The Jose Canseco Countdown to 500 Home Runs


As you may have heard, Jose announced his retirement on May 13th. As a huge Jose fan, I'm hoping it's a temporary retirement. It seems that guys make comebacks all the time these days. I'm sure Jose was completely frustrated with his current situation. And he had a promise from the White Sox that they would trade him to any interested teams besides those in the AL Central or in Wild Card contention. In other words, if the Devil Rays or Blue Jays wanted him, they could have him. Which wasn't likely. My hope is that after a few months off with his daughter Josie, and a little frustration behind him, maybe a contender will call in July or August and hope to sign the big guy. I know Jose would be interested again. And he can show everyone how wrong they were for not signing him. I'm assuming that retirement from a minor league contract would make him a free agent. [But if it is all over.... Thanks Jose. You were great.]


This page is designed to be a calculation of the day that Jose Canseco will hit his 500th career home run. Using Excel and a formula of my own, this page will tabulate Jose's current home run total, and the estimated amount of games until Jose hits number 500. It may not be 100% perfect, but at least it gives a rough idea of how long it'll be until Jose is locked into the Hall of Fame. Below are Jose's career numbers and his home-run-per-game average for each season. [1985 stats are combined with the strike-shortened 1994]


Year	Games	Homers		Home runs per Game

1986	157	33		0.210191083
1987	159	31		0.194968553
1988	158	42		0.265822785
1989	65	17		0.261538462
1990	131	37		0.282442748
1991	154	44		0.285714286
1992	119	26		0.218487395
1993	60	10		0.166666667
1994	111	31		0.279279279
1995	131	29		0.221374046
1996	96	28		0.291666667
1997	108	23		0.212962963
1998	151	46		0.304635762
1999     113      34                 0.300884596
2000      98      15                 0.153061224
 
2001  	76       16	       	 0.210526

Total Home Runs Hit: 462

Career Home Run per Game Average: .24483         Total Games Played: 1887

Home Runs Needed: 38            Average Games Played Per Year: 120.73

Using a calendar and mathematically calculating the days that Jose may miss due to injury (using his average-games-per-year number) I'm going to try and calculate the exact day that Jose will hit #500. The calculation can't be too exact just yet because I don't have the schedule for the 2002 or 2003 seasons, but I'll do my best.
I'm going to combine Jose's career home-runs-per-game average with his 2001 home-runs-per-game average , in the hopes that it will make the estimation more accurate. But for now I am using his career home-runs-per-game number. The estimation with Jose playing his average of 120.73 games per year is shown below.

The estimated day of home run #500 on October 7th is: On Hold.





The All-Time Lists

Click here to view the top 30 on the All-Time Home Run List.
(Jose is currently 22nd)


Click here to view the top 60 on the All-Time RBI List.
(Jose is currently 53rd)


Jose Canseco Card Trading

Click here to see my Jose Canseco card trading pages. Includes all of the
Jose Canseco cards that I need and the doubles that I have available.


Jose Canseco Links


Canseconet.com- The biggest Jose Canseco site on-line.

The Ultimate Jose Canseco Checklist- Features a large Jose Canseco card checklist.

Jose Canseco Statistics- Jose's stats straight from ESPN.com.

Canseco Online- A fairly new page. Under construction. Neat pictures.



Send e-mail to me here: Donald Byron

Established November 1998