protecting themselves. As best able, teamwork should be established where each is rendering mutual assistance, comparing information and sharing pertinent advice or any resources.

In this process, the mental and emotional focus is vitally important. Asking passengers to rehearse their emergent post-accident activities is a powerful, and typically welcome, motivator. The underlying key is to bring constructive emotions into play by getting the passengers to focus on people who are important to them, particularly family members such as wives, husbands, children and parents. The choice of verbiage will be important; for example, "Just think how wonderful it's going to feel when your kids throw their arms around your neck & give you that big bear hug." Negative motivation may be necessary, "Do you want to orphan your kids, or listen to me??"

There will also be those who are strongly religious or have abruptly become so during the course of the emergency. Regardless of personal beliefs, the spiritual energy can be a valuable resource as well. When the situation becomes reasonably stabilized, prayer can be a very constructive release, as well as being source of inspiration and reassurance. Religious concepts can also be employed in the form of an appeal in a seemingly hopeless situation, even for those who would not consider themselves as being religious.

An appeal such as, "C'mon folks, God didn't let us get this far, just to quit on each other," can be the needed inspiration necessary for survival in the aftermath.

With any degree of assured safety and stability in the aftermath, physical and mental rest will be vitally important. Any measure of rest allows passengers to regain energy, permitting the passengers and crew to emerge some time later as being physically and mentally refreshed, ready to focus their restored energy toward support and survival. Obviously, it should be assured that the attainment of any such rest is not accommodating a threatening condition such as shock, depression or hypothermia.

Any children should be carefully attended to, as they are highly vulnerable. Often, they will have stronger physical stamina in their youth; however, their limited experience will strongly be reflected in their response to an emergency or a full-blown disaster, and the associated aftermath. Normally, children are highly protected with an idealistic set of norms. Emergencies and accidents take them a greater mental and emotional distance from their expected safety norms. Accidents can be particularly brutal for them, attacking any idealism, particularly their seemingly automatic trust in adults. Any children should be shielded from as much 'ugliness' of the accident as possible, despite their natural curiosity. This is especially true with respect to the severely injured or deceased.

When accompanied by parents, children can be expected to mirror the actions of their parents. Fortunately, the parents will often be rational and responsible in the protection of the children. For the most part, unaccompanied children often show very little or no fear. It would seem that they act so as to make their parents proud of them later.

Obviously, as the age of the child increases, they will increasingly emulate adult behavior. One of the key behaviors of children, which must be watched, is their curiosity, even of threat or the unknown. It should also be remembered that impulsive children move rapidly.

In dealing with the aftermath of an emergency, particularly an accident, the determining factor will be effective and strong leadership, just as at any other point during the emergency. Decisive leadership is required, however, it must also reasonably contain the element of compassion to maintain the required morale, diminish any frustration or anger, and to counteract or reverse any sense of hopelessness.

In order to achieve that result, it will also be important to keep a positive light on the situation, emphasizing any positive aspects, avoiding any negativity.

Beyond passenger welfare and reaction, it is equally vital to consider the plight of the crewmembers. They are ideally well trained for emergencies and accidents, however, it must not be forgotten that the pilots and flight attendants will be under greater pressure, given their roles of responsibility; ultimately, their accountability.


CREW RESPONSE

The pilots and flight attendants can also be expected to experience a high level of tension and urgency when coping with the emergency and the passengers; whether during the emergency or in the aftermath. It should also be acknowledged that the crew is more prone to serious injury or death, due to their location and surroundings on the aircraft. Any crew injuries, particularly head injuries can strongly affect their response. There may be unique or extreme circumstances where a member of the crew is required to be removed from authority due to injury or post-accident trauma.

The individual crewmember's feelings can be controlled and redirected through a focused effort to not become overwhelmed by the events themselves and what could be new and unexpected responsibilities, as well as the potential accountability.

In the process of gaining that control, the crewmembers will need to gain a grasp the overall picture, resisting the temptation to isolate small portions of the situation.

It will be important for the crew, as a whole, to develop a plan, keeping it as simple but effective as possible. In that planning, they will need to break down the requirements into manageable tasks, setting clear and achievable results, while avoiding the temptation to do too much, instead, acting as team members. Of greatest importance will be the prioritization of tasks.

Each crewmember must accept their individual limitations, realizing that one person cannot achieve all. The captain will probably have the greatest difficulty with this aspect.

Survivor interviews indicate that those who have successfully managed an emergency have had a natural tendency to both attend to their own requirements and effectively attend to the requirements of others. Obviously, prioritization is a key function in this process.

In the aftermath, one of the crews' requirements will be to conduct a roll call, so as to account for passengers and crew, establish safety, a line of authority, and to ensure that passengers and crew are clear as to who is in charge. It will be important to illuminate the fact that at least the crewmembers are sufficiently trained, and establish in the minds of the passengers that they can have some degree of confidence in the crew.

As an additional function of the roll call, it will offer the means to identifying those capable of effective action, assigning the competent and able-bodied assistants to help and support those in need, particularly those at the point of collapsing.

Obviously, it may be necessary to identify any crew or passenger skills and knowledge. Qualified passengers may not necessarily volunteer. After identifying the human resources, it will be necessary to put those assets to work. The side benefit in constructively enabling individuals is the benefit of their being involved in some form of activity, which requires concentration, facilitating their mental and emotional recovery.

It is important to improvise a means of identifying the surviving individuals and recording any injuries; obvious and suspected. If possible, it will also be vitally important to identify any possible treatment and decide who will administer the needed care. Time and resources permitting, it will also be necessary to identify the missing or those known to be deceased. Wile the flight attendants will be furnished a passenger manifest, that might get lost in the course of the emergency; a hand-written list might be necessary.

The roll call will also serve as a simple method to establish the mental state of the individual. If a person can only remember their name, they may be in more dire need of assistance than someone who can remember more. Conversely, it is likely that an individual who can remember more will recover more rapidly if assigned a task, even if nothing more than talking to other passengers, identifying their needs, or supporting or boosting their morale.

Personal contact will be important, if the situation permits. Personal interest in any form will serve as a form of reassurance to the individual. If they are recognized as an individual, with a name and a personal role or with a family history, they will respond to the interest as a form of caring, with the probable response that they will stop thinking exclusively of themselves simply as a 'victim,' transitioning to the role of a 'helper.'

Interpersonal contact will be received as a form of relief. Simply talking to someone is often a timely and vital movement toward trauma recovery. However, awareness should be maintained for any sensitive issues. If any are discovered, it is unwise to explore these too deeply. In the trauma of the emergency, survivors may be simply be stunned by events, but they may also be hypersensitive, as well. This is particularly true in a case where a survivor is keenly aware of the actual or highly probable death of a loved one in the accident.

Task assignment can be highly therapeutic as well as practical, as an active role assignment may grant passengers, in particular, their first chance to perform their first independent action since the onset of the emergency. This can be as simple as giving their name and that of their present family to a crewmember.

If actual rescue is delayed, roll calls should be repeated, so as to monitor subsequent events, including subsequent incapacitations. Repeated roll calls will reinforce the element of concern or care until rescue is effected. This monitoring also assures the best chance of identifying adverse physical or psychological problems. In unique circumstances, there may be the possibility of people 'adventuring,' becoming lost or risking injury.

Despite actual immediate needs, volunteers should be accepted whenever possible, remembering that rejection can be unnecessarily damaging to the individual. Rejection can have an adverse impact, which affects the general atmosphere. Even an injured or immobilized passenger might have sufficient stamina, which can be effective if in no other form than that than being a caring listener. Maintaining a general 'can do' mentality is important. Any periods of coincident or enforced inactivity make leave people feeling unwanted or useless. Such brings the risk that they will revert to focusing on their own plight, rationalizing that it is worse than it actually is. This could also have the dangerous effect of undermining their will to contribute or to survive the emergency.


POST TRAUMATIC STRESS DISORDER

This is an aspect of trauma and stress, which should NOT be underestimated. It is a very real phenomenon, which is not merely the 'stuff of personal injury attorneys.'

If an emergency is not serious or is quickly resolved, events and lives should very quickly return to normal, without significant effects. The crewmembers and passengers can resume their normal activities or, if they have safely deplaned in a normal fashion, the majority of passengers and crew will immediately get on with a normal life. The event may seem extremely minor, if not an interesting adventure.

Conversely, if the event was serious, matters will probably be quite different and rather unpredictable. Most passengers and crew will have a keen realization as to the full extent of what physically happened to them. The realization will range from personal injuries, the loss of loved ones and the loss of personal possessions.

In a significant percentage of cases, some will be affected to the extreme of frequent and vivid 'flashbacks' - recalling events with sufficient clarity as to re-live them. It is also possible for some to be affected to the extreme of psychiatric illness, including random anxiety, depression and persistent nightmares, with a wide range of associated disorders.

Anger and despair are not uncommon among survivors. The chief difficulty of survivors is the knowledge or means to deal with the resulting feelings. Venting anger is a common result and a healthy and effective means of dealing with the feelings. Obviously, such feelings must be directed so as to not inflict any harm, including damage to the morale of others.

If the individual's only option is to direct anger at a large organization, such as the airline or travel agency, the result can be long-term frustration, lacking resolution. In consequence, the hostile feelings may not have either a clear target or a probable chance of relief or ultimate resolution. Hence, the survivor's frustration may become very long term.

Whenever possible, humor should be illustrated as a form of therapy, even if it is necessary to resort to sardonic humor.

The post-trauma stress is far worse for the crew, as they will probably not only be denied the opportunity to relieve their feelings, but corporate politics could also dictate their being silenced to an extreme, upon threat of termination, possibly legal action by the FAA in the case of the pilots. Crewmembers may find themselves the subject of seemingly unending investigative interviews, including court subpoenas.

For the unfamiliar, the FAA maintains its own 'kangaroo court' system, which has been successful in denying pilots and even air carriers the ordinarily expected Constitutional 'due process.' The FAA is famous for arbitrarily destroying pilots' lives for the simple fact that they have the power to do so. While pilot error is commonly cited, the case isn't always valid; a fact well known as an unpredictable liability to pilots. Small air carriers have experienced the same treatment, having their Operating Certificate revoked for purely political reasons.

The knowledge, skills and decisions of the pilots and flight attendants will determine how they handle an emergency, from the warning phase through the aftermath. Their personal resources and decisions will play a major role in how they and the survivors live or suffer the rest of their lives.

The aftermath phase is essentially the termination of the immediate crisis situation. Either an emergency has been properly handled or an accident has been successfully averted. Ideally, the original causative or contributing factors are no longer probable to cause any injury, damage or death.

Ideally, the passengers are able to quickly return to normal activities such as eating a meal, reading a magazine or watching a movie. Some passengers may remain concerned, requiring additional reassurance or support of the pilots and flight attendants before accepting the problem as having been adequately dealt with; being certain that it is improbable that it, or similar events, will recur. In such events, information and reassurance are the essential component to effect passenger comfort and faith.

Conversely, if passenger concern is discounted, such will lead to a sense of abandonment, the pilots and flight attendants will then have a radically different task in the aftermath phase, even for a relatively simple event. Improper handling of the early phases of an emergency will result in the pilots and flight attendants having an extended role in the long-term welfare of the passengers.

In an extended emergency, the pilots and flight attendants often experience a greater period of difficulty and trauma. The crew is far better qualified to ascertain the probability of injury or death. Worse, any confusion or ambiguity will first be known by them. As a result, the toll of the emotional and psychological impact will be increased.

During a life-threatening emergency, many go through the stereotyped period of taking stock of their lives. Often this action can amplify the perceived severity of the event. Among passengers, some may become too shocked and stunned for any coherent thought processes and appropriate response or action. Any whom are separated from their family and friends on the aircraft can encounter an almost unbearable concern and uncertainty as to their safety. The stress of the situation results in the need for emotional release. Even under stress, most will snap back to relatively normal functioning, attending to their own welfare and survival, as well as the welfare and survival of others.

It cannot be emphasized enough that the crucial difference is in the constant information, support and leadership of pilots and flight attendants. During any period of emotional and psychological adjustment, from any degree of shock and any associated withdrawal, to full awareness, the individual's ability to maintain or regain effective control over events is critical. This is true, not only with respect to accepting and coping with the more immediate and short term difficulties, but also for the long-term welfare of all those involved.


EVACUATION STUDIES

Ideally, an emergency will be resolved with a safe landing, allowing the passengers to disembark through a jetway. Unfortunately, many incidents and accidents result in a full-fledged emergency evacuation. Few events are as crucial as an evacuation, as seconds quickly become critical in a life-death scenario.

Historically, only evacuations involving serious accidents have been examined in various studies, as opposed to including evacuations arising from incidents. Most studies also fail to address successful evacuations. Therefore, these studies did not identify what procedures and equipment were either effective or ineffective in evacuations.

While research and studies have been conducted on aircraft evacuations, most have provided insight into specific factors, such as crewmember training and passenger behavior, which affected the outcome of problematic evacuations.

As a consequence, little is known about the incident-related evacuations, which can provide insight into how successful evacuations can be performed and which can also identify safety deficiencies before serious accidents do occur. Most studies are retrospective in their analysis. The majority of the studies account for individual accident related evacuations, as opposed to identifying characteristics from a collective analysis of representative evacuations.

