ANATOMY OF AN EMERGENCY
Written by
Captain Ralph W. Omholt


INTRODUCTION


The paradox in modern airline operations is that the aviation industry has failed to learn the lessons derived from the design, operation and sinking of the Titanic, in 1912. We now approach 100 years of history, repeating the same formula for disaster, brilliantly illustrated by a terrific Hollywood movie. Yet, today, we still see design shortcuts and managerial mistakes being made in the light as the cost cutting and attempted profit reaping of the Titanic tragedy. Not surprisingly, the result is the same - tragic and unnecessary deaths.

We also see the nearly identical failures in the onboard crew teamwork, resulting in air disasters, instead. Today that teamwork is a science, referred to as Crew Resource Management, or, CRM, researched and developed by NASA. Without explanation, the FAA has gone on record as refusing the National Transportation Safety Board's (NTSB) pleas to implement the practices of CRM at the cockpit level; the only place it has any relevance or effect. We repeatedly witness CRM failings behind incidents and accidents, and disasters.

The worst disaster in aviation history - the collision of two B-747s - illustrated the potential for disasters caused by crew teamwork (CRM) failings; yet the FAA all but refuses to address the CRM issue in a dynamic manner. Most recently, the combined 99 fatalities in American flight 1420 and Alaska flight 261 punctuated the desperate need for CRM; yet the FAA still refuses to budge.

Conversely, successful examples of safety, effected by CRM, are methodically overlooked, almost 'buried.' The UA-232 accident (Sioux City crash) is the only known exception of any prominence. Paradoxically, the FAA illustrates the UA-232 accident as an example of CRM, while refusing to actually implement CRM in the cockpits. Thus, the FAA creates the illusion that they dynamically endorse CRM. Few positions could be further from the truth.

Given the mechanical factors, we are thus confronted with the terrible proposition that we must prepare for more disasters. Prevention by any means is the only solution. Awareness of the true reality is required, as then, only a difference can be made. With short-term profits being an economic fetish, information and awareness, with the threat of accountability - on a ledger-sheet or in a courtroom - seem to be the only tools.

The staggering reality is that those paying the 'pittance' fares to ride a bus across town or across country are entitled to a radically higher standard of safety than the airline passenger - anywhere. The bus driver's civil and legal rights as a wage earner are far superior to those of an airline captain.

Yet, we may be certain, for the moment, that more incidents, accidents and disasters will continue to happen. Hence, the core of the following material is intended to give an appropriate in-dept insight into that time, "when things go wrong." The following presentation is intended to cover the mechanical, psychological and emotional aspects of an emergency, so as to render a reasonably complete presentation of the complexity of airline emergencies.


AIRLINE EMERGENCIES

Everyone who has a responsibility for airline safety needs a clear understanding of previous emergencies as well as reasonably expected human response under stress. That knowledge is needed to effectively direct the desired response of individuals, control small groups or possibly to manage a crowd.

Human response in emergencies is highly varied and unfortunately unpredictable. Aircraft accidents are rare and very little research has been conducted in the aviation emergency and disaster environment. It is simply impossible to predict what any individual, or group is likely to do in a given set of circumstances. Suffice it to say, that emergencies and accidents rarely have reliable similarities.

Airline emergencies have a maddening characteristic; they are extremely mobile. An entire scenario can be played out in flight, with an imminent disaster avoided in flight, allowing an aircraft to continuing on to its original destination. An actual accident can occur en route, involving anything from a mid-air collision to a bomb explosion. The actual accident can occur on land or in the ocean. Statistically, most accidents happen within a few miles of an airport, however, there is obviously no guarantee. The worst-case scenario is an accident far from civilization, where survivors must wait for rescue - if it ever reaches them in time.

An amazing irony confronts the airline industry in that the pertinence of the popular movie, "Titanic" is technically accurate to an extreme as a depiction of a program for disaster, from the contributing background factors, through the depictions of human responses, ranging from the background to the aftermath. Yet, few in the aviation industry seem to have learned from that, or any disaster.


The issues to be explored in this material include -

* The background factors in emergencies.

* The role of passengers in emergencies.

* The four active phases of an emergency.

* The emotional and psychological impact.

* The variability and unpredictability of human response.

* The impact of stress on decision-making.

* The critical requirement for information and effective communication.

* The importance of leadership in emergencies.

* The dynamics of aircraft evacuations.


EMERGENCY
- Defined

For many of us an emergency can be simply defined as:

"An event, or set of events, which disrupts our normal day-to-day routine." We are all familiar with minor 'road rage' and the tears and words of anger over the classic tube of toothpaste, squeezed in the middle.

An emergency, as we normally regard the term in a life threatening sense, can erupt suddenly, or evolve over a considerable period of time. An emergency can obviously result in physical damage and injury to people; possibly leading to the loss of life.

The types of emergencies and their causes vary to an extreme. No two emergencies are exactly the same. Some emergencies, such as acts-of-war, are deliberate and man-made. Other emergencies result from natural causes. For our purposes, we will concentrate on the airline community with its human error; and systems or mechanical failure.

The importance of the emergency issue addresses the fact that the aviation community, particularly the airline industry is quickly growing. Thus, more people are exposed to flight emergencies. Despite a good safety record, accidents and major disasters still happen. Beyond the mechanical factors, it is necessary to acknowledge the importance of behavioral issues. A large portion of human behavior knowledge comes from studies in emergency situation 'crowd management.'

Ironically, maritime studies and safety rules are far ahead of the aviation community. The maritime environment often provides additional rules and procedures for dealing with people's special needs and keeping order, reducing and avoiding panic.

In addition, such maritime codes call for personnel with the responsibility for the safety of passengers in an emergency situation, to follow approved training in crisis management and human behavior which includes, but is not limited to:

* Situational assessment and the provision of an effective response.

* Leadership during abnormal situations and emergencies.

* Identification of indicators and symptoms of excessive personal stress, and adverse stress response.

* Identification of the impact of stress on response and its effect on passenger and crew performance.

* Awareness of passenger and crew response/reactions in emergencies.

* Recognition of specific responses of passengers and crew.

* Recognizing the possibility, probability and character of panic.

* Recognizing and understanding the importance of timely, clear and concise information, instructions and reports, and the exchange of information and dynamic feedback.

* Effective communication of instructions requiring crew and passenger action.



In a sentence, the aviation community is far behind. The amazing tragedy is that the gap in safety is profit driven, just as in the Titanic affair. Interestingly, the maritime community learned the obvious lessons; appropriately applying them.


LEADERSHIP

An emergency can quickly become complex, given the various layers of leadership involved. An emergency can be as simple as a captain calling for a checklist, resolving the threat. It can be a dispatcher's decision to divert an aircraft due to weather, a mechanical problem or a bomb threat. Leadership can be the resolution of the final solution or the needed authority. While the captain is mechanically and legally the final authority, history proves that a captain's decisions can be swayed by political threat; another Titanic.

Effective leadership requires the ability to be flexible, the willingness to adapt one's belief system or style, to accommodate a unique or rapidly changing situation, and/or set of circumstances.

The gifted leader might be able to achieve the desired effect automatically, while others need training and the time to think before deciding on a course of action. Such courses of action are usually described as autocratic, democratic, or composite.

In environments such as aviation, teamwork (democratic or composite) is required. Normally, the captain is the team leader. Such a role often requires an autocratic or authoritarian style. Despite normal roles and responsibilities, the role of a good leader in emergencies is to effect a safe outcome, via teamwork.

The autocratic style or role is often visualized as an extreme style. Often it is feared out of tradition or prejudice, without good cause. In recent years, the science of Crew Resource Management (CRM) has been effected, with great success. Conversely, most of the accidents which we have recently witnessed, contained a major failing of that safety teamwork.

Where the individual asserts his/her style will depend on the immediate requirement, the task at hand, the immediate environment and the people involved. The inter-relationships will equally include their perceptions, understanding of the situation, preferences, prejudices and, of course, the time available.


POWER

Power is the primary resource, which enables a leader to influence individuals and groups. It is that power which is utilized to direct the efforts of others toward the achievement of the desired objective. Power comes in a variety of forms.


PERSUASION

Persuasive or coercive power effects compliance, rather than creating commitment, by eliminating perceived options and otherwise motivating people. In an emergency, that form of power creates action through fear of an adverse outcome such as accountability, pain, injury or death.

For example, "We must listen to the pilots and flight attendants if we want to survive. Calm down and just LISTEN!"


ASSUMPTION

Assumed power is based on the immediate leader's actual or perceived connection with influential or important people.

For example, "The captain has asked me to advise everybody that ..."


EXPERTISE

The effect of expertise is related to a leader's special knowledge and/or skills. It can be used very effectively to influence those who are aware that they do not have the same magnitude of knowledge and/or skills themselves. In most cases, people quickly display respect for expertise, which gains and facilitates compliance.

For example, "Attention everybody, I am a policeman. We have a case of sky-rage, but the individual has been subdued and secured, everything is going to be okay. Please go back to your seats."


UNIQUE INFORMATION

Information available to the immediate leader can be a source of power, if that leader has information that others need or want.

For example, "Attention please, we have to clear the aisles and the immediate seat area. My information is that we will probably have to evacuate the aircraft very quickly after landing."


POSITION

Position obviously wields the authority or rank, which the particular leader holds. Such position, and its implied power, is typically legitimized by some form status, backed by either tradition or a disciplinary code. The power of a unique position creates a situation where the leader is perceived as having the legitimate right to command; with the followers having a certain obligation to obey. Such power can be delegated.

For example, "Ladies and Gentlemen, this is your Captain speaking. Please give me your attention for a few moments. I'd like to bring you up to date on the situation. However, I would first ask you to remain calm, listen carefully and follow the instructions of the flight attendants..."


PERSONALITY

The element of personal power is a function of the perceived leader's inherent qualities such as image, charm, integrity and apparent courage; as well as such traits as decisiveness and bearing. The power comes from the individual's being liked and possibly admired. For the perceived leader, those elements will determine the level of commitment and compliance.

For example, imagine a Hollywood 'macho' hero on board saying, "Come on folks, we have a job to do. I have a good feeling about this. Just remember that we're going to have to work together to get through this thing."


REWARD

The power of reward is based on the leader's ability to give his followers some tangible outcome. This can be another form of coercive power, related to gaining a tangible positive outcome, as opposed to simply avoiding a negative outcome.

For example, "Just listen carefully, follow the instructions and we'll get through this thing okay. The drinks will be on me."


HUMOR

There is also power in tasteful and appropriate humor. Imagine the situation above with the final message being, "The captain's buying the drinks, but he doesn't know it yet." Those extra words can add a small, but important, element of positive energy.


ACTION

The final decisions on appropriate action are not often easy as no one can reliably predict an outcome and the needed action, particularly in the final seconds. Often no action will be the appropriate decision. If a safe landing is accomplished out of an emergency with no remaining threat, the decision can be as simple as a PA announcing, "Stay seated, stay seated!"

In an emergency, there are no hard rules as to what action is appropriate when dealing effectively with an individual, group or crowd. While there is always the risk of hindsight judgments, in the midst of an emergency, there are no rigid right or wrong answers, only the 'best judgment,' based on the best analysis of the situation in the given time frame.


BACKGROUND

In the FAA history, there is a safety poster, which displays a tall captain looking down at a young boy. The caption reads, "Son, good pilots don't have exciting stories." While the realists typically mock the caption, it expresses an admirable and desirable idealism.

The background of an emergency is typically complex. However, there are two elements, which particularly affect flight crews, education and training. While the combination of these two terms might seem redundant, bear in mind that pertinent flight crew knowledge can independently operate in the background of the formality of the training, which focuses on habits. Education serves to prevent an emergency, training serves the extrication from the emergency, once danger appears.

