Monday, August 08, 2005
4:30 PM
I have just posted the first predictions for the 2005 NCAA season in the NCAA prediction tracker.
Monday, August 01, 2005
4:34 PM
Here is the percetage of time a home favorite covered the spread over the last 3 seasons in the NFL.
line games covered pct
Overall 554 255 0.46029
0.0 11 4 0.36364
1.0 14 7 0.50000
1.5 22 9 0.40909
2.0 11 3 0.27273
2.5 22 13 0.59091
3.0 90 42 0.46667
3.5 33 14 0.42424
4.0 32 13 0.40625
4.5 22 14 0.63636
5.0 15 7 0.46667
5.5 29 14 0.48276
6.0 33 19 0.57576
6.5 28 14 0.50000
7.0 64 25 0.39063
7.5 27 11 0.40741
8.0 9 6 0.66667
8.5 8 5 0.62500
9.0 13 5 0.38462
9.5 11 6 0.54545
10.0 17 7 0.41176
10.5 12 5 0.41667
11.0 14 5 0.35714
11.5 3 2 0.66667
12.0 1 0 0.00000
12.5 4 1 0.25000
13.0 2 1 0.50000
13.5 4 2 0.50000
14.0 2 1 0.50000
20.0 1 0 0.00000
Here is the percetage of time a road favorite covered the spread over the last 3 seasons in the NFL.
line games covered pct
-1.0 17 5 0.29412
-1.5 14 10 0.71429
-2.0 11 2 0.18182
-2.5 20 8 0.40000
-3.0 68 32 0.47059
-3.5 21 11 0.52381
-4.0 11 7 0.63636
-4.5 11 8 0.72727
-5.0 3 3 1.00000
-5.5 9 6 0.66667
-6.0 8 3 0.37500
-6.5 11 4 0.36364
-7.0 15 4 0.2666
-7.5 7 1 0.14286
-8.0 5 2 0.40000
-8.5 4 3 0.75000
-9.5 3 1 0.33333
-10.0 3 2 0.66667
-10.5 1 0 0.00000
-11.0 2 1 0.50000
-11.5 1 1 1.00000
Overall 245 114 0.46531
12:16 PM
Here are the percentages that a home team favored by X points have won games in the NFL over the past 3 seasons.
Unless a team is favored by more than 3 points it appears anything can happen
line games correct pct
overall 553 371 0.67089
0.0 11 4 0.36364
1.0 14 7 0.50000
1.5 22 10 0.45455
2.0 11 6 0.54545
2.5 22 13 0.59091
3.0 90 51 0.56667
3.5 33 22 0.66667
4.0 32 21 0.65625
4.5 22 16 0.72727
5.0 14 7 0.50000
5.5 29 22 0.75862
6.0 33 26 0.78788
6.5 28 21 0.75000
7.0 64 41 0.64063
7.5 27 20 0.74074
8.0 9 8 0.88889
8.5 8 7 0.87500
9.0 13 9 0.69231
9.5 11 10 0.90909
10.0 17 15 0.88235
10.5 12 9 0.75000
11.0 14 13 0.92857
11.5 3 2 0.66667
12.0 1 1 1.00000
12.5 4 3 0.75000
13.0 2 2 1.00000
13.5 4 3 0.75000
14.0 2 1 0.50000
20.0 1 1 1.00000
And here are the numbers for road teams favored to win.
line games correct pct
-1.0 17 5 0.29412
-1.5 14 10 0.71429
-2.0 11 2 0.18182
-2.5 20 8 0.40000
-3.0 68 40 0.58824
-3.5 21 16 0.76190
-4.0 11 8 0.72727
-4.5 11 9 0.81818
-5.0 3 3 1.00000
-5.5 9 7 0.77778
-6.0 8 5 0.62500
-6.5 11 6 0.54545
-7.0 15 9 0.60000
-7.5 7 4 0.57143
-8.0 5 3 0.60000
-8.5 4 4 1.00000
-9.5 3 2 0.66667
-10.0 3 3 1.00000
-10.5 1 0 0.00000
-11.0 2 2 1.00000
-11.5 1 1 1.00000
overall 245 147 0.60000
Unless a team is favored by more than 3 points it appears anything can happen