Until recently, research on aircraft evacuations has not explored some of the most basic issues as to how often commercial aircraft are evacuated, how many people are injured and how these injuries occur. Research also fails to identify the background causes in evacuation-related fatalities.


The NTSB examined the following safety issues in their June, 2000 evacuation study:

* Certification issues related to airplane evacuation

* The effectiveness of evacuation equipment

* The adequacy of air carrier and rescue / fire fighting guidance and procedures related to evacuations, and

* Communication issues related to evacuations. The study also compiled some general statistics on evacuations, including the number of evacuations and the types and number of passenger injuries incurred during evacuations.

As a result of the June 2000 study, the NTSB issued their set of safety recommendations and reiterated lingering safety recommendations to the Federal Aviation Administration. That study, however, only used a core of evacuations spanning two years.

To illustrate the seriousness of evacuations, as a whole, the following accidents are used -

February 1, 1991, a B-737 landed and collided with a commuter aircraft on the runway at Los Angeles International Airport. All the passengers on the commuter plane died in the initial impact. However, none of the passengers on the B-737 died as a result of the impact. Following the impact, 19 passengers died from smoke inhalation, while 1 died from burn injuries. Out of the 19 smoke-inhalation fatalities, 10 died while attempting to use the right over-wing exit. The NTSB discovered two factors which caused brief, but deadly delays - passengers' delay in opening the exit, and a scuffle between two passengers. While the impact deaths were a foregone conclusion, the smoke inhalation / burn deaths were probably preventable.

June 1, 1999, MD-80 crash, in Little Rock, Arkansas, resulting in 11 fatalities, 45 serious and 65 minor injuries. Two of the fatalities were the result of smoke inhalation in the rear of the aircraft; while a second passenger died 16 days later of burn injuries suffered while evacuating from an over-wing exit. The injuries in that accident included smoke inhalation, burns, and fractures. The final NTSB report is pending.

These accidents illuminate only a few of the safety issues related to aircraft evacuations. In addition to accident investigations, independent studies by the NTSB, the Transportation Safety Board of Canada, the British CAA, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), and other independent researchers examined specific factors, which affect successful aircraft evacuations. Although these studies provided insight into specific factors, such as crewmember training and passenger behavior, which affect the outcome of evacuations, they had several limitations.

In many studies, researchers did not examine successful evacuations; therefore, they were not always able to discuss what equipment and procedures worked well during evacuations.

Only evacuations following accidents were examined and not evacuations arising from incidents. As a result, little has been learned from incident-related evacuations, which can provide insight into how successful evacuations can be performed and which can also identify safety deficiencies before serious accidents occur.

Each of the studies was a retrospective analysis of accident evacuations. This approach limited the researchers to information collected during the original investigation rather than collecting consistent information on a set of evacuations.

As early as 1974, the NTSB began examining the aircraft evacuation issues, making appropriate recommendations to the FAA to increase passenger safety during evacuations.

A 1985 NTSB study examined air carrier over-water emergency equipment and procedures. In that study, the NTSB focused on 16 survivable water contact accidents, which occurred between 1959 and 1984. In those incidents, most were found to be inadvertent, occurring without warning. They involved substantial aircraft damage, rapid cabin flooding and a high chance of injury. That study led to improvements in life preserver design, packaging, accessibility, and ease of donning. The study also produced crew post-crash survival training; and water rescue plans for airports near water.

In another 1985 study, the NTSB conducted a review of the presentation methods used by carriers to present passengers with safety information. That study was a systematic review of the safety information content and the methods used to convey safety information to the passengers.

The second study considered the merits and shortcomings of the verbal briefings, demonstrations, the safety card content, and the videotaped briefings. The study was based on an analysis of 21 accident investigations in which passenger safety information briefings were considered to be a factor influencing passenger survival. In response to the study and the NTSB recommendations, the FAA also conducted research to establish the minimum level of acceptable comprehension of the passenger safety cards. Strangely, the matter of 'optimal' comprehension is more appropriate.

In 1992, the NTSB completed a special investigation report concerning flight attendant training. That investigation illuminated a serious lack of guidance to FAA inspectors in the oversight of flight attendant training, particularly in regard to flight attendant recurrent training. The investigation also identified a lack of flight attendant knowledge of emergency procedures and equipment. The study also identified the fact that most air carriers did not employ standard locations for emergency equipment. The concerning aspect was that the flight attendants were not limited in the number of airplane type qualifications, creating confusion.

That report remains relevant to the latest NTSB study, as many of the same issues are still open, particularly the fact that many air carriers still do not perform evacuation drills during recurrent training, and the carriers still are not required by the FAA to conduct such training.

In 1987, as a result of a fatal B-737 fire in Manchester, England, the English Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) commissioned a series of studies on cabin safety issues. The study examined passenger behavior in aircraft emergencies, focusing on the influences of the aircraft cabin configuration on the rate at which passengers could evacuate.

Various aircraft cabin configurations were evaluated with respect to competitive passenger behavior, simulating reasonable behavior in life-threatening accident scenarios. Orderly conditions such as aircraft certification testing were also studied. The results of those studies indicated a minimum bulkhead passageway width of 30 inches. The studies also indicated a minimum distance between over-wing exit row seats of 13 to 25 inches. The distance between seats was measured from the rear of the seat back of the forward row and the forward edge of the seat cushion immediately behind.

NOTE:

Over-wing exits are typically designated as Type III exits, defined as,'... rectangular openings of not less that 20 inches wide by 36 inches high with a step up from inside the airplane of not more than 20 inches and a step down outside the plane of not more than 27 inches.'

The CAA studies also examined the effects of over-wing exit door panel weight and the seating configuration, relative to passengers' physical ability to operate the Type III over-wing exits. The studies indicated the need for a 50% weight reduction in the over-wing hatch weight, as well as minimum available seat space to significantly reduce the exit operation time. While not politically correct (in the USA), the benefit of a reduced hatch weight and an increase in the seat space was demonstrated to be more significant for females than males.

The FAA and the CAA jointly commissioned another part of those studies, exploring the influence of the flight attendants on passenger evacuation during an emergency in both competitive and cooperative models. The results of that portion illustrated that both the crewmember performance and the number of flight attendants significantly influenced the evacuation rate and the passengers' behavior. That portion of the studies also demonstrated that evacuation times were faster through the forward exits than the rear exits.

In their detailed investigations, the NTSB considered various carrier documents and procedures:

1. The safety briefing cards

2. Aircraft cabin diagrams

3. Flight deck crew manuals, pertaining to emergency evacuations

4. Flight deck crew training materials and syllabi (initial and recurrent), pertaining to emergency evacuations

5. Flight attendant operating manual materials pertaining to emergency evacuations

6. Flight attendant training materials and syllabi (initial and recurrent), pertaining to emergency evacuations

7. Flight deck crew evacuation checklists

8. Flight attendant evacuation checklists

9. Flight deck crew and flight attendant statements from actual evacuations.


EVENTS THAT LED TO THE EMERGENCY

In an NTSB survey of passengers who had been involved in an evacuation, the reported competitive behaviors included pushing, climbing over the seats and disputes among other passengers. Overall, the survey indicated 12 percent of the passengers reported that they climbed over seats, while 20 percent reported observing someone climbing seats. However, the survey included over 40 incidents, with a wide range of severity in those incidents. In one case, 80 percent indicated that they climbed over seats.


AIRCRAFT RESCUE AND FIRE-FIGHTING RESPONSE (ARFF)

In the U.S., Federal regulations determine the size of ARFF support at each certificated airport. Incidents/accidents are relayed via the air traffic control (ATC) tower "crash phone." The response time for the typical event is approximately 2 minutes. Beyond basic fire fighting, ARFF personnel assist passengers in evacuating the airplane in cases by opening doors, helping passengers out of exits, helping passengers at the bottom of evacuation slides, directing passengers away from the aircraft, and treating injured passengers and crewmembers.


FAA REQUIREMENTS FOR EVACUATION DEMONSTRATIONS

Evacuation demonstrations are required by the FAA to evaluate the emergency evacuation capabilities of airplanes and operators. The FAA requires these tests to be conducted by manufacturers of airplanes, if the aircraft contains 44 or more passenger seats. The FAA requires air carriers to conduct a modified evacuation demonstration on each type of airplane in their fleet, which has 44 or more passenger seats, to satisfy their operating certificate requirements.


MANUFACTURER'S TYPE CERTIFICATION REQUIREMENTS

The FAA may require aircraft manufacturers to perform full-scale evacuation demonstrations for type certification for new airplanes, and also for derivative models of currently certificated aircraft for a unique cabin configuration, or when a significant number of passenger seats have been added.

Under the requirements of FAR 25, a full-scale demonstration simulates an emergency evacuation of a full complement of passengers, deplaning through half the required number emergency exits, under dark-of-night conditions. A trained crew will direct the evacuation. The passenger complement is required to meet certain age/gender specifications. The requirement is for all passengers and crew to evacuate the aircraft and be on the ground in 90 seconds or less.

The manufacturer's full-scale demonstration establishes that certain operating requirements can be met by all operators of the airplane type. For example, the number of seats on the aircraft used for the demonstration, dictates the maximum number allowable on any subsequent aircraft of the same type. The interior configuration cannot be significantly different from the aircraft used for the demonstration. Additionally, the number and position of the flight attendants within the cabin, as well as the associated training program cannot be unilaterally altered by the individual operators. If a manufacturer or operator wants to change any of these parameters, they must appeal to the FAA, and the FAA may require the manufacturer to perform another full-scale or partial evacuation demonstration to show that the same level of safety is maintained.

To be brief, the FAA has incrementally liberalized the evacuation standards to a dangerous degree by allowing the substitution of data, as opposed to relying on actual full-scale demonstrations. While injury to participants has been cited as the reason, an increase in the risk factor has resulted through non-detection of problems such as training deficiencies and equipment failures. Such policy changes enhance profits, while increasing the risk to the public. It is moot that such injuries are an indicator that major safety issues need to be addressed, as opposed to minimizing or eliminating the demonstrations. In a similar fashion, if the injuries are significant, then it follows that such demonstrations should be eliminated from the initial training of air carriers.

The FAA also formed the ARAC (Aviation Rulemaking and Advisory Committee), a group of industry and government representatives convened by the FAA, allegedly to facilitate the FAA's rulemaking process. The group is assigned to examine issues pertinent to a particular area of concern and developing recommendations for advisory material and/or revisions to current regulations. The ARAC, while well intended, serves as more of a delay mechanism, or an interim pacifier, than an effective safety body.

The NTSB illustrates that while full-scale demonstrations have been criticized for the potential danger to the passenger-participants, the only published research on injuries to such participants indicates that most injuries incurred in the demonstrations are minor, although serious injuries do occur.

The NTSB continues to remind the FAA that full-scale demonstrations provide an empirical method for identifying strengths and weaknesses in the evacuation capabilities of an airplane before it goes into service. Such demonstrations also highlight the strengths and weaknesses in the associated procedures. The NTSB also reminded the FAA that past demonstrations have illuminated inadequate evacuation slide designs and related procedures. The related lessons subsequently remedied designs and procedures, in some cases changing the minimum number and assigned positions of cabin crew.

The FAA will sometimes allow a manufacturer to use data from previous demonstrations, using averages of passenger flow rates through exits, slide preparation times, and exit opening times to calculate the number of passengers that should reasonably be expected to evacuate the airplane within the 90-second time limit. While pragmatic, the 'data' method denies the ability to identify real-world problems, such as design reliability in typical line operations.

The FAA requires the testing of previously untested apparatus, such as a new evacuation slide design. The FAA testing may allow limited tests of such equipment, as opposed to a full-scale demonstration.

In a frightening proposal, researchers have proposed the substitution of computer programs to simulate the dynamics of emergency evacuations. Although the initial reaction by most to such a proposal is typically positive, the history of data corruption must also be considered. Given that 'live' testing data has been appreciably skewed by the FAA to fit economic desires, computer data must be viewed as being that much easier to corrupt.

That is not to say that computer modeling is not valuable as a method to research evacuations. Computer modeling attempts to integrate the complex interactions of passengers and their potential individual behavior with the physical characteristics of the actual or proposed aircraft cabin. It is obviously valuable to design computer algorithms to emulated predictable human characteristics such as age, gender, mobility, and personality. These factors can, to a degree, predict passenger movement within the cabin, considering the physical design of the cabin such as seat pitch (fore-aft distance between seats), aisle width, exit size and availability, smoke, fire, and other personal characteristics, which might influence passenger movements. The computer-modeling proposal obviously argues in terms of time-money economics, as well as safety.

To date, computer modeling is not proposed as an accident analysis method.

Computer modeling is not currently recognized by the FAA as an allowable method of demonstrating evacuations. However, it is generally accepted by that computer modeling will probably have a role in design and possibly evacuation certification in the future.

The unfortunate fact of life is that each incident/accident is different. Thus, the modeling can only effect a 'peak' standard, identifying an ideal performance. Consequently, actual evacuations, controlled or otherwise, remain as the only reliable method of gathering data.


OPERATING CERTIFICATE REQUIREMENTS FOR AIR CARRIERS

The FAA requires an air carrier to provide evidence that its crew-training program sufficiently prepares crewmembers to evacuate passengers in an emergency. The FAA requires air carriers to demonstrate the evacuation capabilities of their flight attendants upon initial startup of the company, or when a new type of aircraft is introduced into service.