'Background' can involve the extremes of formal education such as an electrical engineering degree in the background of flight training. Thus, that engineer-pilot is better equipped to deal with a potential electrical problem. The aircraft manual might cite the limitation of re-setting a circuit breaker only twice. The specialized knowledge of the engineer-pilot might recognize that the 'popped' circuit breaker is a low power 'control' circuit breaker, which protects current going to a relay which, in turn, controls a 50 amp circuit.

Background can be as simple as the recollection of a 'rumor,' or a distant account. Imagine a co-pilot saying, "Captain, if memory serves me correctly, wasn't that the same circuit breaker that supposedly started that DC-9 fire that killed 30 people?" Another example, "Remember "X," he got time off / fired for not ..."

Crew training implies that once an event occurs, the flight crews quickly identify and accept an abnormal situation as a signal that something is wrong; needing the crews' action. From that point, the crews solve the problem, via trained habits, or move on to warn others or sound an actual alarm.

Passengers also get involved in many flight emergencies, however their situation is significantly different. As with flight crews, attitude makes the difference. In the accepted role of the courteous and compliant passenger, they may tend to deny a problem exists, or look for convincing reinforcement that something is actually wrong. To protect their self-image, passengers may resist communication or action, fearing embarrassment or refuse to admit to themselves that a problem potentially or actually exists. Fear may evoke denial, numbing the passenger to inaction, even when a potential or actual emergency exists.

There might be extraneous reasons for passenger inaction. For example, if one passenger is obviously to be classed as a 'minority,' gets drunk and is approaching 'disorderly,' an observant passenger might keep silent, rather than risk the accusation of prejudice. Such a situation could ultimately lead to a very dangerous sky-rage event.

It is common for 'deadheading' or 'commuting' airline employees to be seated among the passengers, with observation skills or supplemental expertise to offer. Surprisingly, that may not make a difference. In one accidental belly-landing, three 'deadheading' crew members later said that they were sure that the landing gear wasn't down - yet said nothing.

In many accounts, individuals confess strong suspicions well in advance of the onset of the threat itself. A copilot might later confess, "I heard the circuit breaker pop. I didn't approve of the captain resetting it without looking to see what it was or allowing a 'cooling' time, but I didn't want to get him mad at me."

In another scenario, "I knew the company was trying to save on fuel. I knew the weather forecast was bad, I knew the potential for the airport going to a single runway with a shift in the wind; I didn't ask for more fuel because I didn't want to create a 'hassle' with the dispatcher or the chief pilot."

Human psychology plays a major role in emergencies; particularly in the background. Even where appropriate action is taken to prevent an emergency, the decisions often involve a requirement for multiple threats before anything is said or done. The background becomes particularly fertile for an emergency in cases where the indicators are seemingly vague and/or ambiguous. A 'local culture' may induce psychological denial in response to the fear of potential embarrassment or retribution. This could be as simple as a copilot wanting the captain's respect or as complex as a pre-existing personality clash. The denial can potentially be a "team effort." Imagine the captain saying, "If we keep demanding more fuel, we're asking to get accused of some kind of union action." In such a case, the copilot might easily go along with the decision.

In the background, there are far too many profit-driven forces, which create and drive an emergency. The obvious deadly combination is on the order of maintenance or weather problems combined with a crew-rest problem.


Let's examine some prominent examples from history -

Swiss Air 111


Swiss Air flight 111 is a complex fatal tragedy, which barely deserves the term, "accident." It never should have been an emergency, let alone a tragedy. The minute details of the event itself are not well known, but sufficient information is available to illustrate a disaster, which should never have happened for many reasons.

1. The complexity of the aircraft design itself left the probability that the minimum required crew of two pilots could become so involved with an imminent disaster that the attendance to flight control would become minimal to non-existent.

2. The personal knowledge of the pilots as to the aircraft systems was deficient by virtue of the addition of a passenger entertainment system which was directly powered from one of the aircraft main power sources, as opposed to a more remote power source which could be easily isolated or protected from a catastrophic failure. Following the disaster, the suspect systems were immediately deactivated or removed in the surviving fleet of aircraft.

3. The failure of the company-training program to consider such a possibility and give supplemental training to the pilots, which conceivably could have averted the disaster. If current indications are correct, appropriate knowledge could have led to the early deactivation of the correct electrical power source, allowing a safe landing.

4. The ignorance of the Swiss Air pilots as to the background money politics created by the U.S. White House. Those politics set the stage for the failure of safety authority. The particular document is Executive Order 12866. The Order contains a tongue-in-cheek provision that it is not intended to usurp any existing laws. While the existing safety laws were and are in full force and effect, their observance is selectively not observed; favoring corporate profits over safety.

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Alaska Flight 261

In a similar disaster, the pilots of Alaska Flight 261 were probably ignorant of the FAA regulations and the effective elements of Crew Resource Management (CRM). While a serious mechanical failure created an emergency under the FAA regulations, independently of pilot judgment, the corporate culture(identified by the media) compelled the pilots to over-fly several good airports, until the mechanical situation deteriorated; ultimately aircraft control was impossible. Basic rule 3 of CRM is, "Land as soon as possible."

On the heels of that accident, the company had two more incidents, which included very similar serious CRM failings. After the third incident, the pilot group apparently became self-educated, as the life-threatening incidents abruptly stopped. The Flight 261 disaster produced no significant changes made by either the FAA or the company.

In these incidents, one valuable and historically validated lesson had not been brought to the active attention of the pilots, "Land as soon as possible!"

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ValuJet Flight 592

A serious researcher of the VJ-592 crash will walk away bewildered. The presented 'facts' don't make sufficient sense for a responsible researcher to come to a well-defined conclusion. Too many reliable facts were left out of the official report; many of the presented 'facts' were impossible.

However, the pilots, we can be sure, did their best under the circumstances. With the benefit of 20/20 hindsight (armed with the history of subsequent similar events), the same lesson is apparent - CRM rule 3, "Land as soon as possible." While the ValuJet pilots were attempting to do just that, the reliable data indicates one tragic fact, they dutifully asked permission and for directions. The associated time factor probably made the life-death difference.

We may be certain that the VJ-592 pilots didn't and couldn't have known the magnitude of the threat they faced. It is well known that the situation quickly deteriorated with the infamous "Murphy's Law" catching the crew in many ways. The pilots had to have been totally bewildered after the first few seconds of the emergency.

In all likelihood, the pilots did not have a historical appreciation for the potential for rapid deterioration of situations involving electrical problems; or any form of fire threat aboard an aircraft. Their ignorance left them abandoned to fate.

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THE OBVIOUS QUESTION


Interestingly, in the extended background of events such as these, there was another element lurking which still has not been adequately addressed. That element being the obvious question, "If we know that when pilots quickly land, they save lives and aircraft, why is it that so many pilots still elect to continue to the extreme of a serious incident or a tragic disaster?"

In a sentence, the answer undoubtedly lies in an accountant's biased spreadsheet. While it is important to maintain corporate viability, air disasters do not justify the short-term profits, which seem to repeatedly enhance the careers of airline executives and bureaucrats. A spreadsheet simply cannot readily depict safety as an investment; it's shown only as an expense.

If it can be said in a single sentence, pilots, in general, are afraid of losing their image due to punishment, rumor and innuendo; hence they often take unnecessary risks.

Many years ago, the U.S. Air Force produced a training film called, "The Failing Aviator." The film title was designed to get the pilots' attention; it did. The film presented an almost humorous account of pilot sociology. Those who saw it never forgot it. The film portrayed the pilot fixation on their image, displacing safety in the process. It is long past time for a similar film to be presented, entitled, "The Psychology of Safety."

Amazingly, the cost of most common sense safety items can be readily recouped. If the reality were well known, the traveling public would have little trouble with the idea of their pre-paying the costs in their ticket price. The lingering question remains, "Even if the passengers pre-paid the expense, would the money be used for the needed changes, or diverted into the profit coffers?" The Pan Am Flight 103 history leaves that as a valid question.

It must also be asked, "With the money in hand, will the changes be made in time?"

Given the high probability of more airline disaster, we must be aware of the 'real time' human factors involved in an emergency.


GENERAL HUMAN BEHAVIOR

Like ocean-going passenger ships and local ferries, airliners also carry a large number of people - they are also, to a certain degree, 'crowds.' Thus, we must examine the details of crowd behavior and why crowds are not just interesting, but sometimes dangerous in their own right. It is necessary to examine the details of the human behavior models and the general ideas and the assumptions held about crowds.

Crowds earn their interest because of the potential tragedy for something dangerous or deadly happening. Most importantly, because of the potential number of victims.

In emergencies, crowds are significant because they can be either 'well behaved;' or, they can play a direct causal role, as well as an incidental role in incidents, emergencies, accidents and disasters.

The greatest concern with regard to crowds is the element of panic leading to the crushing of those slow to respond. There is also the fear that the mass of passengers can fail to properly react or communicate important instructions to others, so as to effect the desired action.

Conversely, a non-reactive sub-crowd can play an instigating role. During an aircraft evacuation, if a significant percentage of passengers decide to take their personal belongings with them, they may present an obstruction to the remainder of the evacuees, inducing a panic reaction. In reality, that is a rather common occurrence.

The direct 'crowd' role in an emergency requires knowledge, methods, systems and procedures to ensure that a crowd is unlikely to cause a disaster. The incidental role played by crowds during an emergency is a much more complex problem to deal with and manage.

Obviously, not all groups or crowds are the same. Any crowd is typically made up of individuals who have come together for a wide range of different reasons. Their attitudes, roles, actions, and reactions to any events will differ with a broad number of factors, including age, status, sex, experience and expectations.

Each setting containing a large number of people is likely to have certain aspects of crowd behavior in common with other settings. However, different factors will result in behaviors unique to each setting. The same people might behave at least slightly differently when they are on a narrow-body aircraft than on a wide-body aircraft. Their reaction in the gate area will be different than when they are seated on the aircraft.

Crowds are complex; each one is somehow different in one way or another. Despite the identifiable differences, researchers have identified a number of factors, which influence crowd behavior. Some of the factors include their upbringing, their every-day 'roles,' how they perceive themselves in relationship to other people and certainly, their expectations in a given situation. People in general have certain 'rules' associated with their personal roles - how they behave, relative to others, and what they expect, possibly demand, in return.

The key is in controlling the element of fear.

Researchers have also illuminated a number of myths held about crowds and crowd behavior.


CROWD MYTHS

The concern regarding 'mob mentality' is found in the commonly held that individuals in crowds undergo a psychological change - they mysteriously transform, coming to obey some instinctive 'unified mass mentality law'. In doing so they become somewhat irrational, childlike and primitive.

Most people have their own concept of the term, 'mob mentality.' Myth, holds that crowds become a crazy, random and unmanageable body. The fear is that crowds they are highly suggestible or anti-social; not wanting to be managed. While there is certain phenomena associated with crowd behavior, the myth of inherent mob mentality is simply not valid.

While the concern over 'mob mentality' is founded in fact, valid facts and history defy any 'laws' regarding the predictability of crowds, especially in emergencies. However, there remains the fear that if a crowd were indeed to become crazy and revert to a 'unified mass mentality law,' then under certain circumstances this would lead, almost inevitably, to lethal panic behavior. Admittedly, that sometimes happens, even on aircraft.

Managing a crowd isn't to be feared as being virtually impossible. Fortunately for flight crews, research reveals that people retain much of their individuality and that they typically abide by their every-day roles; and the constructive rules by which they normally live.

Crowds, even in emergencies, have their underlying individual pre-existing roles and their own associated rules which guide their behavior. Superimposed on these are those unique 'rules of the passenger'. That is to say that passengers generally behave exactly as 'expected.'

The mixture of personal roles and rules continues to basically guide and direct individual behavior in emergencies, just as in normal circumstances. Thus, that behavior is worth considering in more detail.


