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As the launch of the key Service Module (above) for the ISS approaches, thoughs of NASA and the Russians are wondering to what if scenerios and risk management.

Given that the Service Module actually launches, the next critical event is the docking of it to the ISS. For this, the Zarya module will maneuver carrying the Unity module behind it to dock to the Service module. This would use the automated Kurs system which has failed a few times in similar dockings in the past several years although they were all ultimately docked successfully.

Zarya carries Unity to dock to the Service Module (right)

If such a docking were not succesful in automatic modes, the Service Module would be left to fly free for a time while a crew called Increment Zero (with the first scheduled ISS crew being Increment 1). The Russian have in fact begun training such a crew, reportedly Padalka and Budarin with backups of Korzun and Treshchov. The crew dock to the Service Module and would install and use the TORU manual docking system to dock Zarya to the Service Module.

Officially, NASA ISS program manager Tommy Holloway said in May said that a crew was still being discussed, who would be on such a crew and how long they would fly and what the crew might do on the ISS other than perform the docking. It's possible the first increment crew or some members might make this contingency flight. It would certianly be a coop for Russian pride if the first resident crew of the ISS were an all Russian crew, but this is an unlikely outcome politically between the US and Russia given that the ISS is a NASA governed project.

Service Module Trainer at the Gagarin Cosmonaut Training Center

Another risk issue is orbital debris specification for the ISS, and the Service Module does not comply with the latest requirements. It is therefore planned to launch the module as planned and in a few years add additional shields on the outside of the module. Russian standards are different from NASA standards and its hard to say which are really better given a theoretical debris collision. The Russians certianly think their standard is better than NASA's but NASA is in charge of the project and paying the bills.

Another issue is sound levels in the Russian modules. Just as the STS-96 crew installed muffling devices in Zarya, future crews will install similar devices in other Russian modules like the Service Module.

The Service Module was shipped to Baykonur May 12 for continued integration prior to launch. Some equipment still has to be installed like a GPS system, Kurs equipment, etc.

Risks that Progress refuelling flights may be delayed due to economic, Service Module launch failure, or other Russian problems means that work on the ICM (Interim Control Module) are continuing. As of May it was 9 months from the capability to be launched.

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