Historically, the FAA required a full-scale demonstration. However, over the years, the FAA regulations were modified to allow partial evacuation demonstrations to be substituted as evidence of adequate crewmember training for evacuations. The partial demonstrations differ from a full-scale demonstration in that carefully selected flight attendants are utilized. There are no representative 'passengers' on board the aircraft during the demonstration; only procedures are examined. The FAA requires the procedural demonstrations to be accomplished in 15 seconds or less. The partial demonstration requires the flight attendants to get up from their seats, assess the test conditions, open their assigned exits if appropriate, and inflate the evacuation slides within the allotted time.

The intent of the partial demonstration is to provide evidence that the flight attendant training program effectively prepares the flight attendants to respond to an emergency situation, that the aircraft configuration is functional for an evacuation, and that the equipment is reliable.

With respect to 'commuter' category aircraft, the NTSB is very concerned about the evacuation standards. FAR Parts 25 and 121 only address the requirements for aircraft having 44 or more passenger seats. Currently, it is possible for passengers to unwittingly board an aircraft, which has had no tests of the evacuation capability of the aircraft or its crew.

Under FAR Part 121 the FAA does not require the air carrier to perform a partial evacuation demonstration on aircraft with fewer than 44 passenger seats to obtain an operating certificate.

Aircraft with fewer than 20 seats are not required to operate with flight attendants, requiring the pilots to perform the dual role of flying the aircraft; evacuating passengers when it becomes necessary. Currently, there is no FAA requirement to perform an actual or partial evacuation demonstration on these aircraft in the evacuation training of the pilots. The pilots are only required to demonstrate a passenger briefing. The NTSB has illustrated that as of January 1, 1999, there were 846 airplanes in operation by regional carriers in the USA, which did not require evacuation certification testing. One can only imagine the numerical increase, since that date.

The NTSB has taken the position that the standards for safety should be based on the characteristics of the particular flight operation, as opposed to the seating capacity of the aircraft, citing that passengers on commuter airplanes should be afforded the same regulatory safety protection granted to passengers flying on Part 121 airplanes.

The NTSB appealed to the FAA to revise the Federal Aviation Regulations to require all scheduled passenger service conducted in aircraft with 20 or more passenger seats to be conducted in accordance with the provisions of FAR Part 121. The NTSB also asked the FAA to mandate that all scheduled passenger service conducted in aircraft with 10 to 19 passenger seats be conducted in accordance with Part 121, or its functional equivalent, wherever possible.

The NTSB became highly concerned with the fact that the existing regulations which exempt certain airplanes and operations because of passenger seating capacity is not consistent with the goal of providing "one level of safety" for all passenger-carrying commercial operations.

The NTSB further concluded that all passenger-carrying commercial airplanes and air carriers should be required to demonstrate emergency evacuation capabilities through the manufacturer's evacuation demonstration requirements prescribed in FAR Part 25, regardless of the number of passenger seats on the airplane. The NTSB also pushed the FAA to require all commercial operators to meet the partial evacuation demonstration requirements prescribed in FAR Part 121, regardless of the number of passenger seats on the aircraft.


EXITS

The FAA regulations for emergency exits are also contained in FAR 25. Aircraft exits range from the largest, "Type A" ( floor-level exit door with dimensions of at least 42 inches wide and 72 inches high), to a "Type IV" (over-wing exit with dimensions of at least 19 inches wide and 26 inches high). "Type III" exits are the typical over-wing exits, at least 20 inches wide and 36 inches high.


TYPE III EXITS

The Federal regulations mandate that "the means of opening emergency exits must be simple and obvious and may not require exceptional effort." Crewmembers are required to operate each exit type on their aircraft during initial training and every 2 years thereafter. Obviously, passengers from the general population are not likely to have an occasion to open an airplane emergency exit, prior to an actual evacuation.


ACCESS TO EXITS

Aircraft design factors, such as exit location, aisle width, bulkhead width, and seating density are factors which can influence the passengers' access to exits. Consequently, these factors dictate the success of an actual evacuation. Naturally, these factors are governed by Federal regulations, intended to ensure passenger safety. Actual emergency evacuations have prompted several changes to some of the regulations. For example, a 1985 evacuation of a B-737 in Manchester, England, illustrated passengers getting stuck at a narrow bulkhead and exit rows. This event led to the obvious conclusion that both passageways needed minimum dimensions.

In 1989, the FAA Civil Aeromedical Institute (CAMI) conducted evacuation trials to examine the effects of exit path width - the distance between the forward-most point on an exit row seat and the aft-most point on the seat directly in front of it - on the evacuation rate through Type III over-wing exits. In those trials, participants were required to evacuate through a Type III exit or to open a Type III exit hatch using four different seating conditions:

* a 6-inch unobstructed passageway

* a 10-inch unobstructed passageway

* a 20-inch passageway with 5 inches of the seat encroaching on the exit, and

* a central seat placement with the outboard seat removed

The researchers reported that evacuation times were faster for the seating conditions using the 20-inch passageway and the outboard seat removed than were the evacuation times using the 6-inch passageway.

However, the report indicated that the various exit widths did not affect exit hatch removal time. These CAMI trials, combined with the 1991 B-737 collision accident in Los Angeles, became the basis for the FAA issuing a notice of proposed rulemaking (NPRM) which required air carriers to increase the exit path width in exit rows from 6 inches to 20 inches.

The Manchester fatalities were mysteriously ignored. Industry comments questioning the need for such a substantial change led CAMI to conduct another study in 1992 to examine alternatives to the proposed requirement." In that CAMI study, participants were required to exit through a Type III over-wing exit using four different seating conditions: a 10-inch unobstructed passageway with the seat in front of the exit row displaced forward by 15 10-inch unobstructed passageway with two seats abreast, instead of three seats, a 20-inch passageway with 5 inches of the seat encroaching on the exit, and three 6-inch passageways leading to two exits in which the outboard seats closest to the two exits were removed. The researchers reported that total egress time, hatch opening time, and individual egress times were fastest for evacuations to a single exit using the 20-inch passageway. However, no interim statistics were reported to support the claims that a 20-inch passageway provided for the best performance.

Based on FAA studies and comments received, the FAA initially increased the required exit path width to 20 inches. However, the influence of the Air Transport Association and several air carriers resulted in a reconsideration. In a strange move, the FAA Civil Aero Medical Institute (CAMI) conducted still another series of trials in 1995.

The researchers in the last study did not measure the exit hatch removal times for the various conditions; and unrealistically utilized a flight attendant just forward of the over-wing exit to assist the evacuation trials. There were 30 trial reported in those studies, indicating a possible skewing of data. To be brief, the second set of trials did not reflect the performance reasonably anticipated of a novice evacuee in an actual emergency evacuation. However, based upon the second studies, the FAA granted air carriers an exemption to the 20-inch width requirement. The FAA also issued an NPRM proposing an amendment, allowing a reduction in the exit path width to 13 inches.

Citing the details of the CAMI research, as a basis for the proposed rule change, the NTSB illustrated the obvious flaws of the study - such as unrealistically using a flight attendant at the exit and no consideration given to exit hatch removal times - questioning the validity of the 'research,' relative to an actual emergency evacuation.

Accident severity will also determine how easily passengers can reach an exit. Severe damage to the fuselage, for example, can cause interior furnishings to be dislodged, creating obstacles for passengers attempting to exit an aircraft.

The 1999 MD-80 accident in Little Rock, Arkansas illustrated these concerns. In that crash, the impact caused seats to break free, blocking the aisles. In the front of the passenger cabin, passengers had to find their way around fallen overhead bins and across the severely deformed floor - with the aircraft on fire. Fortunately for the passengers, the impact created several gaps in the fuselage, enabling a route for the passengers to escape.

In a similar situation, a B-727 crashed short of the runway, striking a light structure and the runway threshold. In that accident, a life raft ceiling panel door fell open, blocking the main aisle to the forward entry exit (forward entry door). The flight attendant re-directed the passengers to evacuate through the right side floor level door, over-wing exits, and the left-aft floor level exit.

In accidents studied by the NTSB, passengers and flight attendants indicated that bulkheads, broken interiors, overhead bins and seatbacks were the primary obstacles to the evacuation route. While not described in the specific terms, the list might have easily said, "everything." Passenger interference has already been mentioned.

The studies conducted so far do not distinguish between degrees of aircraft damage. Therefore, examination of the presented statistics should be done with care.


EMERGENCY EXIT LIGHTING

The FAA regulations require aircraft to be equipped with emergency lighting, independently powered. Emergency lighting systems require illuminated emergency exit marking and locating signs, general cabin illumination, lighting in the immediate emergency exit areas, floor-level escape path marking, and exit exterior emergency lighting. Perhaps the most important of these is the floor lighting, given the threat of smoke obscuration of the ceiling lighting and exit marking.

In general, the emergency lighting designs appear to be reliable in actual incidents and accidents.


FLOOR-LEVEL EXITS

Floor level exits are often the primary exit routes. The ease of opening floor level exit doors is a function of both maintenance and accident severity. Depending on the aircraft design and the typical utilization of exits, the door reliability can be a significant variable in ideal conditions.

Violent accidents always carry the risk of doorway structural deformation. In the Little Rock crash, a flight attendant reported that both forward floor level exit doors were rendered inoperable by impact forces. A second flight attendant reported that the floor level exit door to the tail cone exit could not be readily opened due to the deformation in the aircraft floor. That door was eventually opened with the efforts of the flight attendant and two male passenger volunteers. It should be remembered that a fire was in progress in the mid-wing section; the fuselage damage provided a welcome escape route.

One flight attendant, in the Little Rock accident was seriously injured, leaving two flight attendants to evacuate the aircraft. Those two flight attendants reported that the damage was severe enough that the exit lighting was inadequate (not necessarily inoperative), including the escape path lighting.

There are basically two designs in floor-path lighting. One design has lights mounted in the floor itself, while another has lights mounted on the aisle seats, illuminating the aisle way.

The incidence of failed slide-packs is high enough to be a serious concern. In addition to their failure to inflate, the slide-packs can act as an obstacle to either door opening, or the evacuation process.


TYPE III OVER-WING EXITS

While trained crewmembers are normally expected to operate the emergency equipment on an aircraft, including most floor level exit doors; that is not always the case. In particular, the over-wing exits are designed with the expectation that passengers will open them. Although there are some situations where flight attendants are assigned the responsibility for over-wing exit operation, passengers are more likely to make the first attempt to open the over-wing exit hatches, as the flight attendants are not physically located closest to the over-wing exits.

Despite good design and markings, it is not uncommon for passengers to experience problems in operating the exits. Often, confusion or panic is behind such difficulty, as opposed to design and marking. It is understandable that a passenger might assume that an over-wing hatch is designed to open outward, as opposed to being required to be first pulled into the aircraft interior.

Human factors can either send passengers scurrying for other exits (which might not be available) or to unnecessarily wait for the exit to be opened. Commonly, if one passenger cannot open an over-wing exit, another passenger will solve whatever problem is at hand. The basic problem is in the urgency of the particular situation, wherein seconds can determine survivability.

Despite FAA regulations requiring passengers to be screened for exit row seating, screening does not guarantee that the passengers have read the safety-briefing card or clearly understand how to open or dispose of a Type III over-wing exit hatch, even after reading the card. NTSB studies have demonstrated that even passengers seated in exit rows who are instructed that they may be called upon to help in an emergency evacuation, admit to not reading the briefing card. In one such study, 52 percent indicated that they had not read the briefing card. The weight of over-wing exit hatches has also posed a problem for some passengers.

One of the major problems with over-wing hatches is that it is not intuitively obvious that after pulling the latch, the hatch is to be rotated and either placed on adjacent exit row seats or thrown out the opening. Further, the opening and maneuvering of this type exit is also difficult to graphically on the safety cards. Intoxicated passengers sitting at these exits is another concern.

Boeing designed a new over-wing exit, based on human factors. The new exit design offers a top-mounted hinge, allowing the exit to open outward and upward. The design eliminates the problem of how and where to dispose of the exit hatch, as it rotates upward, out of the egress route.

Strangely, the NTSB reports that this new exit design was prompted by the European aviation authority, in response to Boeing's stated intent to increase the passenger count on the 737-600/700/800 series aircraft. The European Joint Aviation Authorities (JAA) announced that they would only agree to an increased passenger count if there was a significant change to the cabin configuration. Therefore, Boeing developed the new Type III hatch in order to meet the JAA position, as opposed to the safety standard of the U.S.


EXIT ROW PASSENGER TASKS

Despite the best of intentions, passengers seated in an exit row may be called upon to assist in an evacuation; requiring their readiness to act quickly upon a crew command or their personal assessment of danger. It should be remembered that these passengers might be required to decide if their exit is safe to use; then open their exit quickly in an emergency. Unfortunately, unlike the flight crew, these passengers receive no formal or significant informal training on performing that task.

Although the FAA provides guidelines to the air carriers as to which passengers to restrict from exit row seating; mistakes still happen and some passengers re-seat themselves, with no regard to the safety requirement. While the guidelines are reiterated on the exit row briefing cards or on the general safety cards, there is no guarantee as to conformity. There are common occurrences of passengers with the inability to meet the safety standards being seated at over-wing exits. The inabilities range from age (young and elderly) to language inability and sobriety.