ROLES AND RULES FOR PASSENGERS

Passenger behavior is a function of a set of pre-determined 'normal' roles, whether wife, husband, mother or soldier. These roles embody the primary rules, which guide the role, itself. The combination determines the primary behavior, what the person is, or is not, expected to do; how they will probably behave. Indirectly, they define how other people are expected to behave in return. For example, a large male passenger will get a more rapid response when he says; "excuse me," than will a frail and elderly lady.

As another example, a married woman in the role of the onboard 'wife' might expect the accompanying husband to make any requests and decisions on her behalf. Should they be separated, when an emergency occurs she might stop in place, waiting for his reappearance, according to the pre-existing rules of their marriage. If he doesn't appear and if her survival needs are not recognized, she might not receive the desired guidance, thus she might remain in place, possibly as an obstruction to someone trying to make an exit.

We can therefore see that 'normal' rules and associated roles get superimposed on behaviors related to the normal range of behaviors of the 'passenger' role, even in a 'crowd.'

Passenger behavior will also be a function of their perceived role as 'passenger.' This will be, in part, be a matter of the impression of the crew and the airline. A discount carrier with dirty airplanes and an unfriendly crew will not evoke the same response as a larger 'quality' carrier. The passenger attitudes and opinions, as a group or as individuals, will significantly dictate their primary actions and interactions. Ultimately the 'confidence' factor will dictate the response to crew instructions; whether normal or in an emergency.

Managing passengers who are confident in the airline and its crew is radically different from passengers with serious doubts. A low passenger confidence factor is likely to produce a low emergency response factor. If the flight crewmembers strike passengers as unhappy, ill informed and impotent under 'normal' circumstances, the emergency scenario will likely be difficult - at best.

As a variant, the interaction of pilots and flight attendants might make the difference, if the flight attendants are seen to be backed up by the pilots. That proposition assumes an overriding faith in the pilots.

The interactive roles and rules will reasonably guide behavior in an emergency, just as in normal every-day life. In their own manner, people will attempt to assess the reality, and then make decisions as to what to do. People will do this in the light of a number of things, including how they view the airline and it's staff.

Within a complex situation there are many who have the unexpected potential to influence the behavior of other people. In another disaster scene, the legend of the Titanic's "Unsinkable Molly Brown" is an example of passenger perception. An aggressive but sensible passenger took effective charge; out-performing a ship's crewman.

It is far more productive to think of crowds in ordered terms, as opposed to allowing one's expected probability to shift to the extreme notion (fear) that a group of passengers would automatically react in the fashion of an open-air crowd, transforming into an uncontrollable mob, liable to blind panic. Instead, attention should be focused on the important issues related to the more probable movement of people once an emergency is underway - inspired and directed by the trained crisis leadership of the crew. Regardless of its source, such leadership is critical to safety.

Similarly, it must be asked, "What are the normal operational roles of the crew, and what is their influence on passenger behavior as an emergency develops?"


ROLES AND RULES FOR CREWMEMBERS

The crewmembers also have their own roles and related rules on the aircraft, which guide their behavior. The 'human' behavioral rules are also directed by corporate mandates in the form of policies, procedures and cockpit checklists. The crews' response is well practiced under normal operating circumstances and an unfortunately limited number of emergency drills.

Actual emergency situations are different. While these events are rare, the associated special roles and rules, which govern crew behavior under these circumstances, are typically not well practiced as an integrated crew. The obvious threat in that fact still lingers, for lack of meaningful change by the industry.

The more obvious question asks, "How easy it is to switch from the 'normal' mode to the 'emergency' mode?"

Evidence from available histories suggests that it is far more difficult than we care to think about. Basically, during an aircraft emergency, some people will continue to act in terms of the role they occupy under normal circumstances, as opposed to immediately reverting to an 'emergency' mentality and role, with an appropriate and effective response, even trained crewmembers.

With the announcement of an emergency, a flight attendant may briefly continue an unimportant but routine duty. A pilot may find a diversion in an otherwise routine cockpit duty or fail to recognize the demand for an instant and/or desperate response. Any delay, however brief, can potentially be costly.

The tendency to stay in the safety illusion of the 'normal' role can be so powerful that in extreme cases people will continue to ignore obvious warnings that there may be a potentially disastrous situation rapidly developing. Likewise, communication might be hindered or prevented by the related psychological denial mechanism.

Currently, the typical social/professional compartmentalization of the pilots and flight attendants doesn't lend itself to integrated teamwork. One of the more entertaining airline stories told is that of the pilots being interrupted after takeoff by a passenger banging on the cockpit door, wanting a cup of coffee, as the flight attendants had been left behind. Surprisingly, that has happened more than once.

Often, an examination of ditching training reveals that the pilots have no appreciable idea as to how to inflate and set up a life raft or manage the survival resources. Thus, pilots are often left to delegate authority to the flight attendants - in the best circumstances.

There is the distinct probability of the pilots being seriously injured, trapped or killed in the cockpit in an accident. Thus the flight attendants may be 'on their own.' Interestingly, the flight attendants are typically trained to be autonomous, toward that end, and will experience difficulty responding to pilot instructions after the initial accident. In perverse airline humor, it is commonly remarked that, "Pilots are the first to arrive at the scene of an accident."

Often, flying incidents and accidents involve fire. The human response to fire is typically on the borderline of panic. Thus, crewmembers are faced with ensuring passenger safety; putting their own safety in second place. Ideally the opportunity will allow all to escape.

The traumatic nature of an accident can quickly sway anyone's decision-making and response; crews are no different. Particularly in the cockpit, head injuries are likely, with unpredictable and confusing results.

One of the fears of pilots is that the flight attendant autonomy - due to the status, authority, economic and gender differences - will result in the pilots being abandoned in an evacuation. History proves that fear to be valid.

Flight attendants have a clearly defined 'normal' role. It's possible that they might call the cockpit for assistance, rather than closely investigate a smoke source as a potential fire; such an investigation being outside their perceived 'normal' role. In the meantime, the fire could be actual and growing rapidly. If it is their habit to personally visit the cockpit, the flight attendants may walk to the cockpit to make the request for assistance, costing precious time.

In the normal passenger cabin protocol, a flight attendant may insist on only reporting safety concerns to the 'lead' flight attendant, not following through to make sure the message actually gets to the cockpit, even though a clear threat was perceived. Worse, when the flight attendant is satisfied that nothing is being done; he/she might not follow up with an independent interphone call to insist that a needed response is given.

In many cases, a failure to follow up may be a function of the flight attendant sociology. A domineering senior flight attendant may insist on total control of the passenger cabin. With sufficient fear being generated, that local protocol may be observed to the endangerment of all on board.

The timing of an event can have a significant effect on the outcome. If flight attendants are focused on a demanding task, in order to get them to deviate from their 'normal' role, they might require detailed, passionate and/or persistent input from a passenger to be persuaded that something is actually wrong.

In many cases, people will readily switch into their emergency roles. However, the power of their normal roles can still exert an influence. For example, a flight attendant may attend to the needs of 'her' passenger section, ignoring the plight of others in a different section, out of habit.

The effect of the pilots' routine roles also contains the inertia to extend into their response in emergencies - even if this is potentially damaging. For example deferring to a flight attendant's assigned role, as opposed to intervening by personally directing a passenger to safety. This is especially true if they do not have the benefit of proper and adequate integrated crew training.

A major difference between passengers and the flight crew is that, passengers need to be informed as to their roles in an emergency, whereas the crew must be very clear as to theirs; in normal and emergency situations. Flight crews are assigned the safety obligations and expectations, reinforced by accountability.

Ideally the crew professional training and responsibility contains a well-defined and effective breakdown of duties. Only then can the crew be certain as to which role and associated set of rules to adopt when coping with the realities of passenger management during an emergency.


PASSENGER MANAGEMENT

No two groups of passengers are exactly the same, even if they appear to have come together for similar purposes. Charter flights are not particularly different from public flights. In spite of certain expected variables, a number of common problems have been identified, with respect to passengers.


COMMUNICATION

With large numbers of passengers, some forms of communication become retarded, becoming increasingly difficult as the numbers increase. Simply stated, there are more people to effectively communicate with, in the same time span.

Large groups of people diffuse communication, potentially with the result that those receiving important information may not be in a position to act on it. For example, in a panic evacuation, instructions given to those who are being crushed at the front of the line may not be able to comply with the necessary instructions from the passengers/crew at the back who are causing the problem, in their rush to exit.


MOVEMENT

Larger numbers of people magnify the degree of inertia. More time is required to get large numbers of people to begin the required preparations and move toward safety.

Similarly, large numbers demand more time to stop moving and / or to change direction. This is the same syndrome as the classic 'rush hour' highway traffic, moving in the fashion of an accordion.


DISTRACTION

Despite the obvious assumption that emergency warnings will focus passenger attention to a maximum, there may be serious distractions such as indications that the situation is about to evolve from a warning environment to the onset of the actual emergency. Simply stated, fear will block the reception of vitally important information.

There can also be 'in-house' distractions such as hysteria or an angry over-reaction. One of the biggest distractions will be the leap to personal cell phones to call loved ones, the company or the media. That particular tendency is likely to be not only uncontrollable, but possibly dangerous, as cell phone signals are known to generate signals of sufficient power to interfere with navigation and warning systems. (Another 'plausible denial' matter.)


RESPONSIBILITY

A large number of people are susceptible to confusion and uncertainty as to who has the responsibility for decision-making. The associated confusion and uncertainty regarding responsibility will retard movement still further.

Once an emergency is in progress, details become vague, while interactions become more complicated. Often, passengers and crew may have to respond in ways which are unique, or beyond any behavior standard they have previously imagined or experienced. Their desired behavior, particularly their willingness to follow crew instructions, may depend to a large extent on how confident they are that the crew can actually cope with the situation.

It is elementary that in order for the flight crew to cope with an emergency, the everyday operation needs to be efficient and effective. A crew, which does not inherently function well in normal operations, will probably function even worse in an emergency. It is reasonable that passengers will entertain that same suspicion.

In situations containing role ambiguity, new and effective teamwork will not likely appear. If communication lines are normally poor they will probably continue to be poor. If the required normal roles and responsibilities are not well defined, they can be expected to continue in a similar form, in an emergency. Under such circumstances, any patterns of confusion experienced by passengers and crew can only be reasonably expected to intensify.

The complexity of role interaction, with the guidance provided by procedures for passenger control should take the major issues into account.

The instructions, help and advice given to groups should consider the mix of passengers. The selection of 'able-bodied-assistants' should be made to enhance the safe outcome. The competent management of passengers will have a dramatic impact on people's behavior and the final outcome of an emergency.

The roles and responsibilities of the pilots and cabin crew need to be well defined in advance, understood and accepted. Whenever possible, the individual's responsibility in an emergency should be reasonably consistent and compatible with the roles they normally carry out.

The visibility and importance of authority figures should never be underestimated. The passengers receiving instructions from the crew need, and are entitled to, confidence in the crewmembers.

The early stage of an emergency is crucial. Without constant guidance and updating or reinforcement, people will get mentally and emotionally 'lost' in the interim time, questioning whether something unusual or actually threatening is happening. The 'inertia' effect of large numbers of people, and the inherent difficulty in communicating with them, the quality and thoroughness of early information is vital to the outcome. The passengers need all reasonable assurances as to their safety.

All communications should contain sufficient, detailed and obviously useful information to enable people to make a personal commitment as to what to do, at the appropriate time. That might be as simple as patiently waiting for the stairways and buses on the ramp. Most importantly, if an evacuation is necessary, they need to know the magnitude of urgency, how rapidly and by which route they need to exit, along with a contingency plan if things don't go as expected.

In unique circumstances, it may also become prudent to illustrate the cockpit as a viable or primary exit route.


