A CAUTIONARY TALE
Building With Pitching Prospects
The Pirates in the last few years have placed great store in their pitching prospects. They drafted a pitcher first for six years running, from 1998 to 2003. They've also repeatedly presented young pitchers like Sean Burnett, John Van Benschoten and Bryan Bullington as the team's salvation, the players to lead the Bucs out of the wilderness of twelve consecutive losing seasons. It'll have to be the young pitchers, because the Pirates: lack talent at the major league level, as their record amply shows; are unable or unwilling to spend the money necessary to acquire established major league talent; and have an assemblage of minor league hitting prospects that's widely regarded as one of the weakest in baseball.

Unfortunately, the grim reality of developing pitching prospects has begun to settle into the Pirate organization. Here's what has happened to those six first-round pitchers:

Clint Johnston (1998) — Due to injury and control problems, he never got out of class A. He's drifted to other organizations, trying to make it as a hitter.

Bobby Bradley (1999) — Bradley has had both Tommy John and shoulder surgery. He rebounded in AA in 2004, but he again missed part of the season with an injury and may return to AA to start 2005. He has only one option left, which greatly limits his chances of making it in Pittsburgh.

Sean Burnett (2000) — He made a promising major league debut in 2004, but eventually had to have Tommy John surgery. He's unlikely to contribute in Pittsburgh before 2007.

John Van Benschoten (2001) — He struggled in both AAA and the majors in 2004, then had surgery to repair a slightly torn labrum. If he recovers fully from the surgery—most pitchers don't—he's also unlikely to contribute in the majors before 2007.

Bryan Bullington (2002) — The top overall pick, Bullington lost his velocity and the bite on his slider after turning pro. He's uniformly left observers unimpressed in his two seasons. Unless his stuff somehow returns, he's unlikely to be more than a borderline reliever.

Paul Maholm (2003) — Not regarded as having a high ceiling when selected, Maholm was making satisfactory progress when he was seriously injured when hit in the face by a line drive. He missed much of the 2004 season, struggled badly on his return, and had to have a second surgery. The Pirates hope he'll be fully recovered by 2005.

This litany of woes should make clear not only the risks involved with young pitchers, but the significant time lag involved in getting them to the majors and acclimated there. If all goes well from this point on—What are the odds of that?—guys like Burnett and Van Benschoten still face the lengthy process of getting acclimated to the majors. With pitchers who don't have the awesome stuff and command of a Mark Prior, this can take several years. Realistically, if this group of young pitchers is ever going to lead the Pirates to success, it's going to take until 2009 or 2010.

The Pirates' experience with young pitchers is far from atypical. Of all the teams in recent years that have had significant pitching talent coming through their system, the one that appears the most similar to the Pirates is the Chicago White Sox around the beginning of the new millenium. The Sox had pitching depth similar to what the Pirates have. Their system was much more highly rated, though, as their pitchers were regarded as having higher ceilings than the Pirates' top prospects. The Sox were rated at or near the top of all the farm systems by Baseball America and other observers for several years, while the Pirates are regarded as being no better than upper-middle in talent.

The White Sox' young pitching talent was expected to make them one of baseball's dominant teams for years. Unlike the Pirates, they already had good hitters in the majors, and also unlike the Pirates, they had a few highly regarded hitting prospects, such as Joe Borchard, Carlos Lee, Joe Crede and Aaron Rowand. So what happened? Here's a look at all the pitchers who rated among the Sox' top ten prospects from 1999 through 2002, according to BA:

Aaron Myette (1999-3rd, 2000-3rd): Myette has never adjusted to the majors. Over six seasons he's totalled 47 games, 30 starts, and a record of 6-12, 8.16.

Kevin Beirne (1999-6th): Beirne pitched a little, mainly in relief, and ended up in Japan.

Jon Garland (1999-8th, 2000-2nd): He's become a decent, mid-rotation starter. In five seasons, he's gone 46-51, 4.69.