The FAA regulations require the air carrier to list the tasks that an exit row passenger may be called upon to perform. The passenger must be able to locate and operate the emergency exit, assess the conditions outside an exit, follow the instructions of crewmembers, open and dispose of the exit hatch, assess the condition of and stabilize an escape slide (as required), and pass quickly through the exit. If passengers report that they are unable or unwilling to perform any of these tasks, they must be reseated in a non-exit row prior to airplane movement. It should be noted that the passenger is free to drink alcoholic beverages, while manning the exit.

The NTSB studies indicate that in actual evacuations, the passengers had difficulties deciding to actually open the exit. Another problem posed was assessing the conditions outside of the exit. There have been instances of passengers opening an exit with fire clearly visible on the outside. In such cases, the fire was not sufficient to deter others from using the exit. In addition to the fire hazard, the smoke hazard is also a major factor.

The need for an individual briefing is best illustrated by the NTSB, in the runway collision in Los Angeles California. That report states:

"Passengers seated around row 10 stated that prior to departure, the flight attendant assigned to the R-1 [forward right-hand door] position interviewed a young passenger who was seated in 10D about whether he could fulfill the duties of an able-bodied person in the event of an emergency. The passenger advised the flight attendant that he was 17 years old. However, to be sure the youth understood his responsibilities, the flight attendant conducted a special oral briefing for the persons seated in and around row 10. Passengers stated that the instructions provided by the R-1 flight attendant aided in their evacuation. "

While it is not a requirement, carriers sometimes seat non-revenue passengers (employees traveling on a company pass) at the over-wing exits for good reason. Often, the seats do not recline, so experienced travelers (including employees) may purposely avoid the seats by any means possible.

Another issue, not officially addressed is the positioning the megaphones within easy reach of flight attendants at their assigned jump-seat positions is a matter not yet addressed by the industry. Given the probability of a power failure in conjunction with an accident, it is academic that flight attendants need quick access, so as to instruct the over-wing passengers, at a minimum. The location of the megaphones on most aircraft require a flight attendant to fight a tide of desperate or frightened passengers attempting to reach a floor-level door, at the front or rear of the aircraft.


EVACUATION SLIDES

The FAA requires all exits higher than 6 feet off the ground to be accompanied by an assist means for allowing passengers to reach the ground quickly and safely during an emergency. This requirement is typically met through the use of inflatable escape slides. In general, these slides must be automatically deployed and inflated in 6 seconds and usable in a 25-knot wind with the assistance of only one person.

However, door-slide mechanical failures are far too common for a variety of reasons. Despite the common failures the FAA / industry is extremely slow to address the issue. In the summer of 2000, a flight attendant was killed in a complex accident, after being effectively thrown from a door whose slide failed. The particular carrier had a history of such failures.

A major factor in slide failures is the 25-knot wind limitation. It is conceivable for an aircraft to be dispatched land into a 40-knot wind. An evacuation might be initiated in conditions which leave all slides unusable. Worse, flight crews are typically not given any instructions in such an event. Conceivably, an aircraft could be reduced to half the over-wing exits as the only means of evacuation.

Another issue in the slide failures is the trend for airlines to reduce costs by eliminating detailed inspections of their aircraft. Such inspections are typically beyond the skill of either pilots or flight attendants.

Despite pleas by the NTSB, the FAA is typically slow or non-responsive to urgent matters. In many cases, the FAA will only go as far as publishing an Advisory Circular, which carries no enforcement authority.

In their June, 2000 report, the NTSB cited a slide failure in 37 percent of their recent case studies of passenger evacuations involving slide deployments. The NTSB also cited the failure of the Service Difficulty Reporting system (FAR 121.703) to reveal problems due either to non-reporting or lack of detailed information.


EXIT HEIGHT FROM GROUND

Serious injuries in evacuations are commonly the result of falling or jumping from exits or off the wings. Unfortunately, the resistance of passengers unwilling to jump from a wing carries the risk of the passengers returning to the airplane cabin; a potentially lethal environment.

The absence of a crewmember being involved with over-wing evacuation adds to the risk of passenger mistakes, once clear of the aircraft cabin. Despite all attempts, there is a high risk that passengers will not readily use the trailing edge flaps as an escape route. There are a certain percentage of evacuations in which the flaps are either not extended, or are inadvertently retracted. In the case of the larger aircraft, the wing height can be a risk due to height itself, or the unknown location of passengers on the wing. Obviously, the presence of fire in such a situation can be particularly hazardous.


EVACUATION GUIDANCE AND PROCEDURES

As with passengers, a flight crew may conduct an emergency evacuation as their first and only time. History repeatedly tells us that the difference between a successful and an unsuccessful evacuation can be measured in terms of seconds. Thus, clear and precise procedures must be devised so as to be immediately effective to assist the crew. Beyond training, the reinforcement of emergency procedures and associated training is mandated.

Beyond the FAA regulations requiring each air carrier to have an approved training programs for flight crews and flight attendants, the FAA principal operations inspector (POI) assigned to the air carrier is responsible for evaluating each air carrier's "initial training plan and devices." After granting the initial approval, the POI is directed to reevaluate the training program. Only if crewmembers are adequately trained to perform their duties, is the POI to issue a final approval of the program.


GUIDANCE TO FLIGHT CREWS ON WHEN TO EVACUATE

The decision to evacuate an aircraft is normally made by the pilots or the flight attendants. In a case such as a bomb threat, others can make the recommendation, remembering that the captain is the final authority. In the NTSB study, the pilots initiated approximately 95% of the evacuations. The predominate reason for initiating the evacuations was the presence or risk of fire.

The NTSB also discovered an industry ambiguity on the evacuation criteria in the case of both the pilots and the flight attendants. Given that evacuations are rather common, it is surprising that some specific and clear guidance isn't provided by either the FAA or the individual airline.


In general, European carriers have ten events listed just for flight attendant self-initiation of an evacuation:

1. Dense smoke in the cabin
2. Radical Attitude of the aircraft (after stopping or aborting)
3. Ditching
4. Self sustaining fire either inside or outside the aircraft
5. Sounds that indicate the catastrophic breaking up of the aircraft.
6. Overwhelming odor of fuel or other clearly toxic fumes
7. Uncontrolled panic
8. Catastrophic damage to the cockpit
9. Bomb threat
10. Hijacking or terrorist threat

Thus, it can be seen that a list of clear indicators is possible to formulate, weighing the captain's authority in all cases.

While pilots are provided some guidance from the flight operations manuals, safety manuals and simulator training, the typical flight manual or checklist generally states, "initiate evacuation if required."

Some known checklist procedures vaguely direct pilots to initiate or consider evacuation include generic descriptions such as, "emergency landing," "fire (engine, APU, avionics, and cargo)," "smoke (in passenger cabin areas and in air conditioning)," "abnormal landing gear," and "ditching."

However, these indicators are neither clear nor specific enough to be particularly useful. For example, an engine fire, which has obviously been extinguished, is not an indicator for an evacuation, as opposed to an uncontrollable engine fire. Likewise, air conditioning smoke is typically a simple matter of shutting down air conditioning packs.

Being brief, the NTSB concluded that pilots are simply not receiving consistent guidance, particularly in flight operations and safety manuals, as to when an evacuation is appropriate. The NTSB appropriately requested the FAA to require specific guidance in flight operations manuals, safety manuals and abnormal and emergency procedures / checklists. To date, that has not been accomplished.

In addition to actually initiating an evacuation, the action requires careful coordination with respect to preparations, conduct and post-event management, as well as effective communication throughout all phases.


PLANNED EVACUATIONS

Air carrier flight attendant manuals normally deal with both planned and unplanned evacuations. Planned evacuations are normally treated in terms of having some adequate period of time which allows the crew to review the evacuation procedures and to prepare the passengers and crew for the impending landing and a reasonably orderly evacuation. Planned evacuations permit the passengers to be given such instruction as the brace instructions and focused guidance on evacuation and exit use/operation.

Unplanned evacuations are generally defined as occurring suddenly, with little or no warning and little or no time to prepare. Most such manuals illustrate unplanned evacuations as occurring in conjunction with emergencies, which occur during takeoff or scheduled landings. Few manuals address unplanned evacuations associated with the en route portion of flight, despite the increasing occurrence of electrical fires, causing en route diversions. Most manuals describe unplanned evacuations as being far more common than planned evacuations.

In any evacuation, time can be a tremendous variable. In planned evacuations, passengers should be told to expect an evacuation upon landing and forcefully directed to examine their safety card. Typically, the brace position is utilized only when there is a valid concern of an impending impact in such instances as an unsafe landing gear. With the time available, passengers should be briefed on the appropriate brace positions and the location / operation of exits. It may be advantageous to reseat able-bodied passengers near the over-wing and floor level exits. A focused briefing should be conducted to ensure an efficient evacuation. Any deadheading or commuting flight attendants or pilots should be positioned next to the over-wing exits to ensure quick opening and competence as to the decision to open the exits. In addition, passengers should be asked to remove any potentially hazardous objects prior to landing. Any under-seat hand carry items should be verified to be secured. If any unusual events are planned, an appropriate briefing should be conducted, including the expectation of emergency vehicles, regardless of the outcome. In all cases, updated or repeat information is necessary to promote morale and to keep emotions under control. The expression of caring promotes trust, diminishing the panic risk.

Post-event reports tell a powerful story. In one event, passengers wrote, "They kept us all well informed." Another stated, "The crew acted professionally and efficiently." Another wrote, "I appreciated that they kept us updated on what was happening."

Conversely, such positive comments toward crew communication with passengers are not typical in events which allowed for good communication, but in fact did not include preparation of the passengers for a possible evacuation. In one case, passengers were only informed that a maintenance problem had been identified and that the flight would be returning to the departure airport. Upon landing an evacuation was abruptly ordered. The passengers cited the advisory that the airport fire trucks would meet the airplane but that their presence was normal. While the passengers indicated that the crew reassured them that there was nothing to worry about, the crew gave no indication as to the magnitude of the problem. The crew failed to cite the seriousness of the emergency landing, with no evacuation instructions or brace instructions given.

Planned evacuations permit more than just PR and keeping passengers calm. By keeping passengers informed and doing such things as reviewing brace positions improves the chance that passengers will be properly prepared for any scenario, which occurs during an emergency landing. In simple terms, passengers do not respond well to surprise events.

Planned evacuations allow flight attendants not only the time to inform passengers of what to expect, but to build a professional trust, which facilitates an evacuation. Being thorough and totally honest avoids surprises, which might otherwise delay or hinder an evacuation.

In cases, which allow inadequate time, the outcome depends on the predisposition of all involved, including the passengers. Ideally, evacuation / survival priorities are identified with planned evacuations being conducted in concert with those priorities. Unfortunately, there is no industry norm on the subject of evacuations. One carrier might have planned evacuation procedures unrealistically requiring upwards of 30 minutes. Another carrier may have two or three categories of planned evacuations. Many carriers simply do not specify a time requirement to conduct a briefing in their manuals. There are also those who provide little, if any, direction on how to conduct an abbreviated briefing.

An important aspect of evacuations is to maximize any time available to prepare the cabin for an evacuation. The preparation involves the flight crew, just as much as the passengers. Many incident / accident reports reflect the fact that adequate time was available for an abbreviated briefing to the passengers but no briefing was actually given. Such cases typically reflect something of a panic / catatonia among the crew, sometimes an apathy. There have been cases wherein it was discovered that the flight attendant manuals had no procedures for rapid briefing of passengers. For lack of a solution, the flight attendants elected to remain silent. In other cases, the cockpit crew failed to adequately inform the flight attendants, even though rapid briefing procedures were available.

Depending on the individual carrier, Crew Resource Management (CRM) procedures may penetrate the cockpit-cabin barrier sufficiently, so as to adequately inform the flight attendants of the seriousness of the event at hand, or their probable need to evacuate; thus allowing a timely and adequate briefing.

Likewise, if a successful landing is achieved, an effort is needed to prevent an unnecessary 'spring-loaded' evacuation. That can be a simple PA, "Ladies & gentlemen, we're safe; stay seated." It is obvious that the situation might not be clear to the pilots until the last second. However, every attempt should be made to update the passenger cabin to preclude any chaos or panic.


EXIT SELECTION

In an evacuation, the crews are tasked with the decision as to which exits to use. Ideally, all exits would be used to evacuate the aircraft as quickly as possible. However, this ideal is rarely achieved as exits are commonly blocked by hazards such as damage, debris, fire or smoke. In reality, it is unusual for evacuations to employ every available exit, due to mechanical restrictions or simple prejudice toward using only the floor-level exits.

Flight attendants are trained to assess which exits are usable. Assuming cockpit survival, the pilots are expected to first secure the aircraft through an "Evacuation" checklist. This checklist essentially calls for shutting down the engines and activating the emergency exit lights, as well as initiating the evacuation. Thereafter, it is reasonably expected that the pilots will provide any needed assistance to the flight attendants, including exit opening and slide deployment, based on their knowledge of the crisis. The evacuation procedures are not standardized, varying broadly among the air carriers. Some air carriers direct the pilots to direct which exits to use. Some air carriers direct the flight attendants to determine which exits to use.