THE HUMAN ROLE IN EMERGENCIES

WARNING PHASE

Borrowing from an old philosophy of the Strategic Air Command, to achieve the ultimate goal of aviation safety, it is prudent to rely on the idea that accidents are always caused by human beings. While exceptions exist, they are rare. By always thinking in terms of accidents being caused, they can best be anticipated and prevented.

Awareness is the primary element in the warning phase. The awareness, born of professional knowledge, that a pre-existing condition poses a threat, is the most crucial element, as disaster is most easily prevented at the beginning of the operation.

Beyond awareness of the status quo, recognition of the significance of any actual or probable changes (such as the weather), requires awareness to assess the significance of such information.

Some emergencies develop quickly, totally overwhelming those involved, giving the victims little chance to save themselves, cry for help or issue warnings to others. Other emergencies, however, develop over longer periods of time, with those responsible for the safety of others having more than adequate opportunity to issue a warning.

Warnings are inherently intended reduce the possibility of threat and/or harm to others. Long-term warnings serve to prevent disaster from striking unexpectedly, allowing potential victims to take any necessary or possible actions to prevent or minimize any consequences. In the aviation environment, the concern is expressed in terms of "...persons or property." Even with adequate time, alerting those who are potentially at risk can be difficult.

Such difficulty can be simply an inability to communicate with the affected people. The most daunting situations involve warnings, which meet the barrier of ignorance, or the conscious unwillingness to communicate warnings, or even to communicate information, which can act as a resource for the formulation of warnings.

Emergencies are normally either historical or evolutionary. Earthquakes are typical of the historical type. We can be certain that they will occur, we can't predict their exact location, time or magnitude. Historical emergencies are commonly referred to as "acts of God."

Evolutionary emergencies typically have the hand of mankind involved. The "Great San Francisco Fire" is an example. The fire began as a major earthquake. However, earthquakes were bad for business, so history only seems to focus on the resulting fire. Hence sufficient business was subsequently drawn to San Francisco in the earthquake aftermath to rebuild the city. Today, the local residents are still faced with the uncertainty of the historically reliable event of catastrophic earthquakes. Yet, the victims-in-waiting are on location as volunteers. History has yielded sufficient lessons to create planned emergency responses, reinforced by actual drills.

In aviation, emergencies are quite similar to actual accidents; their origins typically exist prior to the crew approaching the aircraft itself.

If a well-qualified crew can be certain that they have a good aircraft, good weather and sufficient fuel; the program for a safe flight is set. That's the intended scenario; the threat enters when any of those (or other pertinent factors) are changed. Again, the awareness of the status quo, threat probability and accountability make the difference.

Normally the human factor is the weak link. Aircraft are normally well designed; crews are required to be well qualified, sufficient fuel is mandated by regulation. Airports are required to meet certification requirements.

Then something changes, with human beings abruptly making local life-death decisions. The tragedy is that most such occurrences are profit driven.

The human element is also the difference whether or not the disaster chain of events gets broken to totally diffuse a threat. God bless the pilot who maintains, "I'm like Woody Allen, death doesn't bother ME; I just don't want to be there when it happens."

Dynamic (as opposed to 'potential') emergencies are normally evolutionary, with four phases:

* Warning

* Onset

* Reaction

* Aftermath


WARNINGS

Recognition is the key element of an emergency. Recognition can be the historic identification of a similar circumstance, a change in the status quo with a reflexive question or the brief illumination of an annunciator warning light. Following the most subtle warning, the response makes the difference. It can be an innocuous question, "Did you see an annunciator light flash?" The other pilot may have seen it also. If not, awareness is heightened. A change in the sound of airflow can warn of the inadvertent and imminent penetration of a line of thunderstorms, which was not forecast or detected in time.

Human psychology again plays a key role in the warning phase. Even when individuals accept the fact that something is amiss, they can be mysteriously reluctant to address the matter, themselves. The reasonings range from raw denial to fear of embarrassment or even harassment.

Often, a personal history may play a key role in the warning phase to either aggressively address the situation, or to allow it to evolve. Imagine the thought process, "The last time I told a copilot I thought he looked too tired to fly, I was accused of implying that he was actually drunk. I'm not going to risk that again. I've seen tired copilots before. We'll make it, just fine."

Irrational fear of repercussions can be a deterrent in the warning phase. Following a disaster, statements are commonly heard to the effect of, "I just didn't want to be the first one to say something." On a more local level is a similar fear concerning being the first couple on the dance floor. However irrational, such reactions are sufficiently historic to make them reasonably predictable. Fear-based reactions can be expected of pilots, flight attendants, ground staff and passengers.

Imagine a captain's frustration when a flight attendant says, "The other two girls also think the passenger is getting too drunk. Would you mind saying something to him?" Group denial manufactured a safety threat - now the captain is 'put on the spot.'

Valid fear serves as a healthy warning. This form of fear could range from mistrust in the weather forecast, known fatigue, aircraft condition, etc.

Denial can play a deadly role with respect to the time requirement of the situation. Many a flight deck crew has been dismayed that a flight attendant would walk to the cockpit to personally report a serious condition, with the interphone readily available.

Another element is the crew confidence factor. Flight attendants often confess a serious problem uniquely being dealt with by flight attendants, because they didn't trust the cockpit to 'get involved.'

In sardonic humor, the story is told of a flight attendant who told a surprised captain after the first landing of a three-day trip, "Boy, this is obviously going to be a long trip. We used all three fire bottles on that trash-can fire." The FAA inspector on the jump seat beat the captain by asking, "Did you think to mention it to the captain while it was still going on?" Three flight attendants were reported to have been appropriately fired. Unfortunately, the issue is not reported to have been investigated in terms of WHY they didn't they call the cockpit. Hence, the confidence factor still ranks highly among disaster precursors.

In another instance, the aircraft was accidentally taken off course, past the destination city by ATC. While the passenger map display clearly indicated that the aircraft had passed the intended destination and was obviously off its intended course, the flight attendants said nothing. Only the pilots were unaware of their actual situation.


EMERGENCY ONSET

Once an emergency is in progress, three elements play a role. The first is the magnitude of threat, with an associated probability of disaster. The second is the compounding of events to potentially guarantee disaster. The third element is composed of the resources to extricate those involved from the emergency.


RESPONSE

When a situation is clearly an the emergency, the people involved may react in denial, reluctant to accept or communicate the fact that a threat actually exists. Someone responsible might detect the threat, but keep silent to protect their job. The initial response can dangerously slow. The underlying reasons for such a reaction are usually discovered to be complex, many and also varied. The response to threat is most often deeply ingrained in either the individual or the culture, whether it is trade, corporate sociology or even gender based. Such factors typically exist in the core of the individuals everyday life, but certainly before the flight begins. For example, a mechanic might dismiss a captain's concern over a mechanical issue, discounting the complaint in the light of, "another crybaby pilot."

There are also those, for example, who automatically accept risk as an expected element. These individuals are often the potential crisis-recovery leaders. This group of individuals often accepts the element of risk on the assumption that everyone else appears to accept it. The risk then takes on the aura of being 'acceptable.' Obviously, that can be unhealthy, to an extreme.

Often such individuals are mentally and emotionally well prepared for any crisis. Typically, these people have a family history which leaves them so well prepared to accept and deal with crisis, that they give little thought to danger, without evaluating the risk potential in each flight situation. These individuals also carry the liability of being too willing to accept instigating factors, which later lead to a problem, such as an intoxicated passenger, for example. Risk tolerance is typical of those with a military background.

Another group of individuals, however, may be pre-disposed to deny that either risk or an actual threat exists. Such denial is often a very powerful sub-conscious psychological mechanism, which can be extremely difficult to overcome. The attitudes expressed by such individuals can have a negative 'contagious' effect, adversely swaying the concerns of those whom might otherwise be predisposed to threat alertness.

The magnitude of such denial can also express itself in a counter-productive 'salesmanship,' during a crisis. The strength of the associated statements can be inherently dangerous. A smoke alarm might induce a flight attendant to assert, "Don't worry about it, it's probably somebody smoking 'pot' in the lav. I've seen this before." As a consequence, a critical response with an accompanying call to the cockpit is delayed.

The combination of acceptance and denial can create serious problems for the pilots and the entire crew. Passengers again play a key role. For example, during a normal flight, some passengers might study the safety cards, listen to the safety briefing 'rules' and in general, pay attention to any printed notices.

Conversely another group of passengers methodically might not. (Studies suggest that approximately 50% don't study the safety cards to any degree.) Neither of the groups may be particularly motivated in their personality 'style.' One group may have simply accepted the risks involved with something of a passing interest in them, while the second group desperately doesn't care to be advised or reminded of the risks.

Should it come to an actual emergency, the risk-accepting group may be quicker to identify problems, taking any warnings seriously, while also being well prepared to appropriately act. Conversely, the second group may have prepared themselves to deny any risk and be subsequently slower to react, endangering themselves and others.


ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTING FACTORS

Whether one cares to discuss crew or passengers, the underlying factors influencing their behavior MUST be considered. In general, the first reaction to a warning is statistically often not the desired reaction, rather a defensive avoidance of the possibility of threat. The individual typically generates a disbelief which interferes with the requirement for action. When that happens, appropriate decisions often get transferred to others.

Add the psychological denial of danger to the fear of embarrassment. If the individual is at risk of being seen to over-react, the combination can easily result in the conversion of a problem into an emergency; brewing a disaster. Such is the particular risk if any warnings are in any way unclear, ambiguous or perceived to be so. Regardless of the influencing factors, a mistaken belief in the magnitude of the situation can be very deadly.

When a warning is perceived in its true sense, the outcome of a situation will depend on a list of factors. Will the situation be perceived as to its magnitude? Is the warning clear as to its exact nature? Will appropriate action be taken? These questions depend on several factors -


CREDIBILITY

Any obvious signs of authenticity, authority, as well as any known experience and/or expertise, will lend credibility to a warning. Crewmembers and passengers are likely to believe someone who is normally expected to have the best information on the situation. Ground staff is to be included in this concept.


COMMUNICATION AND CONTENT

The actual delivery, the means and tone by which the message is delivered, to whom and by whom are important factors. Any authority gives a message the element of credibility; ambiguity must be avoided, so as to preclude confusion and / or denial. In one disaster, the junior flight attendant delivered the message that they had smoke in the lavatory to the copilot. The message should have been delivered to the captain, describing "billowing" smoke.


AGE DIFFERENCE

Young people are often more likely to quickly respond to warnings than their older counterparts. Older people often take past experiences as an 'immortality license,' being more confident in all situations and less willing to react quickly. That statement should not be taken in the fashion of discounting age and experience. A young, freshly trained pilot might be willing to quickly shut down an engine - 'per the book.' The older pilot might delay such a situation, saying, "It's not on fire and it's packing it's own weight." Hence, age related experience can pays a significant dividend.


LOCAL SOCIOLOGY

'Isolated' individuals or even those working with peers or work groups containing an acceptance-approval social 'mechanism' may be slower to react to warnings and be less likely to illuminate danger. For example, a single female working with two male flight attendants.


FAMILY / FRIENDS

Overall, families and groups of friends tend to heed warnings and take situations more seriously. Out of habit, they tend to be more trusting, stay together; looking out for each other's interest, while being more willing to rely on each other for appropriate advice.


PERSONAL OBSERVATIONS

People tend to observe others, interpreting others' response as an indicator as to the exact nature and seriousness of the current reality. One can imagine the effect of an obviously frightened captain,


LOCATION AND FAMILIARITY

In familiar locations and situations, people tend to better interpret warnings. In unfamiliar locations or in unusual circumstances, it may be more difficult to get individuals to accept the seriousness of the warning and get them prepared to act; 'denial' re-enters.