Pat Daneker (1999-9th): Daneker was hurt and never pitched in the pros after 1999. He resurfaced in indy ball in 2003, pitching poorly.

David Lundquist (1999-10th): Lundquist also ran into injury problems, missing all of 2003. He threw 44 innings in parts of three seasons with a 6.90 ERA.

Kip Wells (2000-1st): The Sox grew impatient when Wells struggled for two seasons. They traded him to the Pirates and he's shown the ability of a #2 starter, but has run into health problems and is a question mark for 2005.

Jason Stumm (2000-5th, 2001-10th): Stumm has missed most of each of the last five season with injuries. He's pitched only briefly above class A.

Matt Ginter (2000-7th, 2001-4th): Moved to the bullpen, Ginter struggled in parts of four seasons in the majors, then pitched respectably as a starter for the Mets in 2004. He's expected to pitch in relief in 2005. He's gone 4-3, 5.32 so far overall.

Dan Wright (2000-8th, 2001-5th): Wright has struggled in parts of four season, and missed most of 2004 due to injury. So far he's gone 20-26, 5.65.

Lorenzo Barcelo (2000-9th, 2001-6th): A very hard thrower, Barcelo was thought to be a future closer. He pitched briefly for the Sox and showed promise, but missed most of 2001-03, and all of 2004, with injuries.

Mark Buehrle (2000-10th): Despite never being one of their most highly rated prospects, Buehrle has become the Sox' ace. In five seasons, he's gone 69-45, 3.76.

Jon Rauch (2001-1st, 2002-2nd): BA's minor league player-of-the-year in 2000, Rauch has struggled since to stay healthy. He's also struggled in his brief major league trials and has moved on to the Nationals. He could make their bullpen in 2005.

Brian West (2001-7th): West struggled when he reached AA, then missed half of 2003 and all of 2004 with injury.

Josh Fogg (2001-9th): Traded to the Pirates, Fogg has become a solid 5th starter.

Corwin Malone (2002-3rd): Briefly regarded by some as one of the top LH pitching prospects in the minors, Malone ran into control problems when he reached AA, then got hurt and missed all of 2004.

Matt Guerrier (2002-4th): Traded to the Pirates, Guerrier didn't show the kind of stuff in AAA that would get him to the majors. He pitched briefly and poorly for the Twins in 2004.

Kris Honel (2002-7th): The Sox' 1st round pick in 2001, Honel missed most of 2004 with an injury.

Dennis Ulacia (2002-9th): Ulacia struggled for three years in AA and finally reached AAA in late 2004.

The Sox' experience provides little reason to be optimistic about the Pirates' approach of staking all their hopes of success on their young pitchers. Despite similar depth and higher ceilings—probably only Zach Duke has shown the potential that Wells, Rauch, Malone and Garland showed—the Sox have not been able to assemble anything close to a good rotation from all their talent. Of course, they let some useful pitchers go, Wells and Fogg in particular. That, however, is part of the danger of developing pitchers. Pitching is so subtle an art that it's extremely difficult to predict how a young pitcher will develop, which raises the risk that a team will trade, or give up on, the wrong pitcher. The Pirates have done this themselves: ironically, the Pirate pitching prospect from recent years who's had the most success so far in the majors is Chris Young, whom they traded, in effect, for nothing.

Even if the Sox had kept all the right pitchers, their rotation would look something like this:

Buehrle — Wells — Garland — Fogg — Rauch.

That wouldn't be a horrible rotation, but it probably wouldn't even be as good as the one the Pirates will field in 2005. It certainly wouldn't be nearly good enough, either in 2005 or in any future year, to carry a team to the playoffs. Yet that's exactly what the Pirates expect their young pitchers to do, because they've chosen not to try to sign and develop hitting talent. It's not a pretty picture . . . and I haven't even mentioned the Wilson/Isringhausen/Pulsipher Mets.

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