A major influence on the choice of exits to use is the concern for passenger injury during an evacuation. Pilot judgment may dictate an expeditious deplaning through the aircraft entry door, with stairs in place, as opposed to a true evacuation. Common sense dictates that an expeditious deplaning is to be used only with no imminent threat to passengers exists. The reasons for conducting such an evacuation vary from such events as a fuel spill to a dubious bomb threat. Such evacuations may require using the normal boarding jetway or the use of mobile airstairs.

Some air carriers provide written procedures for limited evacuations, also limiting the exit utilization, based on passenger safety. Air carriers may indicate in their procedures that certain exits are preferable (typically those lowest to the ground) in events such as landing gear failure. Such procedures might also state that floor level exits are preferable to use, as opposed to over-wing exits, honoring the probable hazardous angle of the wing.

The lack of standardized evacuation procedures carries another potential hazard, in the form of crew concern for company costs. As a result, evacuations are often limited to the use of a single exit. While economically prudent, the matter needs to be addressed in terms of the demand for maximum evacuation rate. The obvious question to the captain automatically appears, "If an evacuation was necessary, why didn't you use all exits? If it wasn't necessary, why did you order an evacuation?"


UNKNOWN FACTORS

An example is important on this topic:

In one reported evacuation following a right main landing gear failure, the pilots asked both a flight attendant and the tower if any fire was present on or around the airplane. After receiving the report of 'no fire,' the pilots ordered an evacuation using only the front entry door. After approximately 15 passengers had evacuated, the first officer exited the aircraft. He discovered a fire around the left main gear; directing the flight attendants to evacuate using all of the right exits.

Obviously, limiting the number of exits used during an evacuation will have a dramatic effect on the evacuation time. While good judgment is appropriate, there remains a major concern over the matter. The subject quickly narrows to the choices of, 'retain, deplane or evacuate.' To take the matter further, one quickly arrives at the thought, "When in doubt, there is none." Specifically, if any doubt/confusion exists; evacuate at maximum speed.

Although limiting the number of exits does not directly imply the risk of passenger injury because of the delay in exiting the aircraft, several safety concerns are immediately raised. First, the element of risk is presented by virtue of the fact that carriers do not establish a safe procedure for determining when to use a limited number of exits. Thus, the specter of 'dangerous presumption' rapidly appears. In actual practice, flight attendants are not likely to have been trained nor are they likely to have received any significant guidance for evacuating an aircraft, using limited exits.

Where flight crews have used limited exits for evacuations, the company typically justifies the action - uniquely in hindsight - contending that the procedure minimizes potential passenger harm and panic. However, other than coincidence of history, there is no significant data or evidence to justify such a decision. By default, most parties take the political position, "no harm; no foul." As a direct consequence, a major safety issue is evaded.

An issue also not addressed is the matter of evacuating as the result of a baggage / cargo hold fire. While the bulk of these incidents are false warnings, there have been a sufficient number of valid fires to warrant serious consideration with respect to establishing in-flight procedures and limited exit evacuation procedures to deal with this issue.

For example, having the flight attendants monitor the floor temperature with their hands. Histories of bleed air leaks have established this as a viable procedure. Most importantly, is the evacuation issue when a fire is probable. More particularly the matter of whether or not to evacuate on one side of the aircraft only, away from the cargo doors. Although the cargo doors do not necessarily pose a greater exposure risk, it is assured that the fire-rescue crews and equipment will be responding to those doors.

Opposing the limited exit use during evacuations is the question of legal liability. With rare exception, limited exit use is not in accordance with the air carrier's existing (FAA approved) evacuation procedures. At the minimum, all available floor level exits, which can be safely used, should be utilized during an evacuation.


SLIDE USE COMMANDS

During an evacuation, flight attendants are trained to shout commands to the passengers to assist in the evacuation. When slides are used, the typical commands are "Jump and slide," or, "Sit and slide." Again, industry standardization is lacking. Honoring the probable dynamics of such a moment, the command of "slide' should be sufficient. Given the history of a limited number of evacuees bouncing over the side of the slide, the command of "jump" is questionable.

As with such emergencies as an engine failure, the aircraft type certification procedures should include the appropriate command, extracted from the manufacturers' studies and experience.

In particular, some carriers use the command, "Sit and slide." The time taken to first sit to board the slide will obviously create a significant cumulative delay. Such a procedure is not likely to allow slide / aircraft manufacturers to attain the current required slide rate of 70 people per lane per minute.

It must be remembered that speed is the primary issue in evacuations. Consequently, many carriers utilize the command "jump and slide." Despite a history of injuries, mostly minor, that command might be appropriate. A conflict can be discovered in the case of some carriers who use the command of "jump and slide,' with their passenger briefing cards depicting the 'sit-and-slide' procedure.

Based on their studies, the NTSB asked the FAA to review all air carrier procedures and training programs to ensure that the commands used for slide evacuations are consistent with the commands used for slide evacuations during the aircraft certification.


AIRCRAFT FAMILIARIZATION FOR RESCUE PERSONNEL

Typically, Aircraft Rescue and Fire Fighting (ARFF) units are not given thorough hands-on aircraft familiarization and egress training. These units typically do not receive systems or cockpit-oriented training in such matters as shutting down engines for all the airplane types operating at their airport.

Aircraft availability in all airplane types is often understandably difficult and burdensome to achieve. Likewise, the knowledge of an air carrier's procedures can be confusing. Again, the standardization issue.

Thus, a reasonable expectation can be had in regard to the efforts of ARFF personnel being hindered in their ability to quickly and efficiently assist during evacuations.

In the background of this issue is that countries such as Mexico and Canada do not measure up to the U.S standards. However, These facts may signify the imminent downturn in U.S. standards.


COMMUNICATION

Once again, successful evacuations depend on good communication between all parties, particularly among the aircraft crewmembers; and between the crew and the passengers. Communication with appropriate ground personnel is equally critical.


CREW-TO-CREW COMMUNICATION

Crew communication is a safety science. In a high percentage of incidents and accidents, communication was the greatest break in the safety chain. Standard terminology is also vitally important. Many carriers utilize the command, "Easy Victor!" to indicate an evacuation. The phrase, "Easy Victor," was originally intended as a warning code to allow flight attendants to get to their evacuation positions prior to passengers. However, its use has been corrupted over time, commonly becoming a substitute for the evacuation initiation. The potential for creating confusion is obvious. While flight crew might be familiar with the expression, the passengers will be confused to an appreciable degree. Although a heated debate is possible on the subject, the command of "evacuate" is far more clear and compelling. A strongly suggested technique is to specify any restrictions PRIOR to commanding the evacuation. ("Right side only, right side only; evacuate, evacuate, evacuate!!!")

CRM plays a major role in evacuation scenarios. Often, safety information is needed from the flight attendants, while status and planning information is likewise needed from the cockpit. Standard terminology and clear communication are essential. Having an 'open' communication atmosphere is critical. A common report is a case wherein the flight deck crew indicated to the flight attendants that they would be making a 'precautionary landing,' failing to mention that ARFF units would be responding. Subsequently, the passengers were also not informed of a possible emergency situation, nor that ARFF units would be responding during the landing. In many such cases, the passengers should have been briefed on the details of the situation and to assume the brace position.

It is quite common for passengers and flight attendants to later complain about the quality of crew communication, due to either neglect or mechanical failure. The onus is on the cockpit, as a failure to communicate leaves the flight attendants in the position to decide on whether or not to self-initiate an evacuation. In many cases, the flight attendants are seriously under-informed, just due to their isolation from the radio communication.

Again, the cabin megaphones are more appropriately placed within easy reach of the flight attendants at their assigned jumpseat locations. In cases where interphone communication is cut off, the anticipated response is for the aft flight attendant(s) following the lead of the forward flight attendants. That scenario is critical with the risk of the forward flight attendants being seriously injured in a crash.

Post-event studies reveal the need for dynamic CRM. The primary focus of such comments is on combined training of pilots and flight attendants on emergencies, particularly with respect to evacuation procedures.

While combined CRM training with flight attendants is performed by some carriers, current information indicates that the integrated training needs to be expanded. Actual cases where quality joint CRM training with flight attendants was conducted by a carrier, the training was rated as 'invaluable.' The CRM training cited in such comments described simulated evacuation exercises with flight attendants or trainees. The indications are that full drills need to be conducted, similar to marine environment. The need is particularly emphasized in the case of aircraft with two-person cockpit crews.

Although the FAA expanded the issue of CRM training for flight attendants in Advisory Circular, AC 120-51C, stating that flight attendants should conduct CRM training with cockpit crews, covering shared issues such as evacuations and ditching, the FAA stopped short of actually requiring such training. Again, the Advisory Circulars carry no enforcement capability.

It should be noted that the NTSB has repeatedly reminded the FAA that joint exercises for flight deck crews and flight attendants on evacuations, among other matters, would solve many of the CRM-related communication problems that currently exist. Despite the NTSB illustrations that such training is reported as beneficial by crewmembers who have participated in both the combined training and an actual evacuation, the FAA seems to remain mysteriously disinterested.

Accident and incident reports illuminate the fact that serious communication and coordination problems continue to exist between flight deck crews and flight attendants during all emergencies, including aircraft evacuations. However, despite the NTSB illustrations of how joint exercises for flight crews and flight attendants on evacuation have proven effective in resolving these problems, the FAA resists any changes.

The FAA position, that Advisory Circulars are not to be regarded as mandatory, leaves the standardization of evacuation procedures as discretionary. Ironically, the content of the Advisory Circulars is commonly used in enforcement proceedings against pilots.


CREW-TO-PASSENGER COMMUNICATION

Obviously, passenger performance during an evacuation is highly dependent on how the crews prepare the passengers for an evacuation. Two different primary methods of communication are typically used by the air carriers to instruct passengers what to do if an evacuation is necessary: the preflight verbal / video briefing, and a printed safety briefing card.


PREFLIGHT SAFETY BRIEFING

The FAA regulations require a passenger safety briefing prior to takeoff. This briefing is required to include information on smoking, emergency exit location, seat belts, compliance with safety signs, and the location and use of flotation means. If the flight operates above 25,000 feet mean sea level, the briefing must include information on the emergency use of oxygen.

The FAA Advisory Circular, AC 121-24B, is intended to guide air carriers in the development of their safety briefings. The AC lists the FAR material that must be covered, also offering suggestions for material that should be covered. The AC addresses the difficulty in motivating passengers to pay attention to the safety information and suggests making the briefing as attractive and interesting as possible to increase passenger attention. Further, the AC suggests that flight attendants be animated, speak clearly and slowly, and maintain eye contact with the passengers. The AC also suggests the use of videotape, as it ensures a complete briefing with good diction and allows for additional visual information to be presented to the passengers.

In a study of passengers involved in actual evacuations, 13 percent indicated they watched none of the briefing, and 48 percent reported that they watched at least 75 percent of the briefing.

Fifty-four percent reported that they had not watched the entire briefing because they had seen it before. Some passengers indicated that the briefing was common knowledge, and therefore there was no need to watch the briefing.

Passengers who watched more than half the briefing were divided evenly on the effectiveness of the briefing. Some passengers who reported watching the entire briefing indicated that the briefing was not helpful for their evacuation; the remaining number believed it was helpful. The primary concern expressed by passengers was that the briefing covered situations that did not apply to their particular evacuation. Passengers reported that they would have preferred information regarding exit routes or information such as how to slide or how to get off of wings. Those that believed the briefing was helpful indicated that they were more aware of the exit locations because of the briefing.

The NTSB has issued several recommendations over 25 years on improving passenger attention to preflight safety briefings. The NTSB recommended that the FAA Issue an advisory circular that would provide standardized guidance to the air transport industry on effective methods and techniques for conveying safety information to passengers.

The NTSB also recommended that the FAA require that recurrent flight attendant training programs contain instructions on the use of the public address (PA) system and techniques for maintaining effective safety briefings and demonstrations which would improve the motivation of passengers to pay attention to the oral briefings and to the demonstrations.

Current information indicates that the problem of passenger inattention to briefings continues to exist. The implied message is that the Advisory Circulars are selectively complied with. Unfortunately, despite the efforts and techniques applied over the years to improve passenger attention to safety briefings, a large percentage of passengers can be expected to predictably continue ignoring the preflight safety briefings.

Again, 54 percent of the passengers indicated that they did not watch the entire briefing because they had seen it on previous flights. Another problem is that safety information for one aircraft may differ from the safety information for the next aircraft. Thus exit locations, floor path lighting, and oxygen systems are important to be discussed in the oral briefing. Passengers need to be aware of the existence of such differences and the need to pay attention to the specific safety information.

With the exception of videotape presentations, there has been very little change in how safety information is presented to passengers. The NTSB has suggested the application of creative methods, employing state-of-the-art technology, to improve passenger attention to safety information. The NTSB has recommended that the FAA mandate research and explore creative and effective methods to convey the safety information to passengers. The information should include a demonstration of all emergency evacuation procedures, including how to open the emergency exits and exit the aircraft, as well as how to use the slides.

Unfortunately, it appears that the economic demand for the shortest possible taxi times creates a demand for abbreviated safety briefings, inadequate for the actual safety needs.