TIMING OF THE WARNING

At night it is more difficult to heighten awareness and to effect a physical response. As a consequence, greater voice volume, stronger wording and emphasis might be required in such circumstances.


INDIVIDUAL EXPERIENCE / CONVICTION

Whether crew or passengers, the 'adaptive' response - people immediately heeding warnings - is increased with either personal knowledge or a known history of a recent or similar emergency; certainly personal experience will contribute to such a situation.


SUPPORTING INFORMATION

People, in general, usually seek more information to support their individual perception; whether with the intent of either recognition or denial. Valid and supporting information typically effects sensible responses during the warning stage of an emergency.


DECISION MAKING FACTORS

Reaction to events is normally based on the individual's faith in the presented information. There is the inherent risk that an individual could irrationally decide that since emergencies are rare, there isn't one. A correct diagnosis requires a combination of indicators to aid the decision-making process.


WARNING STYLE

The direct warning conveyance, such as a cockpit warning light or the odor of acrid smoke in the cabin will produce a decided conclusion. A radio warning, such as a known in-flight threat received from the ground staff will likely be taken very seriously.


RESPONSE OF OTHERS

People will look to the response of other people for a personal cue. If a crewmember is not taking the information seriously, the passengers not likely do so. Conversely, a frightened reaction with supporting information may induce over-reaction.


SPECIFIC MESSAGE AND STYLE

If a clear and serious message is delivered with conviction, but with a calming style; others will appropriately respond. If a captain advises the crew, "Dispatch just sent us a weather update. We have terrific headwinds ahead, so we'll do a short divert and get more fuel," the crew is likely to respond in a calm manner.


CONSENSUS

Passenger reaction is also a major consideration. People will process whatever information is given by the crew. Passengers tend to do this in small groups, especially family, peer groups or individuals of identifiable equal social status. With the message above, a family group may set the overall mood with a loud response such as, "Well, at least we'll still make happy-hour!"


PRESENCE OR APPEARANCE OF CREW

The unexpected presence of a pilot or a clear authority figure will modify passengers' views of the current situation. For example, a flight attendant's request for assistance of a deadheading captain or a uniformed serviceman will lend credibility to the situation's seriousness.


UNEXPECTED CHANGES

Even if the changes are not directly related to the emergency, any unexpected changes, such as a significant course change or a significant change in engine power will have a direct influence on the cabin crew and passengers.


PHYSICAL INDICATORS / EVIDENCE

Crew or passengers will be alert for noise, radical aircraft motion, smoke and heat. Surprisingly, smoke alone is often taken as an ambiguous warning, especially if it is light colored or low in odor. Crew and passengers may fail to respond if presented with only one indicator.


CREW INSTRUCTIONS

The physical presence of crewmembers issuing guidance and directions prompts most people to take warnings seriously. This includes crewmembers themselves. If the instructions appear to originate from an established safety procedure or drill, they will likely receive due attention.


RESISTANCE TO REALITY

Despite multiple indicators, there are those who can persist in their denial for extended periods of time, refusing to believe that a situation is, in fact, serious.

Researchers have used historic disaster models to derive a rudimentary mathematical probability of group response. Researchers have attempted to get an idea as to what percentage of involved people might readily accept the idea or fact that something is wrong, as opposed to how many might deny it. While it is impossible to make accurate predictions, the result was a least one 'acceptance model' which attempts to predict peoples' reactions to the first signs of crisis.

According to one such behavioral model:

* 10% of the group might immediately accept the reality of danger, while mentally and emotionally preparing to take action.

* 30% might be doubtful; possibly curious, and investigate the situation further.

* 60% might deny, ignore or even neglect highly obvious warning signals!


Thus, the clear mandate is for early and effective warnings and leadership.


MAXIMIZING WARNINGS

Logic aside, it is a serious mistake to assume that warnings are clear. In the case of PA deliveries, it should not be assumed that everyone has heard and understood previous announcements and are certain how to react. Warnings and instructions should be given by the appropriate crewmember as soon as the emergency information becomes specific. Whether the instructions are intended for crew or passengers, the instructions should be followed. Later, these will need reinforcement.

The pertinent instructions should be made by those perceived as being in authority, trustworthy, and in a manner which inspires confidence. They should also be specific in their content, containing pertinent information known to be, or likely to be, accurate and reliable.


The instructions should also:

* Clearly define what is to be expected and when events will occur.

* Neither under-estimate nor over-estimate the threat.

* Give the appropriate courses of action, citing their appropriateness and intended outcome.

* Be made on as personal a level as possible.

* Be in terminology and in the language understandable to the recipients.

* Be repeated as frequently as possible with short periods in between, so as to reinforce the required response.

* Never refer to similar or familiar events.

* Not include unnecessary, distracting or other unrelated information, delivered in any lapses between updates.

* Most importantly, effect acceptance of the situation and create appropriate crew and passenger commitment to action.


In the background of communication is an industry social norm that the cockpit is typically not advised of a failed or extremely low PA volume made by the pilots. Often, flight attendants simply place no value in the routine cockpit "welcome aboard" PA. As a consequence of the apathy toward the cockpit, the value of the cockpit PA capability in an emergency is overlooked. Thus, crew awareness must be maintained as to the PA effectiveness, with the mandate that an appropriate advisory is made to the cockpit. Conversely, the pilots should solicit information as to the adequacy of the cockpit PA.

The safety PAs from the cockpit should be 'dedicated,' so that there are no interruptions by unnecessary distractions, such as normal ATC communication.

If the warning phase becomes prolonged, without updated information, guidance and instruction, the crew or passengers may develop a high level of uncertainty and possibly a dangerous level of anxiety. At one extreme, there will be those who patiently wait, while mentally and emotionally preparing themselves. That group also presents the possibility of badly delayed action or inaction in the end. At the other extreme, uncertainty, tension and fear may increase to a dangerous level, causing individual anxiety or panic.

Safety demands early, accurate and clear information, with regard to crew and passengers. Quality information dictates the success of each phase of an emergency, if the information is provided in an effective manner.

Despite the known data pertaining to effective management of personnel, it is an unfortunate fact of life that emergency procedures prescribed by some cultures and organizations (such as corporations) prefer to delay warnings, thus creating an independant problem. The concern is obviously PR and panic avoidance; however, it must be acknowledged that surprise warnings are famous for producing the unwanted panic.


EMERGENCY ONSET

RESPONSE

The onset phase of an emergency implies that the warning signs, alerts and alarms have been seen, heard and accepted; it is clearly understood that the threat is real. The term 'onset' can mean either the realization that an emergency situation really exists or the actual immediate time frame when the disaster strikes. In addition to the peaked urgency and requirement for immediate action by the passengers and crew, the onset can also bring immediate injury or death. For example an uncontained engine failure can hurl fan blades into the passenger cabin, causing serious injuries and damage; while marking the beginning of an extended emergency, as a consequence. The onset period may not have any significant warning and last only seconds. Perhaps it is the ideal 'planned emergency,' lasting from warning to onset as much as an hour or more.

During the onset phase, people must recognize and accept the nature and magnitude of the threat, acting appropriately if a potential disaster is to be averted. If there is a prolonged waiting period, the time interval can be a very difficult task for people to deal with.

As an example, a crash or relatively simple emergency landing evolving into an external fire might result in a delayed evacuation. A wind condition might blow smoke on one side of the aircraft, creating the illusion that the fire is on the same side, when in fact the smoky side is the only viable escape route. Until the actual threat is ascertained, waiting might be the only acceptable option.

However short or long the onset period lasts, the most valuable time is often lost in this phase. Even when people have accepted the urgency of an emergency in progress, there is a certain risk that they might resist an appropriate course of action. The wind/smoke scenario is such an example. Being directed to evacuate into the smoke may create a panicked response, leading to the wrong reaction (delay), ultimately leading to a disaster.

The onset phase, along with the warning phase, requires the passengers and crew to accurately detect changes, collect any relevant information, interpret that information and evaluate it, so as to make decisions. Individual perceptions may result in the same information and warnings yielding convoluted understandings of the situation. Hence the individual's responses may differ once they have actually accepted the warnings.

The human response will be strongly influenced by the subjective interpretation of the situation. The response during an imminent disaster will be dictated by the actual ability or perception of the passengers' and crew's ability to cope with the immediate demands placed upon them, and upon those close to them. With time available, support and assistance of ground staff is likewise a factor.


EMOTIONAL EXPERIENCE

The onset period, however brief, is the juncture of the physical and psychological aspects of the emergency. Here, the magnitude and urgency of the reality is discovered. In extremes, imminent threat or an actual catastrophic event will cause individuals to experience a broad range of emotions and subsequent reactions.


The Emotions include:

* The effect of shock and a sense of total helplessness. This could be the dominating effect - regardless of whether or not there has been any significant period of anticipation and any preparedness.

* A reaction of numbness, a sense of unreality - accompanied by fear - with the result that the individual or group is easily influenced, even to take highly inappropriate action.

* Confusion from a lack of meaningful understanding as to the cause of the emotional and physical upheaval in their immediate environment. In turn, this can interfere with their attempts to identify, interpret and understand what is actually happening.

* Sense of 'injustice.'

* A 'flattening' of emotions, in an attempt to protect themselves against any more emotional stimulation (overload), further decreasing their willingness or ability to appropriately respond.

* A sense of lethargy as the passengers or crew come to believe or feel that there is little, if anything, they can do to improve their situation.

* An illusion of 'isolation / abandonment,' causing individuals to behave as if they are the only ones affected by the events. How they perceive the situation and how they react can inevitably cause the individual to become very focused on themselves, to the exclusion of the welfare of others. Such individuals can become a threat to others. A common image is the panicked person in the water, using another individual as a piece of driftwood, potentially drowning them, in order to ensure their own survival.

* An overpowering awareness of their frailty, against the sudden and dramatic impact of massive physical forces which may remove their sense of personal control, thus dominating their sensory perception - often with panic resulting.


To indulge in greater detail, the emotional experiences and reactions have been studied in-depth. Various studies have divided reactions into five basic categories:


INCREASED EXCITEMENT

An increased excitement and the associated focus lead to extremes of thoughts. Feelings and fears of dying may become intense.

The element of survival may become an intense focus with the affected individuals concentrating on their personal and family protection.

An intense concern for those for whom the individual has, or assumes, a primary responsibility may often surpass the individual's self-concern, particularly if the bonds are intense or a self-imposed responsibility exists. For example, a passenger electing to assume responsibility for an unaccompanied child or an elderly person.

In most cases, people often manage to gain control of their fears, so that they seem to assist the survival of others - a welcome fact to be put to good use by those tasked with managing them.


FEAR - Defined

Fear should be expected to be the dominant, rational and an appropriate response to any emergency situation.

Whether rational or unrealistic, fear produces a racing heart, dry mouth and a narrowing of attention. These are automatic reactions and a necessary part of the stress response in preparation for the classic 'fight or flight' decision / action.

Often, the individual experiences irrational fears, consciously and subconsciously. These become superimposed on realistic fears. These fears produces the expectation of loss, injury, suffering and death. The human mind will emotionally cycle during a crisis. It is very difficult to estimate the frequency of the emotional cycles containing fear. Survival produces predictable emotional self-protection reactions. A typical reaction is that people experience the irrational element of shame, consequently denying the natural emotions. Physical or mental activities, of any kind, help to combat irrational fears.

With proper leadership, the element of fear can be significantly controlled by the accurate portrayal of the reality.


SENSE OF HELPLESSNESS

A person may be confronted by their own ineffectiveness, experiencing a sense of vulnerability or possibly frailty. This is especially true if the emergency contains obvious powerful forces, producing that fear. Often that reaction comes from a previous life-threatening experience.

Fear naturally leads to a sense of helplessness. Without an apparent and viable solution, the fear can feed upon itself in a vicious cycle producing a high level of anxiety, potentially to a debilitating degree.

