Monday, January 09, 2006
4:30 PM
I got around to doing the final NAA PerformanZ Ratings for the season today and they are now posted. Texas is the 2005 PerformanZ National Champion. The beat out USC, who were the three time defending champions of my ratings.
The 2005 Texas Longhorns scored the 3rd highest rating ever seen.
My top teams of the past few seasons:
1. 2004 USC 62.68
2. 2001 Miami 61.33
3. 2005 Texas 59.16
4. 2003 USC 57.08
5. 2005 USC 56.32
ESPN ran a series looking at how USC stacked up against the top 10 teams. I actually didn't see it and never saw how it ended up. This year's USC team only ends up 5th place over the last 5 years in my ratings. However, the 2004 USC teams gets my highest rating. USC was rising each year until they peaked last season. Their final rating is over 6 points lower than last season. That shows how domininant the 2004 USC team was last year.
The 2005 Texas Longhorns scored the 3rd highest rating ever seen.
My top teams of the past few seasons:
1. 2004 USC 62.68
2. 2001 Miami 61.33
3. 2005 Texas 59.16
4. 2003 USC 57.08
5. 2005 USC 56.32
ESPN ran a series looking at how USC stacked up against the top 10 teams. I actually didn't see it and never saw how it ended up. This year's USC team only ends up 5th place over the last 5 years in my ratings. However, the 2004 USC teams gets my highest rating. USC was rising each year until they peaked last season. Their final rating is over 6 points lower than last season. That shows how domininant the 2004 USC team was last year.
Friday, January 06, 2006
9:55 AM
Congradulations to the Texas Longhorns who won the NCAA National Championship. Vince Young had an incredible game.
The computer systems did very well in the bowl games. Including calling the Texas win over USC. At least in this case the computer ratings were better than the human polls.
The lines for the NFL wildcard games look a little off, so here is how I am calling them.
Washington +2.5, Jacksonville +7.5, Cincinnati +3, NY Giants to win.
The computer systems did very well in the bowl games. Including calling the Texas win over USC. At least in this case the computer ratings were better than the human polls.
The lines for the NFL wildcard games look a little off, so here is how I am calling them.
Washington +2.5, Jacksonville +7.5, Cincinnati +3, NY Giants to win.
Tuesday, January 03, 2006
11:12 AM
How much does schedule strength play into the NFL? 6 of the 8 teams with the weakest schedule strength made the playoffs. And that includes 3 of the 4 teams with week 1 byes. I have Denver wit hthe 4th hardest schedule and they finished 13-3. Indianapolis had the 2nd easiest schedule and finished 14-2. Only 3 playoff teams were in the top 10 hardest schedules. Washington #2, Denver #4, and New England #9.
This is one reason I am going to make my superbowl pick to be Denver vs Seattle.
Washington is hot so I wouldn't count them out.
9 of my top 10 made the playoffs. Kansas City at #6 was the top team left out of the playoffs.
My lowest rated playoff team is Chicago a team with a week 1 bye, rated #15. But since they have the home field they should still make it to the NFC championship game.
This is one reason I am going to make my superbowl pick to be Denver vs Seattle.
Washington is hot so I wouldn't count them out.
9 of my top 10 made the playoffs. Kansas City at #6 was the top team left out of the playoffs.
My lowest rated playoff team is Chicago a team with a week 1 bye, rated #15. But since they have the home field they should still make it to the NFC championship game.
10:48 AM
Now that the NFL regular season is over, here are the correlations of some statistics with team winning percentage:
0.81 Defensive points allowed
0.79 Turnover ratio
0.78 Offensive points scored
0.73 Rushing defense
0.69 Passing offense
0.63 Rushing offense
0.61 Passing defense
0.81 Defensive points allowed
0.79 Turnover ratio
0.78 Offensive points scored
0.73 Rushing defense
0.69 Passing offense
0.63 Rushing offense
0.61 Passing defense
10:38 AM
I did not post any picks for the bowl games but the computer ratings are doing extremely well so far. There have been a handfull of games where the lines was very different from the computer predictions. Two of them were yesterday when the computer were right in picking Wisconsin and West Virginia. Two teams the so called experts gave no chance to win. There is one final game in which the computers and the line have a big disagreement and it is the big one, USV/Texas. The line is USC by 7.5 points but the computer have Texas as almost a 1 point favorite. This championship game is #1 vs. #2 but it is also human poll vs. computer rating. The polls have USC #1 while the computers have Texas #1.
I can't believe how highly people are putting USC, all the evidence is pointing to a close game or even an upset.
I can't believe how highly people are putting USC, all the evidence is pointing to a close game or even an upset.