SAFETY BRIEFING CARDS

The FAA currently requires the oral briefings to be supplemented with printed safety briefing cards which pertain only to the particular make and model of aircraft, consistent with the air carrier's procedures (14 CFR 121.571(b)). The safety cards are required to contain diagrams and methods of operation for all emergency exits and any instructions for operating other emergency equipment. Advisory Circular 121-24B provides guidelines for air carriers in the development of their safety cards.

The NTSB studies on passenger use of the safety cards was consistent with previous findings that passengers tend to NOT look at the cards, 68 percent indicated that they did not read the safety card. Of those, 89 percent indicated that they had read the card on previous flights. Of particular concern to the NTSB was that 44 percent reported that they neither examined the safety card nor listened to the safety briefing.

Among the passengers who reported reading the card, 59 percent indicated that the card was useful. The primary benefit of the card was for identifying exit location. Other benefits cited by passengers included instructions on how to use the slides, and the location of emergency lights.

The safety briefing cards typically also contain information on brace positions, such as brace positions for children, for a parent holding an infant, and for a pregnant passenger. However, the inclusion of bracing information is not mandatory for safety cards.

All safety cards include instructions on operating emergency exits. However, the degree of detail can often vary to a dangerous degree. For example, such cards may include the instructions for an exit operation, but not include a clear indication of the exit location. The quality of the instructions for exit operation can vary widely. An important aspect of the safety cards is the depiction of the procedure for stowing the exit hatches. This issue varies as well; some cards depict the exit hatch being stowed inside the aircraft, while others indicate the hatch to be discarded outside the aircraft. The actual exit instructions were also communicated in various ways. Most cards illustrate how the passengers are to move from the wing to the ground, sliding down the trailing edge flaps, while others did not depict how passengers should get off the wing.

Slide use information is also varied, with cards not always indicating an effective technique for getting onto the slide; jumping or sitting.

The NTSB expressed serious concern with the minimum level of acceptable comprehension and performance standards used to measure whether persons who represent typical passengers understand the safety information presented. Two 1997 studies demonstrated that passenger comprehension of the safety cards to be unacceptably low. Roughly two-thirds of tested subjects understood the meaning of only half of the safety card pictures. Safety card information is presented in oral briefings and demonstrations, on safety cards, and in videotaped briefings. The NTSB expressed concern as to whether typical passengers are actually able to perform the actions described, such as using the supplemental oxygen systems, using life preservers, and the operation of aircraft exits.

A small number of third-party firms commercially produce the typical evacuation cards with a focus on visual comprehension. However, not all such firms conduct comprehension testing, which is not required by the FAA. The NTSB has become concerned with the fact that many air carrier safety-briefing cards do not clearly or effectively communicate safety information to passengers.


RETRIEVAL OF CARRY-ON LUGGAGE

Currently, U.S. air carriers use two primary methods to prevent passengers from taking personal belongings during an evacuation. The first method is a presentation on the safety-briefing card. Typically, the cards display a pictogram to indicate, "Leave baggage;" a suitcase in the center of a slashed circle. The second method is the flight attendants' command, "leave everything - get out" during the evacuation. Despite these attempted methods, passengers often attempt to take their carry-on belongings.

Flight attendants commonly suggest including a statement in the standard preflight safety briefing, advising leaving carry-on luggage behind. However, the industry is yet unresponsive to such suggestions.

Similarly, passengers who have been through the experience of an evacuation, who concur likewise, indicated the necessity of a preflight announcement regarding carry-on baggage in emergencies. When asked how the safety briefing could be improved, one group of passengers indicated that the preflight briefing should mention leaving carry-on luggage behind.

The evacuation speed has been found to be highly dependent on the actions of the flight attendants. Typically, flight attendants receive both initial and recurrent training on methods to maintain a constant flow of passengers through an emergency exit. However, in actual practice, flight attendants also reported that their attempts were often thwarted by passengers' insistence on retrieving their carry-on luggage before evacuating.

In evacuation studies, passengers exiting with carry-on baggage were the most frequently cited obstruction to evacuations. Arguments between passengers and flight attendants regarding luggage are relatively common during actual evacuations. As time goes on, notebook computers and cell phones can be expected to become sacred items to passengers, during an evacuation.

Flight attendants typically do not receive any appreciable training with regard to passengers' retrieving carry-on luggage, particularly as to the issue of what to do when passengers do not follow the commands to leave everything behind. In actual evacuations, flight attendants commonly report arguing with passengers over the baggage. In the actual scenario, a dilemma is posed to flight attendants finding it necessary to take bags from passengers. The choice seems to be limited to throwing bags out the exit to preclude clutter at the exit, or allowing the passengers to take the bags. Using commands such as "leave everything - get out," is currently the only viable solution offered. Although tempting, encouraging passengers to enforce the evacuation discipline may cause more harm by creating a combative situation among the passengers.

While it is understandable that passengers place a premium on such small items as identification, credit cards, money, keys, wallets, and medicines as necessities after an emergency evacuation, these items can be the cause of a disaster when additional time is taken to gather them during an evacuation. As a consequence, in a planned evacuation, a PA should be given to relieve the anxiety over the uncertainty of when or if passengers will get their possessions returned if they leave the items behind.

Passengers attempting to take their luggage during evacuations will obviously present undue risks and delays to a successful evacuation. By retrieving luggage during an evacuation, passengers radically increase the potential for serious injuries or loss of life. While the problem is complex, techniques clearly need to be developed to handle aggressive passengers who defy flight attendants' instructions.


ARFF-TO-CREW COMMUNICATION

There is also a clear need to establish a designated radio frequency at all airports, which allows direct communication between the ARFF personnel and the aircraft. It is also necessary to ensure that ATC personnel, ARFF personnel, and pilots are aware of this asset.

There is additionally a distinct need for standardized hand signals, allowing visual communication between the ARRF personnel and the cockpit, as well as the flight attendants, to accommodate situations in which radio communication is lost.

Radio communication is all too often vital for assisting aircraft crews to conduct safe operations, particularly successful evacuations. It is important for the ground personnel to be able o advise the flight crews as to the need to keep passengers aboard, or to evacuate the aircraft. Similarly, it is vital for the flight crew to know if any exits should not be used.


COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT

Aircraft with more than 19 seats are required to have a PA system and an interphone system. The aircraft interphone system permits discrete communication among the crewmembers. Additionally, each airliner, in particular, typically is required to have at least one battery-powered megaphone.

While the FAA typically allows the aircraft to be operated with an inoperative interphone system, the issue of in-flight fires, alone, dictates that the interphone system needs to be a no-go item. Similarly, the need for cockpit or cabin evacuation instructions dictates the mandate for an operable PA system.

To illustrate these needs, consider the following examples:

Following a serious collision with ground equipment, the lead flight attendant attempted to contact the cockpit using the interphone, 11 seconds after the collision, to report that a fire had started outside the airplane. For unknown reasons, the pilots did not hear or recognize the significance of the flight attendant call chimes. Instead, the captain used the PA system to command passengers to remain seated. Using her own initiative, the flight attendant decided to evacuate, having failed to contact the cockpit. Eight seconds into the evacuation, the pilots were made aware of the fire outside the aircraft.

In a case involving an inoperative interphone, an MD-80 experienced a catastrophic uncontained engine failure. The aft flight attendant attempted to call the cockpit to report debris, smoke, and injuries in the aft cabin, and to inform the cockpit that she was initiating an evacuation. The inoperative interphone system led to the flight attendant evacuating the passengers, while the pilots, unaware of the actual situation in the cabin, instructed passengers to remain seated, over the PA.

Examining the various evacuations, the NTSB proposed that new aircraft be equipped with an independently powered evacuation alarm system, operable from each crewmember station, and establish the related for the system use.

Despite the pragmatic approach, the FAA went into denial, claiming that the current designs were reliable and sufficient, despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

The FAA passionately took the position that the interphone and the PA systems are redundant to such an evacuation alarm, especially if the PA and interphone systems are used in the prescribed manner. The FAA also argued that if the training procedures were not followed, neither the interphone/PA system nor the proposed evacuation alarm would be effective. While the passion of the FAA argument sounds convincing, reality again, diverges.

In the case of the B-737, which overran the runway in Burbank, California, (March 5, 2000) the cockpit failed to select the PA button on their interphone panel, thus, their command for the passengers to remain seated was broadcast to the ATC tower instead. A later command to evacuate was, likewise, never heard over the PA. It is moot that the proposed backup alarm would have prevented the communication problems to a large extent. The aircraft stopped a few feet short of a set of gasoline pumps at a service station.

The FAA service difficulty reporting system currently allows incomplete and inaccurate information about component failures. For example, the various Service Difficulty Report (SDR) forms and database do not address cycles and flight or calendar time since the last inspection for failed components. The SDR reports do not compel complete and accurate information on component failures. The Federal Aviation Administration inspectors are not currently required to review the component failure reports for accuracy and completeness.

It should be appreciated that the FAA typically tolerates a submission of only approximately 30% of the mandatory Service Difficulty reports, without enforcement action against the carriers. Given that it is a felony to withhold a mandatory report, this is particularly worthy of question.

Of particular interest is the consistent pattern of the FAA patronizing corporate profits, over the obvious issues of safety.

In order to put the topic of aircraft evacuations into perspective, the following observations from known data are important to consider:

1. Evacuations are a relatively common occurrence.

2. From cases studied, an evacuation will result in an estimated 92 percent uninjured, 6 percent will sustain minor injuries, while 2 percent will sustain serious injuries.

3. Adequate research has not been conducted to determine the appropriate exit row width on commercial aircraft. Thus, over-wing exits may contain a hidden hazard, knowingly facilitated by the FAA.

4. In general, passengers can be expected to access airplane exits without difficulty. However, in a violent accident, such factors as dislodged interior cabin furnishings remain as a risk to passengers' access to exits.

5. Emergency lighting systems can be reasonably expected to function as intended.

6. In the majority of accidents, the floor level exit doors can be expected to be opened without difficulty.

7. Passengers can be expected to have problems opening the over-wing exits and handling the hatch. The method for opening the over-wing exits and disposing of the hatch cannot be expected to be intuitive to passengers, nor is such a method easily depicted on the emergency cards in the seat-back pockets.

8. Most passengers seated in the exit rows do not read the safety information cards. Independently, these passengers cannot be expected to easily understand the tasks they may need to perform in an emergency evacuation. Currently, passengers seated in the over-wing exit rows do not receive personal briefings from flight attendants even though it is well known that personal briefings can greatly assist passengers in their understanding of the tasks that they may be called upon to perform.

9. Flight attendants are typically seated too far from the over-wing exits to provide immediate assistance to passengers attempting to evacuate through the exits.

10. In approximately 1/3 of evacuations with slide deployments there are problems with at least one slide; that figure is unacceptable.

11. The majority of serious evacuation-related injuries can be expected to occur at airplane doors and over-wing exits without slides.

12. Pilots and flight attendants are not receiving either adequate or consistent guidance, particularly in flight operations and safety manuals, on when to evacuate an aircraft.

13. Passengers receive significant benefit from precautionary safety briefings, just prior to emergency occurrences. Thus, reinforcement is critical, whenever possible.

14. The crew election to use a limited number of exits during actual evacuations is typically not consistent with the respective air carrier's evacuation procedures. All available floor level exits that are not blocked by a known hazard should be used during an evacuation.

15. The evacuation instruction to sit, before exiting down a slide, is likely to delay the evacuation. The failure of the crew to issue commands, directing passengers on how to get onto a slide will also delay the evacuation. Further, the seat-back safety cards should illustrate the correct method, consistent with actual procedures.

16. Rescue crews need more hands-on training specific to the airplane types that frequent their airports. Currently, aircraft rescue and fire-fighting personnel may be hindered in their ability to quickly and efficiently assist during evacuations.

17. Communication and coordination problems continue to exist between pilots and flight attendants during airplane evacuations. This is true, despite the fact that the NTSB continues to remind airlines and the FAA that joint exercises for flight crews and flight attendants on evacuation have proven effective in resolving these problems.

18. Despite the best of efforts and communication techniques, a high percentage of passengers will ignore the preflight safety briefings. The NTSB has found that despite the FAA guidance, including the FAA Advisory Circulars, too high a percentage of air carrier safety briefing cards do not clearly communicate safety information to the passengers.

19. The propensity of passengers to evacuate an airplane with their carry-on baggage continues to pose a serious threat to a successful aircraft evacuation.

20. The NTSB has illustrated that techniques are needed on how to handle passengers who do not listen to flight attendants' instructions need to be addressed.

21. Evacuations continue to be hampered by inefficient communication in all regimes.

22. The NTSB is encouraging the installation of an independently powered evacuation alarm on all newly manufactured transport-category airplanes. However, given the variables possible in an incident or accident, such an alarm should be viewed as a backup communication means.

23. The occurrence of false cargo hold fire indications is a serious concern for all obvious reasons. Given the possibility that illegal cell phone use is a cause, more research is needed. Further, consideration needs to be given to a video camera monitoring system aboard aircraft. Given the current standard of miniaturization, simplicity and low cost, the concept is highly feasible

24. Air carrier selective failure to make mandatory reports to the Federal Aviation Administration's service difficulty reporting (SDR) system, and inadequate reports, severely hamper the identification of the true extent of component problems or failures.