The feelings of helplessness evoke a subconscious control mechanism, triggering the irrational element of shame. Subconsciously the potential victim attempts to understand or gain control of the situation. It's likely that the elements of frustration and anger/rage will be directed toward other passengers and the crew - but the underlying feeling of helplessness can be expected to dominate.

The sense of helplessness will be compounded if the suspicion of physical entrapment is probable as an eventual reality. Often, survival is irrationally assumed to be unlikely. Consequently, reassurance from the crew is essential to the degree that it is a vital factor in combating the fear syndrome. The needed message is, "You are not helpless, your assistance will be needed. We will be out of this situation soon." The passenger - even the crew - needs the sense of empowerment.


SENSE OF ABANDONMENT

In emergencies, all 'normal' or 'reasonable' certainties may seem to vanish. The key element will be the existing feelings of trust, based on any previously held trust of the company, aircraft and the crew.

Anyone who senses themselves as being isolated - rationally or irrationally - will likely experience the feeling of alienation and loneliness. Often this is fed by previous experiences and historical feelings of abandonment in those events. There may be a subconscious argument to the effect of, "It's happening again!" Familiar assumptions can be expected to produce familiar emotions.

The sense of abandonment can be a powerful and dangerous element in an emergency. The result being that the sense of abandonment compounds any other feelings of helplessness.

Children separated from their parents, particularly the unaccompanied minor, are likely to be strongly affected by the missing familiar protective influence. They can be expected to fear abandonment. If possible, they need to be reunited with a family member at the earliest possible opportunity. In the case of the unaccompanied minor, a surrogate parent will be needed, whether a flight attendant or a passenger.


SHAME

In human psychology, the element of 'shame' plays an intriguing role. A self-imposed subconscious arguments assert such positions as, "I should have done X. I didn't; so therefore, I'm being punished."

To be brief, the irrational subconscious argument is essentially two-fold:

1. "I know I deserve this; therefore I can accept it." - illusion of acceptance

2. "I'm responsible for this, so if I do better, this will change." - illusion of control


The important factor being that acceptance of a threatening situation won't provide any positive outcome. Those who decide to "...go down fighting to the bitter end.." are obviously the individuals needed in an emergency.


DESPERATION FOR RELIEF

The desperation will likely be intense, normally growing with the duration of the emergency. Survival instinct will focus on the desired relief / rescue / safety in the manner of a preoccupation. The associated thoughts and yearnings will often revolve around feelings of guilt, possibly remorse. Many people focus their thoughts on lost opportunities, ranging from adventures to saying "goodbye" or "I love you" to their family.

A highly typical human response is a reappraisal of personal values and realigned intentions for their future. Most are familiar with this focus, whether from personal experience or the theme of a Hollywood movie.

The desperation factor also carries the risk of passengers deciding to 'self-medicate' with alcohol or, possibly, drugs.

If an emergency is prolonged, the majority of the passengers and crew will maintain their focus on an escape from the danger or being rescued. In the human experience, some may become overwhelmed by the anxiety and give up, wishing for death, as an escape. Thus, it is vitally important that effective reassurance be given that the action being taken is appropriate, complete and that it will be successful.

Depending on the complexity and severity of the event, the material above is focused on the passenger experience. However, of vital importance is the expected experience of the crew?


CREW EXPERIENCE

The crew experiences will be different. In the acceptance of their job, the crew will have assessed the risks to a high degree and will have been specifically trained to deal with them. In a sentence, the crew will have a certain degree of expectation of emergencies actually occuring; being better prepared, mentally and emotionally, for an emergency.

Actual reports from crewmembers vary, but often have common statements or 'themes.' What is clear is that crewmembers also experience a traumatic mental and emotional struggle. The following statements are relatively common and serve as a good descriptor of the trauma in an emergency:

"'I just couldn't think; my mind seemed to go blank."
"Someone had to remind me what to do next."
"'I had difficulty catching my breath. There were moments that I had to tell myself to breathe."
"I couldn't remember where I was. I kept forgetting what I was supposed to do next."
"'I felt as though we were suspended in time."
"I just kept thinking about my family."


Such examples indicate not only the rising stress levels, but also their impairing effect on the ability of the crew to properly function. The required effectiveness of the crew can equally be in danger of being undermined by stress.


ANXIETY, STRESS & RESPONSE

Breaks in any normal routines and expectations, particularly those directly conflicting or unusual circumstances, produce some degree of stress; imagine even a minor degree of road-rage. In an emergency, the magnitude of stress that crew members experience, and whether it will have either positive or negative effects, will partly be a function of the conviction each individual maintains as to how serious they perceive the emergency being, or is probable to become.

A key element is the crewmember's conviction as to their personal ability to meet the demands of the emergency. Equally important is the crewmember's conviction as to the crews' collective ability to deal with the emergency. There is the risk that if the individual crewmember becomes convinced that the demands are too great, and / or the crews ability to cope is inadequate, the stress levels can reach an overwhelming magnitude, even if only temporarily. A continuing electrical fire is an example of this.

Stress remains a complex issue, poorly understood and highly debated among researchers. However, the history of actual reactions to stressful situations leave a trail of indicators which can be considered fairly basic and common, to a reasonably predictable degree.

Normal operational workload leaves pilots keenly 'in tune' with the aircraft operation. To a large degree, that leaves the pilots both physically, emotionally and mentally predisposed to cope with an emergency. During their normal duties, the pilots are very close to the desired 'optimum performance level.' In the normal operational environment, an emergency isn't likely to require a radical shift of thought process, allowing a certain 'ease' in deciding when and where to focus their attention.

Within the individual situation, each crewmember's effectiveness will be subject to the same responses as the passengers, including excitation, anxiety, fear, bewilderment, feelings of helplessness, and depression. The more negative aspects of anxiety / stress response are the inability to accept support and the resistance to the open expression of fear. These factors can be further aggravated by such factors as pain, body position, distraction and noise. Pilots will be subject to their unique factors such as actual or perceived status, accountability, confidence, time pressure and fatigue effects.

The effect of anxiety and stress can be expected to interfere in an abnormal / emergency situation by reducing the crews' capacity to understand and recall information. Thus, the crew can be generally anticipated to experience problems in processing information, affecting their capacity to correctly understand and, thus, to effectively comply with appropriate instructions, and, consequently, to comply with safety measures such as checklists and standard operating procedures. Further, anxiety and stress will probably reduce the crews’ intuitive abilities to deal with unanticipated conditions and situations. However, it is also important to recognize the history of desperation having also effected brilliant solutions under stress.

Given the potential debilitating effect of anxiety and stress on flight crewmembers, it is obvious that stress and anxiety should be anticipated and alleviated as far as is humanly possible. Accident history leaves a lethal legacy in the form of a mandate for dynamic prevention, as opposed to operational rationalization.


OPTIONS AND DECISIONS

An emergency increases the demands placed on the pilots. Accordingly, the neurological system can accommodate such situations by producing the required hormones for the production of physical and mental energy. Thus, the pilots, in particular are better prepared for the classic 'fight-or-flight' response.

However, the neurological response is not exclusively the 'magic pill.' The subsequent excitation levels can potentially exceed desired limits with negative impact on the management of the emergency.

There is a certain amount of risk that the demands of an emergency can result in over-excitation. The individual's ability to function effectively can subsequently decline, perhaps only temporarily. Thus, it is also important to be aware of the limits of the human response. It is important to anticipate a normal/typical response under stress, recognizing when one's own stress response (as well as that of others) is having an adverse impact. Throughout an emergency, effective performance is essential. Gaining or maintaining that performance level is a key element of coping with the situation, in general.

Anxiety presents itself in a complex manner, requiring anticipation, recognition and management on the personal, physiological and behavioral level. Anxiety is not to be treated as a uniquely negative experience, as anxiety is also the key to the timely anticipation of threat.

The personal anxiety level is the peak of the term, ‘subjective.’ Thus, honest and clear self-assessment is required to defeat the obvious effects. Education and self-awareness are required to achieve the desired outcome. The individual has to be alert to such subjective symptoms as apprehension and fear, ‘dry-mouth,’ muscle tension, trembling and dizziness.

Of particular note is the difference between the ‘typical’ anxiety level of the individual, versus that experienced in the immediate abnormal / emergency situation. This includes a history-based assessment. Such an assessment is required to establish the real-time attitude, hopefully such as, “I’ve been through worse, we’re going to be okay.”

In that same sense, the individual needs to be cognizant of effective ‘gut feelings’ expressing themselves as anxiety. Such experience leads to such mental or verbal statements as, “I’ve got a bad feeling about this.” In consequence of such healthy responses to anxiety, additional factors may be discovered, leading to a safe outcome.

There is a broad range of differences between individuals responding to anxiety. There are those who ‘shine’ in emergencies, while there will be those who are normally ‘cool’ but who are incapacitated by the anxiety and fear in an actual emergency.

It is important to be alert for the obvious adverse indicators of stress, both in the individual and in others.


In an emergency, the effects of stress can be put into four general areas:


PHYSIOLOGICAL

These are normally short-term effects, which include: dry-mouth, sweating, increased heart rate, difficulty or irregularity of breathing. The psychological effects are also seen in the associated cognitive processes, including concentration difficulty, confusion and/or forgetfulness, the inability to prioritize or make timely decisions, difficulty in transitioning between tasks.

The physiological effects of anxiety and stress are typically viewed in the confines of the parameters of heart rate, respiration rate, blood pressure and skin condition (color / sweating).


EMOTIONAL

These include fear, anxiety and a sense of being helpless, aggression, apathy, tension and irritability.

These effects should be considered 'normal.' For short periods of time, they need not cause concern. Conversely, they serve as an indicator that the 'healthy' "fight-or-flight response has been activated; the individual is in the process of preparing themselves for the impending extraordinary action.

However, it is important that crew members recognize the reality, if their own, and others', reactions to the situation are effecting danger or interfering with their basic ability to cope with the situation or manage it.

In the absence of extremes, the individuals can then take a few simple, but effective, steps to get back on an even keel.

A basic understanding of the progression of the impairment process, however temporary is essential.

1. Acceptance that an emergency exists.
2. Nervous system activity is triggered.
3. Breathing accelerates, becoming more shallow.
4. Muscles tense with the excitation level increase.
5. Information gathering, comprehension and decision making is impaired.
6. General performance begins to decline.

The obvious requirement is to counter any such effects, restoring as much balance as possible, so as to return heart rate and blood pressure to near-optimum levels. As the excitation level drops to a magnitude near the normal level, energy is conserved, with coping skills becoming enhanced.

On a personal level, an easy method to restore balance is to consciously and deliberately slow down the rate of breathing, taking normal to deep breaths. This requires the conscious tensing of the related muscles, holding the tension for a few seconds, and then releasing the tension. The controlled holding of the breath and slowly and consciously relaxing the muscles leads to a resumption of normal breathing - as well as other important functions.

If these adverse symptoms are observed in others, encouraging them to use the technique, as appropriate, can be effective. The tone of voice will be important, "Hey chief, do me a favor & just hold your breath for a second - now let it out. Do that again a couple of more times." "Feel better now?" The impact that someone else is aware of the individual's plight and cares enough to provide any element of relief, while protecting the individual's dignity can be a terrific boost.


BEHAVIORAL

The more typical and obvious indicators include: trembling, restlessness or impulsive behavior, excitability or nervous laughing, performance of 'rituals,' such as tightening and straightening a tie, perhaps combing one's hair, extended time taken to accomplish routine or simple tasks.

The behavioral effects of anxiety and stress are expressed in the form of sweating, cold hands, tremor, rapid speech, voice pitch increase, as well as functional effects in the form of forgetfulness, fumbling, oversight and avoidance.

It is obvious that imminent threat in an emergency can be frightening for all, especially if the accident is expected to be violent or fire is anticipated. The faith in the crew's training, knowledge and experience provides some sense of protection, enabling them to cope with the stress of an emergency, allowing them to keep their emotions under some degree of control.


COMMUNICATION IN COCKPIT RESOURCE MANAGEMENT

The proper management of crew anxiety and stress is a vital part of effective Cockpit Resource Management. In particular, the function of communication changes during high anxiety and stress situations.

The expected set of events during an abnormal, or an emergency, anticipates the very worst of problems to present themselves one at a time. Unfortunately, this is not always the case. Further, training curriculums typically prohibit ‘compound emergencies.’ Thus, the flightline reality often catches the flight crew short on resources, while demanding the highest standard of strategy and communication skills.

A pilot typically expects reasonable changes such as bad weather, low fuel, go-around, diversion to the alternate or rather simple technical problems. Even with these events as being deemed, ‘reasonable,’ there is still a difference in reaction between experienced pilots and less experienced crews, within these ‘reasonable’ changes. Obviously, this divergence increases in the event of abnormal or emergency conditions.

Effective communication between the pilots and the cabin crew in an abnormal situation or a bone fide emergency requires fast paced and dynamic communication skills. Unfortunately, these skills most often come with experience, as the industry does not place an emphasis on ‘human factors’ during the course of an emergency. Again, unfortunately, communication during an actual emergency has a higher probability of breaking down, as opposed to being enhanced. An actual emergency scenario will typically contain samplings of breakdowns and enhancements, as well as intuition.

Emergency communication skills can and should be taught, but they rarely are. Crew humanity is not factored, thus, most actual emergencies depend on the best skills the individual crewmember can muster in the actual scenario. It should be noted that listening skills are equally as important as verbal skills. Emergency communication skills are ideally taught, but are more often an improvisation or unique abilities of an individual.

The frequency of abnormal situations and emergencies demand that the desired communication skills be developed through a curriculum of drills involving classroom delivery on theory and research, practice, and instructor analysis and guidance. Most importantly, attitudes toward emergencies should be developed, embodying philosophies as, “The only ‘dumb’ question is the one which is not asked.”

Anxiety and stress affect performance and communication in their effect on attention-span and the ability to acquire, recall and process information. Performance and communication are hampered by the production of irrelevant thoughts, reducing the ‘working’ memory. Anxiety and stress can also increase the required amount of effort required to maintain the ‘normal’ performance levels associated with typical low-stress conditions.

Anxiety and stress have a particularly negative effect on crew communication. The associated effects are necessary to anticipate, recognize and manage within the individual and the crew. In concert with such management is required the attitude of, “It’s not ‘wrong;’ it’s being ‘human.’”

Although CRM training, including communication skills, is supposed to involve both pilots and flight attendants, history teaches that the pragmatic effect has been negated by the non-application and reinforcement in the actual flight line experience.

The dynamics of emergency scenario communication are affected by a long list of ‘human factors,’ such as individual personality and personality conflict, experience, seniority, gender, age and ethnicity.

From a captain’s position, there are several particular communication mandates:

* Anticipation, recognition and empathy with the crews' fear and anxiety.

* A demonstrated respect for the crewmembers’ competence and identity.

* Avoidance of any discounting statements or behaviors.

* An overt indication of empathy and caring for the crewmember’s personal experience, including their immediate situation and associated problems.

* Honest and realistic assessment and assurances expressed to the crew, as opposed to false reassurances or stark reality presentations, whether actual or exaggerated.

* Verbal and non-verbal responses which enhance crew synergy.


PASSENGER RESPONSE

In the case of the passengers, the difficulties become amplified. With precious little preparation, they must be expected to accept the threat in terms of their own mortality and make radical attitude and behavior changes in a small span of time.

Risk evaluation is extremely difficult for some people under any circumstances. The typical violence of aircraft accidents becomes the epitome of chaos and confusion, compounded by the fire threat. It is vitally important that the crew takes charge quickly, preparing and effecting a constructive attitude and reaction at the first signal or (forceful) request.

Research only tells us that the complexity of human behavior defies a reliable mathematical model, permitting reasonable predictability.

Yet, statistics do offer a small degree of predictability -

Depending on the intensity/chaos of the situation, it is possible to identify three probable statistical groups:

60% may do very little, they may even engage in inappropriate behaviors, while awaiting trusted guidance.

25% may act rationally, perhaps attending to the threat or preparing their next move; they may provide warning, comfort or guidance to others.

15% may become immobile or even totally paralyzed at the actual or perceived seriousness of the situation.


INITIATIVE OF OTHERS

Those who strictly await the initiative of others sense their own limitations, trusting in the notion that others will have the necessary solution. It is a serious mistake to make assumptions as to why people become relatively immobilized. Passengers, in particular, will be affected by a broad range of experiences. The immobility can range from a strange sense of dignity or discipline to irrational fear if the next step is taken.

One group of passengers might need only clear directions to take action. Another might need some sort of 'proof' that the next step is necessary AND prudent. The second group might need forceful guidance or physical assistance.

Studies suggest that if passengers trust the quality of information they receive they are much more likely to react favorably. Conversely, if they encounter difficulty in obtaining the needed information, they may quickly become angered, aggressive and difficult to manage.

Despite standard procedures, the crew can expect the requirement to make necessary situational judgments to deal with passengers on an interpersonal level, so as to achieve the desired effect.

There will be those passengers who simply want to be told what to; they will then immediately comply.


SHOCK EFFECT

In general, time distortion is common among passengers involved in an emergency, it is common to find little or no agreement of the crisis duration following an emergency. Similarly, passengers have difficulty remembering details in general. They may not be able to cite their own address or phone number. These passengers (and crew) are the ones in the greatest need of firm guidance and assistance.

The same behavior will be seen in those who have been drinking. Alcohol may cause some to become inhibited and sleepy, while others become excited with their control over emotions diminished. Whether they require waking, calming or direct orders is something which can only be judged at the time.

In an aircraft accident, normally fire is the immediate threat. However, history teaches an important lesson, panic is far less a major concern, as opposed to inaction or inappropriate actions.


CATATONIA

Catatonia is more than instantaneous disbelief or 'freezing in place.' It can be a 'shutting-down' process; a form of mental, emotional or even physical escape. Some passengers may appear to be stunned, being unable to communicate or express any feelings or emotions, in spite of obvious signs of sweating, trembling or even nausea. Depending on the nature and phase of the emergency, some may experience tunnel vision, impaired hearing and impaired reasoning. Even with the realization of imminent threat of injury or death, they may be immobilized or react slowly; almost automatically. For these passengers, their sense of time is often radically disrupted, in a 'Limbo' effect. There is also the possibility of the individual fainting into unconsciousness, however briefly.


RATIONAL RESPONSE

The estimated 25% who can be reasonably expected to act rationally are sometimes referred to as being, 'cool heads'. These individuals appear calm; they collect their thoughts quickly. Their situational awareness is intact; their judgment and reasoning are sound. These individuals assess the situation correctly, make a plan and act appropriately.

Within reason, this group can be divided into three statistical ranges:

5% can be expected to act of their own initiative in the emergency. They will be the ones who will make an attempt to fight a fire if one is present, or prevent cabin flooding in a ditching scenario.

10% can be expected to instruct or assist others.

10% can be expected to attempt to aggressively look after themselves and may, for example, move towards any exit or safe area. Their actions may serve as an appropriate inspiration for others to follow.


The three groups compose the desired supplemental leaders who will rationally attempt to ward off any threat and inspire others to action. If they can be identified, they represent a valuable resource for the crew to take advantage of. Often, they will volunteer unique qualifications or simply their willingness to assist.

During the onset phase of an emergency, the initial actions of the 'cool heads' also display a tendency toward traditional gender roles. In general, the women can be expected to be more overtly concerned with their own and other peoples' safety. They will attempt to advise or assist others, and certainly quickly evacuate their family and themselves.

The male 'cool heads' tend to be more in tune with the "action requirement' of the situation, being more likely to attempt to fight a fire or open an emergency exit. In general, they will try to minimize risk and maximize desired action. If their assistance is needed, they will very likely try to evacuate others before themselves. Males are more willing to be separated from family, in their personal risk assessment.

Examining the structural fire scenario in particular, research indicates that the public seems more willing to fight a fire - if able - than might typically be expected. In an aircraft accident, fighting the fire is nearly impossible for passengers. However, the same population can be expected to take a leadership role in protecting passengers by ushering them to safety.

The potentially explosive nature of jet fuel is typically sufficiently famous that these same 'leaders' can be reasonably expected to act quickly and create the required distance from the potential or actual fire.

In an aircraft accident, the pilots being trapped in the cockpit can pose a unique problem. While flight attendants are taught to ensure the cockpits evacuation, the typical flight attendant may not have the physical strength to accomplish the task in the small confines of the typical cockpit. Hence, the same group of leaders can be utilized as a 'muscle' resource to extricate the pilots - if possible.

It should never be assumed that a severely damaged cockpit represents deceased pilots. Accordingly, unconscious or seriously injured pilots should not be mistaken for deceased.

While passengers, in the capacity of a resource, play a key role, this trait is not addressed with the intent of creating the impression that an expected behavior of any group in an emergency is that which conveniently fits the ideal 'heroic' model. Certainly, it is a serious mistake to depend upon the emergence of this type of individual in emergencies.

It is to be easily argued that the most logical behavior in an emergency is that of rapid escape, especially when faced with overwhelming threat. Setting aside reflexive judgments on the issue, the choice of escape is appropriate as a reasoned choice, if there is the element of self-control and a degree of rationality to the action. Escape should also be viewed in terms of it's being social and that it still recognizes the needs of others; certainly that it is not any form of panic.

Escape behaviors become inappropriate when they are ineffective; possibly counter-productive or threatening to others. Being the first through an escape hatch with a pool of fuel awaiting ignition is hardly to be admired. Beyond self-peril, the resulting open hatch obviously endangers the remaining passengers if a fire should erupts.


IRRATIONAL RESPONSES

The estimated 15% of the passengers who may demonstrate a high degree of inappropriate response during an emergency can be expected to behave in a variety of ways. The responses can range from panicked escape attempts to paralyzed anxiety or even local panic behavior. Again, escape is not necessarily an inappropriate response. It is necessary to acknowledge the possibility that it might successfully inspire others to actual safety, however risky.

When the physical and panicked escape is actually fulfilled, or is physically prevented, passengers might resort to some basic or primitive behavior such as crawling or crouching under or hiding behind something. These individuals might cling onto other people, either for either the illusion of protection or consolation.

A second irrational response is the opposite of escape - paralyzing anxiety. Here, the element of catatonia plays a role, with a sense of disbelief as the first reaction. The response might be accompanied by thoughts such as, "This can't be happening to me, this can't be real; there's some mistake, nothing bad really happened."

Such a response might exhibit uncontrolled weeping and overwhelming immobility. Passengers may stay in their seat, or, perhaps freeze in the aisle. They may need to be physically led or carried to safety. Again, some may lose consciousness.

Panic (discussed in detail later), is the extreme the inappropriate responses. With respect to emergencies, the term is defined as, "An irrational, fear-based response, which is anti-social, with the potential for reducing the escape possibilities of others." The history of aviation emergencies and accidents rarely contains the element of panic, but sufficient cases have been reported to reinforce the concern.

Panic in the emergency scenario is irrational and self-serving with little or no thought for others. Those who panic can make a difficult situation still worse - for everyone involved.

Panic is not limited to passengers. An interesting news video clip caught a captain bolting from his sliding side-window after landing with his left landing gear caught in the retracted position; minutes ahead of the first passenger egress. Needless to say, the core of the emergency leadership not only departed, but also may have undermined the effectiveness of others. In all likelihood, the remainder of the crew reacted with a rational 'revenge.'