While there are serious shortcomings in the arena of land evacuations, the issue of ditching is equally as serious, as the post-accident trauma and the evacuation process can be the beginning of a greater peril. While ditchings are not as rare as the typical person believes, it is an area which has been seriously neglected, as well.


DEFICIENCIES IN DITCHING TRAINING

There also exists a serious deficiency in airline training programs for ditchings, particularly in reference to the emergency procedures and equipment for planned and unplanned ditchings, both controlled and uncontrolled.

It may surprise many to learn that inadvertent ditchings / crashes near airports during takeoff or landing - with minimal preparation time - is the most common ditching scenario in transport category aircraft accidents.

Aircraft crewmembers' response during ditchings is critical to survival. With rare exception, crewmembers are not receiving appropriate training in the subject of ditching accidents.

Beyond aircraft control, the preparation and control of passengers is the single most important factor in survival during ditchings. Comparing the typical training programs with reports from actual ditching accidents reveals a desperate need for improved training and methods to improve ditching survivability.

The typical training and written materials provided to flight crewmembers is radically deficient. Most training programs presume ideal conditions and events. From actual cases, it is evident that `quick-response' procedures are needed, in addition to the current 'planned' ditching training and materials provided by most carriers.

Typically, airline pilot and flight attendant training programs reflect only aircraft manufacturers' suggested ditching procedures as their official ditching training curriculum. That material is typically extremely limited information on ditching-related procedures and survival considerations. That level of ditching and water-survival training information is totally inadequate.

The U.S. Federal Aviation Regulations (FARs) for transport-category aircraft primarily treat ditching as a planned occurrence, under ideal conditions. The typical (FAA approved) ditching training treats the event as a planned emergency event in which the pilots deliberately land in water, under ideal conditions, with the aircraft under normal control. The typical training presumes that time is available, before a ditching, for the flight crew and passengers to don life preservers and preparing for the actual ditching. Strangely, the training does not relate the ditching scenario to any aircraft malfunction or failure. The standard ditching training scenario unrealistically implies that an aircraft will only ditch due to planned fuel starvation.

Actual occurrences paint a high percentage of ditchings as "unplanned water contact," in which there was little or no time for either crewmember or passenger preparation. Depending on the aspect being considered, 'water-contact' events can be viewed in the perspective of takeoff / landing overruns; or, planned and unplanned ditchings. Statistically, uncontrolled, high-energy water impacts near airports occur more often than traditional ditchings during extended over-water flights by transport-category aircraft.

Current regulations and training focus primarily on the traditional concept of a planned ditching occurring in open water on extended over-water flights. Again, statistically, the bulk of survivable water-related accidents are no-notice events occurring near airports.

A grave risk is found in the fact that airline training programs rarely address the most probable reality, leaving flight crewmembers at a serious disadvantage in dealing with any inadvertent ditching. The typical ditching procedures are almost inappropriate for inadvertent / surprise cases, given that such an event would most likely be a case of an aircraft landing-short or overrunning the runway during a takeoff or landing.

Depending on the individual airline certificate limitations, it is possible for an aircraft to crash into a river, with the passengers at a loss to locate a life vest or having the presence of mind to grab a seat cushion as they exit in panic. A river also carries the risk of passengers being carried away by the current, possibly to their death.

Given the greater probability of a surprise ditching scenario, it is prudent for the pilots and flight attendants to have an automatic set of priorities to revert to, for example:

* FLOTATION
* EVACUATION
* CONGREGATION
* COMMUNICATION
* EXTRICATION

Currently, there is little likelihood of flight crewmembers being able to react to the more probable surprise scenario of the aircraft coming to rest in a nose-high attitude, sustaining severe damage, experiencing rapid flooding, and in most cases, sinking within a few minutes. In any event, the challenges faced by crewmembers and passengers are formidable; the state of preparedness of crewmembers and passengers for such events is crucial to their survival.

The surprise scenario also adds the risk of crewmembers or passengers feeling compelled to perform a dangerous but heroic effort to achieve a higher level of survivability. In one crash report, a flight attendant dove underwater to obtain more life-vests for the survivors.

The element of surprise is likely to magnify human behavior, from non-swimmers' panic to intoxicated passenger problems. A flooding passenger cabin with damaged (shorted out) emergency lighting would certainly add to the panic factor.

Statistics derived from a period from 1959 to 1979 show that 16 survivable air-carrier water accidents occurred worldwide. Those events represented approximately ten percent of the total survivable air-carrier accidents in that time frame.

A 1994 report on worldwide commuter operations cited 33 'water-impact accidents' occurring from 1982 through 1989. A1998 study illustrated that there were at least 179 U.S. airports located within five miles (eight kilometers) of a significant body of water, with the number of similarly located airports worldwide being much higher. According to 1996 data, forty-four of the fifty busiest airports in the U.S. are located within five miles of a significant body of water.

It is only common sense that the likelihood of water accidents will increase as the number of transport-category aircraft operations increase. Common sense also demands an updating and increase in the training for state-of-the-art emergency equipment and in ditching and water-survival / rescue procedures.

The issues become more alarming in light of accident report indications that passengers are generally uneducated about emergency aircraft evacuation and accident survival. Survivor reports indicate a general lack of knowledge about the obtaining and use of flotation devices. Reports also illustrate that passengers are generally unaware that they should leave their carry-on luggage behind, and that the escape slides can serve as a raft. Further, survivor reports also indicated minimal awareness of what they should expect during a rescue of any type.

Dynamic communication among the crewmembers and passengers is critical with respect to managing time in emergencies. Water accidents bring unique requirements for communication. Survival is highly dependent upon realistic factors being addressed in water-related accidents, including water conditions, aircraft damage, crewmember leadership skills, resource management and passenger reaction.

In an actual water accident, of any sort, the aircraft, when surviving intact, can be expected to remain afloat in calm seas for several minutes, sinking tail first. There is the very real risk that aircraft parts such as composite materials (extremely sharp edges) flaps, slats, engine pylon components, probes or other debris could detach. These items can pose great risk to personal injury, with the added risk of damaging flotation devices.

The aircraft system fluids such as fuel, oil and hydraulic fluid are likely to leak to some appreciable degree, exposing survivors to thermal and chemical burns. The toxic effects of oral intake of these fluids are an additional risk. These fluids are also likely to create slippery surfaces on rafts or rescue equipment. All of these pose serious hazards to the survivors and rescue crews. With any significant damage to the aircraft fuel tanks or lines, the odor of fuel is also likely to increase the chance of panic - inside or outside the aircraft.

The final aircraft condition will depend largely on the pilot ditching technique and the state of the water. The crew / passenger ability to deplane into the rafts, will also depend on the state of the water. In an actual ditching scenario, the hazard to passengers and crewmembers will typically increase as time passes. Therefore, proper crewmember training will obviously make the difference as to whether or not the crewmembers can function effectively and maintain control of the situation.

The example of the B-737 crashing into the Potomac, should bring many issues to mind. The passengers were subjected to a river current with floating ice, with passengers and rescuers being subjected to the rapid onset of hypothermia.n Additionally, rotorwash induces a high chill-factor.

In open water, the rescue operations will produce their own hazards, such as the risk of rafts capsizing from helicopter rotor wash and the possibility of static electrocution if the crewmembers or passengers grasp the ungrounded steel rescue cable dangling from the rescue helicopter hoist.

Various studies continue to identify serious deficiencies, illuminating the need for operational and training program changes to enhance safety in ditchings.

While aircraft manufacturers are required to develop ditching procedures which are the basis for airline ditching and water-survival training programs (FAR 25.1581), these efforts have been ineffective in the sense of realism.

In typical training materials, "pre-ditching" communication focuses on the radio distress call and the demonstration on how to don the life vests. The training materials typically don't address any pre-ditching communications among the aircraft crewmembers. The typical training materials recommend a standard passenger briefing with appropriate amendments to the normal pre-landing briefing. In a sentence, the recommended communications are highly inadequate.

Typical classroom training briefing exercises require a demonstration on how to don the life vests and how to use the flotation-seat cushions. The typical materials recommended that, with sufficient time available, cabin crewmembers advise the passengers to remove high-heeled shoes and assign able-bodied passengers to aid other passengers who may need assistance. Training materials also often suggested that cabin crewmembers assign division lines to distribute passengers evenly among the usable exits. Unplanned ditchings are rarely addressed.

Aircraft manufacturers typically provide the following immediate-action recommendations for ditchings:

* Direct passengers away from unusable exits.

* Retrieve the Emergency Locator Transmitters (ELTs) from aircraft storage locations and carry them aboard a raft.

* Retrieve the survival kit, transporting it aboard a raft.

* Tie the ELT to a raft and deploy the ELT, if so equipped.

* Direct the first evacuees to move to center seating areas as they enter the rafts

* Keep the raft weight distribution even

* Ensure that the aircraft is fully evacuated

* Release slides/rafts from the aircraft by releasing the girt bar attachment and disconnecting or cutting the mooring line

* Guide any evacuees in the water to the raft-boarding stations; bringing them aboard

* Toss a heaving line to any evacuees who may be floundering in water

* Move the rafts away from any fuel-saturated waters, staying in the vicinity of the aircraft until it sinks

* Attend to any serious injuries

* Check the condition of the rafts, repairing or bailing the rafts, as necessary

* Connect two or more rafts using the mooring line; and

* Deploy the sea anchors


In most training materials, emphasis is given to the care of the life raft. Typically, instruction is provided on raft repair, proper inflation, with the added advice to keep the raft floor dry. The typical flight attendant manuals note that the rafts are equipped with locator lights, but it is typically not illustrated that the lights are water-activated. Sea-anchor deployment is normally addressed, but their function is not explained. The installation of the raft canopy is normally addressed. Some training materials state that if the raft should capsize with the canopy deployed, the raft would be impossible to restore to its upright condition. Typically, no instructions are offered for coping with such a circumstance. Hence, the implication is that this occurrence could create a non-survivable situation. It is typically suggested only that the raft lifeline could be used to secure survivors in the water until they can be assisted aboard the raft.

Minimal attention is given to the obvious water-survival issues. The typical training materials state that the passengers should keep their life jackets on and stay low in the raft. These materials typically cite the priority of first aid being administered, with reassurance to the passengers as to the probability of rescue.

The recommendations of aircraft manufacturers, as opposed to the air carriers, are generally deficient, relative to the pragmatic demands:

* Pre-ditching communication guidelines give no directions related to crewmember communication / coordination, nor instructions for unplanned ditchings.

* Basic information on evacuation is identified but not explained in any detail. The manufacturer's materials typically don't address adverse conditions such as disabled exits, fuselage breakup, equipment malfunction, poor lighting, evacuation of injured/disabled persons, passenger disorientation, cabin flooding, poor communication and environmental stressors. The manufacturers typically don't provide instructions for such activities as donning life vests or how to distribute weight evenly in the life rafts. The implied accountability appears to defer to the flotation equipment manufacturers.

* No detailed information for utilization of the emergency equipment is provided.

* The aircraft manufacturers' materials offer no information on the subject of survival.

* No procedures for actual rescue, a description of rescue devices and important tips for the use of rescue equipment are provided.


AIRLINE TRAINING MATERIALS

In the United States, airlines are required to provide the flight attendants with FAA-approved training, which includes safety-related subjects and proficiency testing on various emergency skills. This training is required during their 'initial training.'

Flight attendants are typically instructed to use the mooring line to tie rafts together, so as to prevent the rafts from becoming separated or lost. Some training manuals direct the flight attendants to tie the rafts 15 - 25 feet [5 - 8 meters] apart to allow for wave action.

The typical training on ditching covers how to check and maintain the proper inflation of the raft buoyancy tubes, repair raft leaks and manually erect the protective canopy.

Flight attendants also are required by FAA to attend annual recurrent training. During that training, they must demonstrate their skills and competence in emergency procedures, ditching and water survival. The flight attendant manuals typically contain instructions concerning ditching evacuation, which includes the need for careful evaluation of the emergency situation before taking action.

In the typical training materials, the flight attendants are instructed to select and brief able-bodied passengers to help with such actions as retrieving the stowed life rafts and/or to relocate the slide/rafts, as necessary. Such volunteers are also to be directed to lead the exit process and to take command of the rafts or slide/rafts until a crewmember becomes available. The typical training manuals describe that after the initial preparatory steps are accomplished, the flight attendants would assume command of the evacuation process.

The flight attendants are typically directed to continue assessing the external conditions as the exits are activated and to redirect passengers to another exit if an exit or its attached slide/raft becomes unusable. Typically, specific flight attendants are designated to retrieve the ELT from the aircraft and to carry the ELT to a life raft. Other flight attendants are directed to ensure that the plane is entirely evacuated. The manuals are generally found to state that once the aircraft has been fully evacuated, the flight attendants should then release the slides/rafts from the aircraft and assume their command of the rafts.

Many differences can be found in the methods addressing individual passenger flotation. The use of flotation seat-cushions varies greatly. Some airlines direct passengers to hold the cushions in front of their bodies, others to rest their chins on the cushions, while others direct passengers to wrap their arms around the cushions with their hands grasping the outside loops. Other carriers suggest that passengers lie forward on the cushions, grasping and holding the loops beneath them, floating horizontally. There are no known cases of carriers considering rough seas, hypothermia, shock, unconsciousness or passengers falling asleep while relying on the seat-cushions.