Of those who would panic, it has been found that they may act without conscious thought for their own, or others', safety. They might be unaware of their actual surroundings, an immediate threat and any adverse impact that they might be having.

In another accident, a couple panicked, defying the instructions of the flight attendants, opened an emergency exit and exited to a flaming death below.

Unless clearly overwhelming conditions prevail, very few passengers are likely to panic. In non-aviation studies only 1% to 5% of people fall into the estimated 'likely-to-panic' category. Obviously, fire is one event likely to trigger a panic response, however, the element of fire is inconsistent in that regard.

Should passengers actually panic; their actions are likely to be completely unpredictable. They may require physical restraint with other people needed to look after them. Physical force may be required to keep them from becoming an additional threat to themselves or others.

It must be emphasized that the underlying cause is a combination of their own sense of insecurity, causing them to react to actual or perceived inadequate information or confidence in the situation or crew. With sufficient fear, they can lose their ability to think or act rationally.

The implications to flight crews are obvious - useful and meaningful information at all stages is of vital importance for the passengers - and the crew.

During these phases, families and close friends can be expected to want to be together. They will rely heavily on each other for advice, especially if the warning sources are uncertain and the impact, when it comes, is sudden. They should, whenever possible, be brought and kept together, so as to preclude supplemental problems.

With some passengers having reached their own personal estimation of threat, there may be a decision to act and/or to warn others. As a rough guide only, if left to their own devices approximately 25% can be relied on to act rationally. Such reactions are more likely if the individuals have had recent similar experiences, knowledge of similar disasters, or are with their family or a group of close friends. This group can be a valuable asset to the flight crew.

The bulk of passengers may accept the fact that there is a problem, but either take no action for some obscure reason, or be slow to do so. If it is fear or uncertainty, which is underlying the inactivity, they may be experiencing thoughts such as, "This isn't going to work" "It's too late" "No one can help me" "There's no point in even trying." Thus, it is apparent that effective command must be taken early and maintained.


EVACUATION BEHAVIOR

In elementary terms, evacuation is obviously the action of getting passengers focused on the appropriate instructions and to physically move away from a threatening environment. It is academic that they must first become aware, or at least suspect or assume, that a threat exists, referring to the so-called 'warning' phase. Next, they must accept it, in terms of the onset phase. Given that people differ in their ability to accept information during the first two phases they must quickly decide on a course of action and follow through with it.

Aircraft evacuations are independently threatening with respect to an accepted institutional ignorance on the subject. The NTSB has identified a long list of life-threatening aspects to aircraft evacuations, from aircraft design through evacuation procedures. While the NTSB has brought their issues to the FAA and Congress, little attention is being paid to the topic - by anyone. Typical behavior in the evacuation phase illustrates why this phase is so critical to survival.

Human nature dictates that anything, which is unfamiliar and unexpected, can be inherently alarming; even without an actual threat. To control or reduce anxiety, people often attempt to convince themselves, consciously and subconsciously, that what they are seeing and hearing is actually normal or at least not particularly threatening, as opposed to being an indicator that things are rapidly going wrong. The most powerful internal debate seems to be subconscious.

Such personal arguments assert that an 'apparently harmless and plausible explanation' is available and leaves them safe. Such irrational beliefs can be often accepted for considerable time, despite clear evidence to the contrary. Passengers are no different than any population in that they also tend to see and hear what they choose. They typically do not want to be forced to accept a breach in their safety assumptions.

Aircraft accidents are typically of two categories, planned - with preparations, and unplanned - extremely abrupt and with precious little time to act or react.

Aircraft are unique in that the physical angle or 'attitude' of the aircraft can send a correct or incorrect message to passengers and crew alike.


Lets examine a scenario -

A wheel brake locks-up with the aircraft taxiing for takeoff, causing sufficient heat to burst a tire. The sound of the tire burst might be puzzlement, varying to mild concern. The fact might easily be that the burst tire tore open the wing, breaking fuel lines. With the fuel spilling in the vicinity of the hot brake, a fire is impending.

If sufficient knowledge is available to the cockpit, there might be an order to evacuate. With no threat perceived by the passengers, they may sit fast, even though an undisputed evacuation order has been given. The fact that the aircraft is still upright and seemingly 'normal' can send an erroneous message to the passengers.

Now, if the fire erupts, the response is radically different with the added element of a time shortage. If the wind carries the smoke over to the safe side of the aircraft with the obvious ambiguity in the passengers' minds, they may hesitate to exit into the smoke. Conversely, they may decide of their own accord to go out the opposite side, admitting smoke and flame into the cabin itself.

With clear communication, much danger can be avoided. However, the message has to be clearly understood with the appropriate instructions and with pertinent detail and no more.


Imagine two PAs -

"Ladies & gentlemen, we seem to have blown a tire. We'll be evacuating on the right side of the aircraft only. Please leave your belongings and move to the exits now."

Or;

"This is the captain. We've had a tire burst, rupturing a fuel line with a high risk of a fire on the left side of the aircraft, flight attendants, right side only, right side only, evacuate, evacuate, right side only!"

The two messages are radically different. The second message carries authority, a command tone, accurate information, identification of the threat and clear directions (preceding the evacuation order) and evacuate the order itself, with both the directions and the action ordered.

In most cases, the second PA would compel a 100% rapid compliance.

Move to another level. Before the PA can be given, the fire breaks out with the passengers fully aware. Again, put the wind on the side of the fire, blowing smoke into the desired evacuation path. The passengers may have formed their own resolve, possibly initiating an evacuation on the wrong side. Chaos can be the result, complete with panic. The over-wing doors are opened on the wrong side, admitting smoke, the overhead evacuation lights are obscured.

While the flight attendants might be screaming instructions over the PA, is there enough volume to communicate over the panicked voices of the passengers? With overwhelming indicators, the passengers may become highly autonomous as to the immediate evacuation. They may or may not, 'get it right.'

Even the most experienced passenger may find the scenario far more confusing than they could ever have imagined. Without adequate or timely information, even crewmembers can get badly confused. In one aircraft accident, the left engine failed with an associated vibration and ambiguous engine indications. Both pilots came to the wrong conclusion, shutting down the wrong engine. Amazingly, the bad engine continued to run, until short final; then quit, with a resulting fatal crash. Having failed to validate their assumptions, a highly professional crew shut down the wrong engine, ultimately causing an unnecessary accident; with fatalities.

Aircraft emergencies often evolve rapidly. The desired time element may not be available. Waiting for clarification or instructions may not be an option.


LANGUAGE BARRIERS

From the United States, it's not uncommon to have a significant percentage of non-English speaking passengers on flights into such places as Mexico. Although certain limitations must be recognized, the boarding safety briefing must be orally presented - per the FAA regulations - with the obvious intent that the briefing is understood. By the regulations and the FAA procedural manuals, the seat-back safety briefing cards supplement the primary briefing; they do not substitute.

Such passengers can only overcome their limitation by guessing correctly or to follow someone else. With luck, they may have looked at the evacuation cards in the seat-back pockets, gaining an elementary idea as to what is expected of them. Ironically, that action may leave them better prepared than those who understand English, but didn't bother listening to the briefing or studying the cards.


Thoughts Expressed from Historic Emergencies

"The little things seemed to make a big difference."
"Most people were concerned about family and friends."
"We just wanted to know what was happening."
"We waited for whoever was in charge."
"Nobody told us anything."
"Everyone was pushing and shoving."
"We desperately wanted to know what to do."


In the event of a violent crash, the cockpit may not have the ability to communicate due to aircraft damage, injury or their demise. Such a scenario is not uncommon or unexpected. However, the command structure will have broken down, leaving the evacuation command to the flight attendants. In such a threat situation there is still the obvious need for clear information and a command structure, so that, as far as may be possible, no matter who is removed, the next person in the chain of command can, and will, step into the suspected or known breach, advising and instructing the evacuation process. Clearly, flight attendants need guidance on when to self-initiate an evacuation.

Even if the command structure has not broken down, getting the passengers to move in the required time frame and in the needed direction by those managing the situation can still be a serious problem.

Without clear information and guidance many people may remain in their seats until they are satisfied that they have a very clear mandate to evacuate. Even with adequate information and instructions, some may still be reluctant to move when required to do so. The flight attendant nightmare is when the passengers decide to take their personal belongings with them, contrary to the instructions. Between the time requirement and the obvious physical impediment, such barriers can - and have - killed.

This tendency for human response, during an emergency, to appear random and chaotic has led to the identification of a number of common and mistaken assumptions during the evacuation phase of an emergency.

For example, those responsible for the safe evacuation of people in an emergency may assume that passengers will start to move as soon as they, 'hear the order.' Unfortunately, such is not always the case. Psychological denial mechanisms can still be in place even after passengers recover from the 'brace' or 'impact' position (bent over with arms crossed, contacting the seat in front of them). The aircraft coming to a stop with a relative quiet might create a false, but welcome, sense of security.

Without overwhelming indicators, some people might still be reluctant to start evacuation procedures immediately. There might be those who abruptly elect to wait for 'further' clarity and 'kinder' instructions, or they may decide that it is just better to wait and see what happens next.

Any background panic or hysteria (screaming) could trigger a thought process to the effect of, "Well, I'm not joining in THAT." As a consequence, a different deadly delay could be effected. Seconds can be very precious in any emergency.

Even when any warnings and threat have been accepted as genuine, some people still cannot think and act for themselves.

An estimated 10-15% of the passengers may experience the 'disaster syndrome.' They will appear as being stunned, dazed and bewildered. Realistically, this response can be expected to be short lived, ultimately yielding to either hyperactivity or to the desired appropriate evacuation response. In psychological terms, the 'disaster syndrome' reaction is an 'adaptive' function which nature seems to offer as a protection for the individual from being mentally and emotionally overwhelmed by the impact of the immediate trauma.

Passengers in this group may become immobile, sitting or standing around in a passive or apathetic manner. They may seem oblivious to both the danger and the presence or the needs of others. Whether by aid of the crew or by the assistance of other passengers, they may need mild-to-forceful assistance to get away from the threat. In extreme cases they may need to be carried out. Some passengers may struggle irrationally, unable to remember how or be able to unfasten their seat belt.

An estimated 60% can be expected to understand the situation, but without clear instructions and forceful orders, they might be uncertain as to their plight and otherwise be given to changing their minds, even if they do make a decision. Fortunately, these are estimated to be more easily influenced, tending to follow the lead of the strongest person in their immediate vicinity. Unfortunately, these individuals also tend to follow such individuals even if they have made a wrong decision. These too, may become immobile, until forcefully instructed or until the threat becomes too great. This group is normally much 'stronger' in all manners and can render assistance if so instructed.

There is an incorrect assumption that the passenger motivation to escape will dominate the passenger's autonomous decisions and consequent actions. Again, passengers can be expected to initially attempt to take stock of the situation, continuing their 'normal' activity, as opposed to 'switching' into the 'escape' mentality. Hence, they must be emphatically instructed to escape. There seems to be a subconscious argument to the effect of, "control is safety," in the early portion of any phase. Passengers will tend to initially investigate, rather than immediately effect their escape.

To repeat, 10% can be expected to attempt to save themselves, acting or moving toward safety. Depending on the individual situation, another 5% can reasonably be expected to act on their own initiative and attack the problem - if possible.

10% of the passengers may repeat or originate warnings or instruct others. This group contains the passengers who may emerge as spontaneous leaders. These passengers will rationally attempt to ward off any possible threat by putting others to work. These are the individuals who can be expected to instruct others in the fashion of, "Hey! Help him get his life vest on!"

There is also the risk that passengers will tune out or simply forget recent information. The evacuation procedures can be forgotten. These passengers will tend to revert to any familiar responses, which have served them in the past, even though those responses may now be non-pertinent and totally inappropriate. Stress can also