The typical flight attendant training programs provide dissimilar procedures regarding the appropriate time to inflate life-vests. Some carriers train the flight attendants to direct passengers to inflate only one chamber of a two-chamber life-vest before leaving the aircraft, while other carriers direct the inflation of both chambers. Some carriers direct passengers to inflate their life vest by pulling the CO2 cylinder tabs, while a few training programs direct that life-vests be inflated only with the oral inflation tubes.

In reality, the vests should be tightened in the aircraft, with a prohibition against inflating the vests until water contact is imminent. It is possible that a passenger could fall and roll over an inflated vest in such a way as to fall off the side of a slide.

Similarly, there are divergent procedures taught for the donning of life vests. This is surprising, as carriers would be expected to comply with the manufacturer's recommendations. Some carriers teach their flight attendants to advise their passengers to tighten the life vest as much as possible; another carrier advises passengers to tighten the life vest only until they can put a clinched fist between their body and the vest. One carrier is known to instruct passengers not to tighten the vest at all. Experienced survivors report that a vest needs to be worn with the straps tightened to gain the optimum body position in the water.

Researchers have discovered that the special needs of infants, children, elderly and handicapped passengers typically receive minimal attention in the training materials they have reviewed.

Child / infant life-vests are rarely offered by carriers. Instead, many airlines train their flight attendants in a variety of methods to secure children in adult life vests. A common method is to have the parent strap the child in an inflated adult life vest, holding the child in his/her lap. Although some airlines are known to provide a combination child-restraint/flotation device, most airlines rely on passengers to provide their own approved child restraints. However, these will typically NOT float and will not accommodate a child wearing an inflated vest. Obviously, a takeoff/landing accident into the water would immediately pose a serious risk to the life of a child.

Typically, minimal guidelines are provided for water survival in airline training programs. However, more detailed information is typically discovered in the survival manuals packed in the life-raft survival kits.

Training programs can be expected to direct duties to be assigned to passengers by the flight attendants, including distress signaling, lookout duty for rescue vessels and aircraft, collecting drinking water, rationing food and bailing water.

Very few training manuals cover the topic of first-aid, specifically directed at the arena of ditching and water-survival. The typical rationale being that general first-aid is sufficient. There are no known flight attendant training manuals, which include the topics of hazardous marine life, adverse sea conditions, severe injuries, shock, seasickness, saltwater sores, sun blindness, personal hygiene and survivor mental attitude.

There are no known training programs addressing the topic of rescue procedures. The only known instruction is a generic comment directing flight attendants to wait in the raft until guidance is received from rescue personnel.

Given the obvious conclusions, there is a desperate need for air carriers to improve their general training for ditchings, particularly unplanned ditchings as a consequence of an aircraft landing short or overrunning the end of the runway.

While the basic information on pre-ditching communication is provided in the typical training manual is adequate for a controlled ditching, assuming plenty of time to prepare, there is a clear mandate for better Crew Resource Management [CRM] techniques to provide dynamic and timely communication and coordination among all crewmembers, especially during the earliest stages of emergencies in general, as well as for potential or actual ditching scenarios.

It is also typical of airlines to generally exclude the role of the pilots in the actual process of any emergency evacuation, or in the evacuation aftermath. Toward that end, study, procedural development and training are additionally indicated.

Industry-standardized intra-aircraft communication signals are needed to preclude confusion problems. It is an accepted fact that different emergency signals are taught by the various airlines. Therefore, employees who change companies, for any reason, such as a merger or buyout, are often re-trained in new procedures. This leaves the possibility of 'negative habit transfer,' with possible stress-related confusion as to procedures and signals during an emergency. The risk of confusion can be resolved if all airlines adopt a universal emergency communication style, procedures and signals.

Poor evacuation decisions are guaranteed to be the product of unrealistic ditching presentations. It is necessary to accurately address details of the more probable reality in the evacuation phase of ditchings. The details regarding the probable aircraft damage potential and the reasonably expected flotation time of specific aircraft models is particularly important to address.

Although each required piece of aircraft emergency equipment is typically described in the training manuals, differences in the storage compartment contents, their locations, and specific operating details and limitations of the emergency equipment may impair effective action by the flight attendants who are qualified on multiple aircraft. In the ditching scenario, such differences may impede crewmembers in moving stowed rafts to usable exits or slide/rafts from unusable exits to the desired doorways, even with the help of able-bodied passengers.

Many airlines locate emergency equipment throughout the passenger cabin. Those locations will make retrieval of needed equipment difficult at best in any evacuation. As a minimum, the megaphones need to be located within reach of the flight attendants, while seated at their assigned jump seat.

The minimal exit lighting requirements enhance the risk of delays, should anything go wrong during the deployment of slides and rafts. While flashlights are located at the exits, their use can be costly in terms of time.

All emergency equipment (notably survival manuals) must be made of waterproof materials, whenever practical.

Maximizing visual presentations in the carrier's training materials and manuals, or using dynamic video presentations, would also enhance safety. Whenever possible, differences in the instructions for emergency equipment utilization and survival kit contents should be eliminated, or clearly explained.

The contents of survival kits need to be standardized, relative to the geographic requirements. Likewise, survival training unique to seasons and geographic regions needs to be conducted and reinforced.

The standardization issue of personal flotation equipment needs to be reconciled within the entire industry. Presently, life-vests often differ in style and function from airplane to airplane, but they can also possibly vary within the same aircraft. Thus, the life-vest used for a preflight briefing may differ from the vests that passengers would actually use.

Again, the various air carriers offer conflicting advice to passengers on when and how to use the life vests. An industry-standardized procedure is needed for the inflation of life vests.

Instructions are also needed for the management of the elderly, injured or handicapped individuals for general emergencies and evacuations, as well as for ditching evacuations. The 'buddy-system' for assigning the preparation and evacuation assistance of children, handicapped or elderly passengers is potentially highly successful if effective procedures were also adopted for establishing the flotation means for these individuals.

Typically, the topic of survival is only discussed in the context of the survival kit. Although the survival kit contents may differ, the typical basic survival information needs to be expanded. It is common for environmental survival issues, injuries and mental attitudes of survivors/victims to be omitted. For example, passengers might exit the aircraft directly into the water, as opposed to boarding a life raft. Beyond the risk of hypothermia, the water may be contaminated with fuel, oil or hydraulic fluid. These fluids can impair vision, speech and hearing. If swallowed, even in small amounts, they can produce nausea and vomiting. These elements of trauma can compound the effect of shock or injuries, including open wounds or burns.

During the course of a ditching, the assurance of survival is found in effective life-raft management. The subjects such as weight distribution and capsizing need to be expanded. In cases where more than one raft is utilized, the management of 'flotilla' resources needs to be discussed in terms of realism. Basic safety rules need to be cemented in crewmembers' minds, such as the need for passengers to wear their life vests at all times. Various duties need to be assigned and shared.

It is also vitally important for the crew to secure all of the survival equipment and miscellaneous resources in the raft to prevent their loss in rough seas or if the raft capsizes. Ideally, it would be obviously beneficial for aircraft crewmembers to have the benefit of practice in righting a capsized raft during training, especially in the open water, if possible. Conceivably, other safety organizations might be able to provide supplemental safety training, such as the Coast Guard.

Crewmembers would also be better served with an understanding of basic raft survivability factors. For example, crewmembers can readily utilize such concepts as the seaworthiness produced by changes in freeboard (distance from the water's surface to the top of the raft's buoyancy tube). The teaching of such concepts would prepare crewmembers to maintain life-raft stability and flotation, especially with damaged life rafts.

Information concerning what to expect during rescue efforts is desperately needed. While most presume an open-water ditching with an ultimate helicopter rescue, a merchant vessel or Coast Guard Cutter are just as likely.

Crewmembers need operational information pertinent to the various types of rescue, including ships, aircraft drops and helicopters. Ideally, the crewmembers should have practice in the use of rescue equipment. Presently, rescue procedures and the use of rescue devices are not presented in the airline training classes. Much of this information is critical to crewmembers. For example, they need to know what to do if high winds or rotor wash from a rescue helicopter capsize the raft and how to manage the extraction of the survivors, if a rescue swimmer is not deployed from the rescue aircraft or ship.

A reasonable understanding of methods to maintain the morale of survivors is needed. For example, crewmembers need to outline the probable chain of events during the rescue phase. When a helicopter arrives, it may be operating by itself, able to accommodate only a certain number of passengers. The passengers need to be aware that the first survivors rescued need to be the injured, sick and infirm. Thereafter, the women-and-children should follow; the remaining survivors will have to wait for additional flights. Again, the crewmembers should also be reasonably familiar with the various types of rescue equipment and its application, so as to prevent injuries during the rescue operation.

The lack of training, practice or at least familiarization on rescue-related topics leaves the crewmembers at a loss for the required knowledge, skill or proficiency to assist with a rescue effort. Comprehensive water-survival training materials are typically readily available from civil sources and the U.S. military services (particularly the Coast Guard) and can be readily assembled into an effective airline-training program.

Common sense dictates that approved flotation-seat cushions need to be installed in all passenger-carrying aircraft to provide every passenger and crewmember with an auxiliary means of flotation in any type of ditching - not just for extended over-water flights.

Of particular interest is the outcome of a 1994 simulated ditching exercise, as well as comments from several accidents. These support the obviously needed improvements in airline training.

In a 1994 simulation exercise, seven airlines, several ditching-equipment manufacturers and 65 federal, state and local government agencies participated in a combined airport-disaster exercise for the Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport, Florida.

The exercise simulated the crash of a Lockheed L-1011 with 300 people on board. The crash scenario simulated a ditching in the Intra-coastal Waterway, moments after takeoff. The exercise simulated fifty fatalities and 250 `survivors,' floating in the water or clinging to aircraft wreckage, waiting for rescue.

The water-emergency demonstration generated the following observations from the participants. As you read these, bear in mind the pre-existing level of mental/emotional preparedness of the participating volunteers.

* 'Passengers' who could not hear the flight attendant's evacuation commands described the feeling of panic.

* Problems occurred with conflicting instructions given on the use of the life vests.

* Participants with baby carriers experienced numerous problems.

* The participants who had to exit the aircraft directly into the water were frightened and unsure of what to do after entering the water. [Imagine the confusion that description indicates during an actual ditching.]

* Participants had problems keeping the slide/rafts dry.

* No one assumed command, which resulted in problems with raft management.

* No one was assigned to be the lookout.

* The survival kits presented several problems such as the kit items were very hard to open, the survival manual was not waterproof, the sponge was too small and difficult to use, and the signal flare was hard to ignite. Once ignited, the raft was singed while participants used the flare.

* As participants' hands lost agility from the cold, items such as drinking water containers were almost impossible to open. [One can imagine the effect of more realistic environments, such as the North Atlantic.]

* Seasickness created problems.

* Personal hygiene was a major issue, especially for women.

* Participants stated that they felt cramped, tired and experienced anxiety after only a short time in the slide/rafts with strangers.

* There was no mooring line or ELT attached to the raft.

* Participants did not anticipate that the rescue helicopter rotor wash would be so severe.

* Participants were unfamiliar with equipment used for rescue.

* Participants did not realize that they could not be picked up from inside the raft.

* Participants did not realize that a rescue swimmer was not always dropped from the helicopter to aid with rescue."

From the exercise, in particular, flight attendants remarked that better training should be developed concerning rescue procedures, rescue-equipment usage and the boarding of slide/rafts in realistic sea conditions.

The flight attendants suggested that a checklist of water-rescue tasks (printed on waterproof paper) and thermal blankets should be added to the survival kits. The flight attendant participants also remarked that training materials should emphasize the wearing of life vests at all times, during the rescue phase, in particular.

The 'rescuers' in the exercise recommended procedures for making the rafts more visible in darkness. The rescuers stated that their night-vision equipment easily detected the flashlights provided in survival kits. However, they recommended that the ditching/survival training should require lookouts to frequently shine a flashlight in the fashion of a beacon to enhance the visibility of the survivors to rescuers.

In summary, the ditching and water survival studies consistently suggested needed changes in the FAA approved cabin crewmember training. Those recommendations come from studies ranging from the 1980s through 1998. The key findings in such studies is that despite the rare occurrence of ditchings, aircraft crewmembers should still be prepared to competently direct passengers in a ditching and to immediately employ all available resources. Such competence is not only critical for planned ditchings, but also when the ditching is unexpected, and survival depends on timely and competent decisions under adverse conditions.


CONCLUSION

It is first necessary to prevent incidents, emergencies and accidents. The background factors are all too easy to control and change. However, history continues to teach that those very factors often go uncontrolled, leading to an 'event.'

We can only observe the lessons of past events, noting general human tendencies for particular expected responses, understanding the basic human response foundation. Thus, we are at least armed with the benefit of some measure of understanding and what to anticipate when people are faced with their own mortality and other peoples' responses in an emergency scenario.

Hopefully, the lessons learned thus far in aviation emergencies will enable people to operate with some pragmatic basis toward more effective understanding and decision making while under stress. Most importantly, it is hoped that the information provided will enable all to assist and enable those who have put their faith in the various safety systems and the flight professionals.

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